Pathways to Deep Decarbonisaon in Mexico -...
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Pathways to Deep Decarbonisa2on in Mexico APERC Annual Conference 2017 Grand Prince Hotel Shin-Takanawa Tokyo, 16-17 May 2017 Jordi Tovilla Scien2fic Director Tempus Analí2ca A.C. Session 2: Considera.ons for development of a Low Carbon (2°C scenario) for APEC
Transcript of Pathways to Deep Decarbonisaon in Mexico -...
PathwaystoDeepDecarbonisa2oninMexico
APERCAnnualConference2017GrandPrinceHotelShin-TakanawaTokyo,16-17May2017
JordiTovillaScien2ficDirectorTempusAnalí2caA.C.
Session2:Considera.onsfordevelopmentofaLowCarbon(2°Cscenario)forAPEC
Contents
• Mainelementsoflow-emissionpathways
• GeneralmethodologyoftheDeepDecarbonisa2onPathwaysProject
• DDPPMexico–Results
• DDPPMexico–Challenges&Opportuni2es
• Keymessagesaboutvalue&prac2cality
Low-emissionpathwaysmustshow(indica2ve)sectorialtargets&2melinesfor1.5-2°C,star2ngnow• Low-emissionpathwaysmustcontain2melineswith5y
milestonesallthewayfromtodayto2050orbeyond– Timelinesnotonlyofemissions(laggingindicator)butofdriverssuchas
regula2on,investment,consump2onpaUerns(leadingindicators)
– Timelinesmustshowhowplannedchangesdriveevolu2onofrealopera2ngfleetstandardsetc.Steepcurvessuspect/expensive
– Targetsmustrespondto1.5-2°Cambi2on,soclearly<2tCO2e/capby2050ontrajectorytonear-zeronetemissions.TRANSFORMATIONAL
– Indica2vesectorialbreakdownsarerequiredtolinkon-goingpolicydiscussions(“SoyouwantlessambiFoninthissector?That´sfinebut,inorderbeconsistentwiththetarget,whichothersectorsshouldincreaseit?”)
• Credibleplansalsoneedpoli2calleverstoplaceenvironmental&energyconcernsatcoreoffinancial,economicandinfrastructureplanning
DeepDecarbonisa2onPathwaysProjectGeneralMethodology
• DOWNWARDATTRACTOR=1.6tCO2/personby2050
• BACK-CASTextrapola2onfrom2050topresentstate
• PILLARSOFDECARBONISATIONofenergysystems1. Highenergyefficiency2. Electrifica2onofendusesofenergy3. Ultralow-Celectricity(emissionfactor∼30gCO2/kWh)
• Informa2onprocesspriormodelling– Literaturereview:diagnosis,futureofficialtrends&poten2als– Expertopinion:nichetechnologiesandcomplexdrivers– Newindicators:gapsininforma2on– Futurevision:gapsinstructuredplanning
Reducedmi2ga2oncontribu2onfromsomesectorsorbranches(industry&freighttransport)isdueonlytopresentlackofsectorialcharacterisa2onanddefini2onofdeepdecarbonisa2onpoten2al
DeepDecarbonisa2onPathwaysMexicoResults0.Emissionsconsistentwith2°C
Energy-relatedCO2emissions.DDPPscenarioMtCO2e
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Sectorialinterven2onshaveimplica2onsinenergy,emissionsandinfrastructureroll-out
DeepDecarbonisa2onPathwaysMexicoResults1.Energyefficiency
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PassengertransportmodeTrillionpassenger-km
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DeepDecarbonisa2onPathwaysMexicoResults2.Electrifica2onofenduses
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ReferenceHighNGCC+latenuke
Electricitygenera.onTWh
Higherresolu2oninpowersectortohighlightshort-termofficialplansvs.alterna2vefocusinginboth,long-termdecarbonisa.onandenergysecurity
DeepDecarbonisa2onPathwaysMexicoResults3.Electricitydeepdecarbonisa2on
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MILESEnergySecurityShort-termhighrenew
Preliminaryscenario
DeepDecarbonisa2onPathways/MILES*ProjectCurrentworkinMexico• Detailedmodellingoftheevolu2onofpowerinfrastructure
– Gridintegra2on&balancingofearlyhigh-SPVtoavoidNGCCbuild-up– Infrastructurecostofalterna2vepathwaysandsensi2vitytoNGprices
• Deepanalysisoftransporta2on’smaindynamicstostrengthenDDPPtools(dashboard)tostructuredialoguebetweenpolicymakersandtransportandenergyexperts
• Dynamicmodellingofstructuraltransforma2ons– Rigorousanalysisofchangingdynamicsandsystemevolu2oninMexico– Interac2onsofsupply&demandflexibili2es:gridarchitectureevolu2on,
largebalancingareas,demandmanagement,novelbusinessmodels
• MacroeconomicmodellingtoassessimpactsofpathwaysinsectorialGDP,jobcrea2on,responsetopricesignals,etc.
*ModellingandInformingLow-EmissionStrategies(MILES),aresearchcon2nua2onofDDPPandaEUini2a2veimplementedbyIDDRI-France,seekstodevelopthecapaci2estoconduct,inallpar2cipa2ngcountries,analysesatthedegreeofdetailthatisnecessarytoplanforinvestmentsandpolicies,andunderstandthesocio-economicimplica2onsofpolicychoices.
DeepDecarbonisa2onPathwaysMexicoChallenges&Opportuni.es
• Detaileddatamissing
• NoofficialsupporttoothermessagethanNDC
• Verylimitedresourcesasindependentthink-tank
• Moredatamissingfordetailedmodelling
• Developnewindicators
• Foundindependentresearchthink-tank(TempusAnalí2caA.C.)
• Generatehigh-valueresearch-networkstructure(EE,UN-SDSN,IDDRI,Gov.)
• GotoJapan&meetwithexperts–expandnetwork
Challengefaced Solu2on/opportunity
Keymessagesaboutvalue&prac2cality
• IncrementalchangestoenergysystemswillnotdecouplethemfromCO2in2metomeetParistargets–>atransforma.veplanisneeded
• ADDPPstylestudyprovidesaquick,yetusefulexplora2onoftechnologyscenariostoachieveemissionsconsistentwith2°C,andtheinter-sectorialdependenciesinvolved,bycombiningdetailedcountryinforma2onandexpertknowledge
• Evenatearlystages,resultsincludeindicatorsofstrategicimportancetocountriesandthesescenariosshowwhatpoten2ally-disrup2vehigh-valuefuturetechnologiesandmarketscouldlooklike;thisispar2cularlyrelevanttopolicy-making
• Formula2onofdeepdecarbonisa2onpathwaystowards2050canhelpiden2fynotonlyalow-carbondevelopmentroutemapconsistentwithmi2ga2ongoals,butalsotheresearchagendaneededforsustainedinvolvementofprivatesector,academiaandorganisa2onsofsociety
Forexample,currentdiscussioninMexicoaroundNG
Evenatanaggregatestage,thiskindofanalysishelpshighlightrelevanthigh-levelconclusions,suchasthepoten2alburdenoffuturestrandedassetsunderdifferentscenarios
PotenFalnegaFveimpacts
• High(possiblylost)infrastructurecosts
• Technologicandemissionslock-inbeyondmid-century(+40years)
• Compe2ngdivestmentfromrenewablesandgridupgradetofossils
• Societallock-ininpastinsteadfutureoftechnologies
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AboutTempusAnalí2caA.C.
• Newclimate,energyandinnova2onthink-tank,basedinMexicowithlinkstoUS,France,andLa2nAmerica(AILAC)
• Establishedtodevelopandcommunicatetools,analysesandstrategiesforthetransi2ontoasustainableeconomy
• Technicalprofessionalswithpublicandprivatesectorexperienceinclimatepolicy,energysystemplanning,corporatestrategyandtechnologicalinnova2on
• StaffinvolvedinMexico´sclimateandenergypoliciesanddocumentssince2012GeneralClimateChangeLaw
• AuthorsofDDPPMexico
• Moreinforma2onatwww.tempus-anali2ca.org
