Pascal’s WagerPascal’s Wager

Epistemic ReasonsEpistemic Reasons

Epistemic reasons to believe are related to truth.Epistemic reasons to believe are related to truth.

If I believe there is a God because I think the If I believe there is a God because I think the evidence supports this belief, then my belief is evidence supports this belief, then my belief is epistemically justified. I believe because I think epistemically justified. I believe because I think its likely to be true.its likely to be true.

The ontological argument, the argument from The ontological argument, the argument from design, and the argument from contingency try design, and the argument from contingency try to provide an epistemic reason to believe that to provide an epistemic reason to believe that there is a Godthere is a God

Causal reasonsCausal reasons

Sometimes we explain why somebody holds Sometimes we explain why somebody holds a belief by appealing to its causes.a belief by appealing to its causes.

““I believe that God exists because I am I believe that God exists because I am afraid of death” afraid of death”

““I believe we should vote Democratic I believe we should vote Democratic because I was raised as a Democrat”because I was raised as a Democrat”

A causal reason does not need to be an A causal reason does not need to be an epistemic reason. It is independent of epistemic reason. It is independent of epistemic justificationepistemic justification

Prudential reasonsPrudential reasons

Some beliefs might be in my interest to Some beliefs might be in my interest to hold.hold.

For example, If I am sick it might be in my For example, If I am sick it might be in my interest to believe I will get better—interest to believe I will get better—Optimism may actually improve my Optimism may actually improve my chances of recovery.chances of recovery.

Pascal thinks that there is a prudential Pascal thinks that there is a prudential reason to believe in God.reason to believe in God.

1. Either God exists or God does not1. Either God exists or God does not2. If God exists and I believe I gain a great 2. If God exists and I believe I gain a great

deal (heaven)deal (heaven)3. If God exists and I don’t believe, I lose 3. If God exists and I don’t believe, I lose

little.little.4. If God does not exist and I believe, I lose 4. If God does not exist and I believe, I lose

little if anythinglittle if anything5 If God does not exist and I don’t believe I 5 If God does not exist and I don’t believe I

gain little gain little

In believing I risk a little to gain eternal In believing I risk a little to gain eternal happinesshappiness

In not believing I risk a lot, in order to gain In not believing I risk a lot, in order to gain relatively littlerelatively little

Therefore, it is rational to believe in GodTherefore, it is rational to believe in God

CriticismsCriticisms

Is the belief that you get from the wager a Is the belief that you get from the wager a real belief?real belief?

Does the wager accurately reflect all the Does the wager accurately reflect all the real possibilities? (what about the possible real possibilities? (what about the possible God that damns to Hell all Christians? God that damns to Hell all Christians? Doesn’t this negate the possible Christian Doesn’t this negate the possible Christian God who damns all non-Christians?God who damns all non-Christians?