Peak IT: why digital may stop delivering value
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What if digital stops delivering value? Jonas Söderström • InUse Experience TDC • Oktober 2014 • Trondheim
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Transcript of Peak IT: why digital may stop delivering value
What if digital stops delivering value?Jonas Söderström • InUse Experience
TDC • Oktober 2014 • Trondheim
or
Peak IT?Ju
dith
/ Fl
ickr
are we approaching
@jonas_blind_hen
@inuse_swe
#TDConf
Digital funktion och passion
Stockholm • Göteborg • Malmö
FUTURE(Back to the)
Now
vern
hart
/ Flic
kr
vern
hart
/ Flic
kr
One strong metaphor for
what’s happening:
Moore’slaw
But let’s get backto the 60’ies
Moore himself!
A new chip!
1968: Sweden in 200024 of the most in!uential scientists, entreprenuers
3 months vacation60.000 SEK/month4 hrs working day
60.000 SEK/monthIn 1968 value
499.274 SEK/monthIn 2014 value
But, well ...
Financial Times Oct 26, 2014
Productivity falling
A slowdown in technical progress is the reason usually given for this
progressive deceleration in productivity growth.
”
”
?
Economist Oct 4, 2014
The s-shaped
curve
Law of diminishing
returns
Antibiotics
Resistance
Motorways
Traffic jams
After 5 years of construction to widen I-405, traffic is slightly
slower than beforeThe "fundamental rule" of traffic. Vox, Oct 23, 2014
Peak X
Have we reached PEAK IT?
How hard can it be?
””
...for example, a payroll system?
Wrong salaries for 2 yrs.2 757 hrs overtime
Wrong salaries for 1 yrs...
Recently:Three of the biggest
Swedish banksditched efforts to build
new platforms, with total losses of well over 10 billion SEK.
from 145 to 313 click
With new system
Renew weapons license:
mean 2 hrs 52 mWrite report, one case of shoplifting:
Why?
Alt 1: Everyone is an idiot
Alt 2: Method is wrong...
... and lean and agile will save us!
Alt 3: Exponentially
increasing complexity
4 6
+1
5 10
+4+1
+1
6 15
+5+1
Karolinska University HospitalLibrary, 18 Feb 2014
110 employees
117 systems
§
EU
The EVIL TWIN of Metcalfe’s law
difference between theory and real-world
results
slowdown, caused by system effects
/ Flickr
BEGINNING OF CURVE
PEAK
?Future?
Have we reached PEAK IT?
Government?Bank?
Coolstartup! Disruption!
Digitalisation affords
bureaucracy
”Software is eating the
world”
Everything that eats, also produces
excrement.
No more highways
Build smaller things
New York High Line
Copenhagen bicycle bridge
Thanks!Mail:[email protected]
Twitter:@Jonas_Blind_Hen
Web:inuse.sejavlaskitsystem.sestupidsystem.se
Slideshare:Jonas_inUse
