Pasadena Foothills Association of Realtors Leslie Appleton ......2017 Forecast Report Card SFH...

Pasadena Foothills Association of Realtors

October 25, 2017

Leslie Appleton-Young

Chief Economist & Vice President

FREE 45-Hour Online CE Package in 2017

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2017 Forecast Report Card

SFH Resales (000s)

% Change

Median Price ($000s)

% Change

30-Yr FRM

Housing Affordability Index

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016

Actual

416.7

1.8%

$502.3

5.4%

3.6%

31%

1.6%

2017

Forecast

413.0

1.4%

$525.6

4.3%

4.0%

29%

2.2%

2017

Projected

421.9

1.3%

$538.5

7.2%

4.0%

29%

2.1%

•US economic and job growth expanding

•CA economy out-preforming the nation – maybe not

•Rates rising in response to growth & Fed policy

•Affordability challenges for first time & repeat buyers

•Boomers aren’t moving – if they do they lease more often

•Millennials leaving the nest & the state “getting a life”

•Listings & new units remain low wrt trend & demand

•Hang-over - Formerly owner-occupied units now rentals

What to expect in 2018

Macro Economic Outlook

Stronger Economic Growth in Q2 Consumer – Led Economy

3.1%

GDP 2017-Q2

1.2%

Job Growth

Sep 2017

4.2%

Unemployment

Sep 2017

3.3%

Consumption

2017-Q2

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2005 2008 2011 2014 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Q4-16

An

nu

al P

erc

en

t C

ha

ng

e,

Ch

ain

-typ

e (

20

09

) $

2016: 1.6% 2017(p) 2.1% 2018(f) 2.3%

Economic Growth

ANNUALLY QUARTERLY

2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1946 (-2.8%)

SERIES: GDPSOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

201

3

201

5

201

2 Q

2

201

2 Q

4

201

3 Q

2

201

3 Q

4

201

4 Q

2

201

4 Q

4

201

5 Q

2

201

5 Q

4

201

6 Q

2

201

6 Q

4

201

7 Q

2

An

nu

al P

erc

en

t C

ha

ng

e

2016: 2.7%; 2017 Q2: 3.3%

Consumers Driving the Economy

ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE

ANNUALLY QUARTERLY

SERIES: Personal Consumption

SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

September 2017: 119.8

Confidence? Holding on to “Trump Bump”

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

IND

EX

, 1

00

=1

98

5

SERIES: Consumer ConfidenceSOURCE: The Conference Board

August 2017: 2,456.2

S&P 500: Historic Highs

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Mo

nth

ly A

ve

rag

e

January 2010 – October 05, 2017

Mortgage Rates: Surged Post-Election

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

FRM

ARM

3.85

3.18

3.81

3.16

MONTHLY WEEKLY

SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM

SOURCE: Freddie Mac

California Job Growth Slowing

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

An

nu

al P

erc

en

t C

ha

ng

e

California US

SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment

SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

CA 1.6%

US 1.4%

September 2017: US 4.2% & August 2017: CA 5.4%

Extremely Tight Labor Markets

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

US-CA CA US

SERIES: Unemployment Rate


-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

MO

NTH

TO

MO

NTH

CH

AN

GES

Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million

Since Jan’10: +2.4 million

California 7 Year Jobs Recovery

SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Employment By Region

Aug 2017 Aug 2016 Change % Change

Southern California 9,155.0 9,053.8 101.2 1.1%

Bay Area 3,640.4 3,590.3 50.1 1.4%

Central Valley 2,213.8 2,177.6 36.2 1.7%

Central Coast 537.6 529.9 7.7 1.5%

North Central 150.9 145.5 5.4 3.7%

CALIFORNIA 16,777.8 16,512.7 265.1 1.6%

Nonfarm Employment (Thousands)

SERIES: Total Nonfarm EmploymentSOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

-1.1%

-0.4%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.5%

1.0%

1.2%

1.5%

1.6%

1.8%

2.2%

2.7%

4.0%

6.0%

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Nondurable Goods

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Retail Trade

Durable Goods

Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities

Finance & Insurance

Admistrative & Support & Waste Services

Information

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Wholesale Trade

Government

Leisure & Hospitality

Health Care & Social Assistance

Educational Services

Construction

Annual Percent Change

Construction Jobs Lead Growth

SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry


August 2017: CA +1.6%, +265,100 (YTY)

U.S. Economic Outlook

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018f

US GDP 2.2% 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3%

Nonfarm Job

Growth1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2%

Unemployment 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 4.2%

CPI 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.2%

Real Disposable

Income, % 3.2% -1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 3.0%

30-Yr FRM 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.3%

SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

California Economic Outlook

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018f

Nonfarm Job

Growth2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.6% 1.2%

Unemployment

Rate10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.2% 5.5% 4.8% 4.6%

CA Population

(Million)38.0 38.4 38.7 39.1 39.4 39.7 40.0

Population

Growth0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%

Real Disposable

Income, % Change4.7% -1.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 4.1% 4.3%

SERIES: CA Economic Outlook


Abundance of Uncertainty

Tax Reform

President Trump’s tax reform proposal includes changes that will increase the cost of homeownership. Do you expect its effect to be:

Tax reform passes, Sales Down & Prices Flat

14%

5%

37%

57%

48%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

On Prices On Sales

Up Down Same/Flat

SERIES: 2017 EXPO FUN SURVEY

SOURCE: C.A.R.

Impact of Tax Reform

Two Provisions on the Individual Tax Reform Proposal:

- Doubling the Standard Deduction

- Repeal the state and local tax deduction

Impact on the housing market:

- The repeal of the state and local tax deduction increases the cost of

owning a home

- Incentives of using MID as a tax saving tool as a homeowner would be

nullified

- Home values decline as these tax saving advantages vanish

Impact of Tax Reform on the Housing Market

- The proposed tax reform would lead to fewer sales transactions as

the tax incentives of being a homeowner vanish for many who

want to purchase a property. Home sales would decline 3.4

percent if the proposed tax reform were to be implemented

- The decline in home values would also lead to homeowners’

reluctance to put their property on the market and further tighten

up the housing supply condition in California. An estimated 1.5

percent would be lost in the first year after the implementation of

the tax reform.

Incentives for Homeownership Obliterated

• First-time buyers ($100K income, $437K home) - federal tax

incentive to own vs. rent drops from $3,291 to zero in the first year.

• Typical buyers ($120K income, $533.5K home):

$5,782 to $362 in the first year.

• Mid-range buyers ($150K income, $615K home):

$8,099 to $1,334 in the first year.

• High-end buyers/SF/LA Metro Buyers ($200K income, $1.2M home):

$16,615 to $5,725 in the first year.

Tax Expenditures Estimates: CA

173.8

74.5

226.7

34.8

0.0

34.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

Mortgage Interest

Deduction

Property Tax Deduction Mortgage Interest &

Property Tax Coimbined

Deductions for Mortgage Interest and

Property Taxes in California

(FY2018-2027)

Current Law Comprehensive Tax Reform Option

Housing Market Trends

C.A.R. Membership & SF Sales

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

197

1

197

3

197

5

197

7

197

9

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

201

3

201

5

201

7

Home Sales

Membership

Sales Peaks: 1978, 1988, 2004-05

Membership Peaks: 1980, 1990, 2006

California, Sept. 2017 Sales: 436,920 Units, +2.6% YTD, +1.7% YTY

Sales Stalled With Strong Fundamentals

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


Sep-17:

436,920Sep-16:

429,760

Sales Began 2017 Strong … Growth Slowing

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


11.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17

Year-over-Year % Chg

Avg. year-over-year % chg. = 3%

California, September 2017: $553,490, -2.1% MTM, +7.2% YTY

CA Median Price Up 7.2%YTY

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000P: May-07

$594,530

T: Feb-09

$245,230

-59% from

peak

Sep-17: $553,490Sep-16:

$516,450

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

YTY

% C

hg

. in

Pric

e

Condo Single-Family Homes

Home Price Appreciations Have Moderated Since Mid 2013

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


Southern California: Peak vs. Aug 2017

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes


RegionPeak

Month

Peak

PriceAug-17

%Chg Fr

Peak

Orange Jun-07 $775,420 $789,000 1.8%

San Diego May-06 $622,380 $605,000 -2.8%

California May-07 $594,530 $565,330 -4.9%

Los Angeles Sep-07 $625,812 $575,130 -8.1%

Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $640,000 -10.0%

Riverside Jun-06 $431,710 $388,500 -10.0%

Inland Empire Jun-06 $389,380 $341,340 -12.3%

LA Metro May-07 $578,700 $499,970 -13.6%

San Bernardino Aug-06 $350,290 $269,950 -22.9%

Central Coast: Peak vs. Sep-2017



RegionPeak

Month

Peak

PriceSep-17

%Chg Fr

Peak

Monterey Aug-07 $777,000 $569,900 -26.7%

San Benito Jun-05 $671,190 $508,500 -24.2%

Santa Barbara Jul-07 $878,120 $707,000 -19.5%

California May-07 $594,530 $549,460 -7.6%

Santa Cruz Oct-07 $865,000 $845,000 -2.3%

San Luis Obispo Oct-05 $619,950 $607,500 -2.0%

Central Valley: Peak v. Current Price



RegionPeak

Month

Peak

PriceAug-17

%Chg Fr

Peak

Madera County Feb-08 $275,000 $263,500 -4.2%

California May-07 $594,530 $565,330 -4.9%

San Benito County May-05 $671,190 $600,000 -10.6%

Sacramento County Aug-05 $394,450 $348,000 -11.8%

Placer County Aug-05 $527,990 $462,000 -12.5%

Kings County Mar-06 $268,050 $225,000 -16.1%

Tulare County Dec-05 $269,710 $224,900 -16.6%

San Joaquin County Jun-06 $426,830 $355,000 -16.8%

Fresno County Jun-06 $313,500 $259,000 -17.4%

Stanislaus County Sep-05 $370,100 $294,290 -20.5%

Kern County Jun-06 $299,920 $235,100 -21.6%

Merced County Oct-05 $344,610 $250,000 -27.5%

Glenn County Feb-07 $312,500 $225,000 -28.0%

Bay Area: Peak v. Current Price



Region

Peak

Month

Peak

Price Aug-17%Chg Fr

Peak

San Francisco May-07 $972,010 $1,380,000 42.0%

San Mateo Oct-07 $1,020,000 $1,375,000 34.8%

Santa Clara Oct-07 $865,000 $1,150,000 32.9%

Alameda May-07 $709,420 $867,500 22.3%

Marin Jun-07 $1,149,390 $1,207,120 5.0%

Sonoma Jan-06 $650,330 $625,500 -3.8%

California May-07 $594,530 $565,330 -4.9%

Contra Costa May-07 $698,420 $627,860 -10.1%

Napa Jun-07 $729,170 $654,000 -10.3%

Solano Jun-07 $492,800 $410,000 -16.8%

Note: Not including transactions in foreclosure.

What Recovery Looks Like

97.5%

1.3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Equity Sales Short Sale REO

Equity Sales Vs. Distressed Sales

SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted


0.7%

Supply

“At some point a supply problem becomes a

demand problem” – Joel Singer

Sept 2016: 3.5 Months; Sept 2017: 3.2 Months

Constrained Supply Defines the Market

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined

as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes


-11.2%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Year-over-Year % Chg

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Jan

-05

Se

p-0

5

Ma

y-0

6

Jan

-07

Se

p-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Jan

-09

Se

p-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Jan

-11

Se

p-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

Jan

-13

Se

p-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Jan

-15

Se

p-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

Jan

-17

Se

p-1

7

Inventory Index Highest in Millions

2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.6

3.6 3.6

4.9

9.7

2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.7 3.3

4.7 4.5

6.4

11.5

3.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Aug-17 Aug-16

Turnover Rate Very Low: US & CA

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

Housing Turnover Rate

(Single-Family Homes only)

4.6%

5.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

CA US Linear (CA)

CA turnover rate trend

Long-Time Homeowners are not

moving as in the past because:

• Capital gains hit

• Low property taxes

• Low rate on current mortgage

• Demographic shift

• Where can I afford to go?

Affordability

Housing Affordability: 28% Los Angeles

5754 53 52 52 51

48 47 47 47 47 46 45 44 44 43 43 43 4240 39 39 38 36 35 33 31

29 28 27 27 26 26 25 2521 21 19 17 17 17 16 14

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2017-Q2: % able to purchase median-priced home

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers


California, 1984-2017

Housing Affordability Peaked Q1 2012

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers


29%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

% O

F H

OU

SEH

OLD

S T

HA

T C

AN

BU

Y A

MED

IAN

-PR

ICED

HO

ME

Annual Quarterly

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Owner-Occupied (left) Renter-Occupied (right)

California’s Single-Family Housing Stock

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS)

Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

6,919,164

1,940,607

6,527,730

2,674,808

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

SF Owners SF Renters

2000 2005 2010 2015

More Single Family Units Now Rentals

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS)

Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Potentially between 400,000 and 700,000 SF Rentals that Used to be Owner-Occupied

Most Underbuilt Counties in California

381,300

174,833 162,740127,542 141,162

95,245 98,149 105,58666,054

44,772

88,134

35,426 44,92318,141

40,43414,901 18,108 31,255

6,349 10,8900

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

New Jobs vs. New Permits (2010-2015)

Jobs

Permits

SOURCE: California Employment Development Department, Construction Industry Research Board

Regional Housing Markets

$856,20010.2% YTY

2.6% YTD

6.5% YTY

1.9 15.0 101.9%$489UII

Months Days

MTM Price

Per Sq Ft

Sales

To List Ratio

Median PriceSales

Bay Area

2017 Bay AreaYTD Sales

2017 Bay AreaMedian Prices YTY

$528,0006.7% YTY

3.4% YTD

4.8% YTY

3.0 20.0 98.9%$301UII

Months Days

MTM Price

Per Sq Ft

Sales

To List Ratio

Median PriceSales

Southern California

2017 Southern CalYTD Sales

2017 Southern CalMedian Prices YTY

Pasadena & LAHousing Market Trends

Pasadena

Pasadena, September 2017: 59 Units

-5.8% 2016 YTD, +0.4% 2017 YTD, -9.2% YTY

Sales of Single Family Homes


Pasadena, September 2017: $1,060,000

Up 11.6% MTM, Up 21.1% YTY

Median Price of Single Family Homes


Pasadena, September 2017: 115 Units

+6.1% 2016 YTD, -23.4% 2017 YTD, -28.6% YTY

For Sale Properties

Note: “For Sale Properties” represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear

as “Active” any point in time during the month.


Altadena

Altadena, September 2017: 23 Units

-3.4% 2016 YTD, -14.5% 2017 YTD, -34.3% YTY



Altadena, September 2017: $875,000

Down 0.3% MTM, Up 19.0% YTY



Altadena, September 2017: 43 Units

-7.3% 2016 YTD, -18.1% 2017 YTD, +16.2% YTY

For Sale Properties




La Canada Flintridge

La Canada Flintridge, September 2017: 17 Units

-1.7% 2016 YTD, -8.5% 2017 YTD, +6.3% YTY



La Canada Flintridge, September 2017: $1,587,500

Down 10.6% MTM, Down 4.5% YTY



La Canada Flintridge, September 2017: 40 Units

-5.6% 2016 YTD, -19.3% 2017 YTD, -25.0% YTY

For Sale Properties




Q: “How‘s the Market?A: It’s Complicated

2017 Annual HousingMarket Survey

• Started in 1981 – 36 years ago •On-line survey In the field July and August 2017• The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 25,804 REALTORS® throughout California. The sample represented the geographical distribution of C.A.R. membership across the state.

•Asks about closed transactions in Q2 2017•Questionnaire with both multiple choice and open-ended questions. There were 1,303 valid survey responses, equivalent to a response rate of 5.0 percent. The margin of error for this survey was +/- 2.6 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Methodology

Who is Buying in California?

31%Age 20 – 37

40%Age 38 – 52

24%Age 53 – 71

4%72 and older

SERIES: 2017 Housing Market Survey


Median Age: 45

Who is Selling in California?

11%Age 20 – 37

27%Age 38 – 52

48%Age 53 – 71

14%72 and older



Median Age: 57

32% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% % of Sales Above Asking Price

Long Run Average = 20%

Tight Supply Pushed up Home Prices1/3 Sold Above Asking



52%

60%

4.0 4.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

% with Multiple Offers

# of Multiple offers (Average)

Market Competitiveness Up in 20176 out of 10 had Multiple Offers



Competitiveness by Price Range: LA/OC/SD



$0 -$300k$301k -

$500k

$501k -

$750k

$751k -

$1000k

$1001 and

upAll Prices

% with Multiple

Offer58.3% 67.2% 71.6% 73.5% 48.2% 62.7%

% of Sales

Above

Asking Price

46.2% 32.3% 33.3% 40.0% 22.6% 33.4%

Days on Market 8 10 13.5 8.5 25 14

77%

59%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

SF Bay Area So CA Rest of CA

% of Multiple Offer

… By Region



13

15

14

10

0 10 20

California

Other Counties

in CA

So CA

SF Bay Area

Days on Market

59.8%

28.5%

23.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

SF Bay Area So CA Rest of CA

% of Sales Above

Asking Price

Most Competitive for First-Time Buyers …



First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers

% with Multiple Offer 68.8% 55.5% 60.4%

% of Sales Above

Asking Price41% 28.8% 32.9%

Days on Market 10 14 13

40%

30% 30%32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Bay Area So CA Rest of CA California

% of First-Time Buyers

…Partly Because Many of Them Live in the Supply Constraint Bay Area

17%

24%

59%

54%

24%

22%

Repeat Buyers

First-Time Buyers

0% 50% 100%

Where are the buyers?

Bay Area So CA Rest of CA



Share of 1sTime Buyers Up but Below LR AverageNational Share is 50%

31.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 37.4%



International Buyers 3% of Transactions

8%

6%

5%6% 6%

8%

6%

4%

3% 3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?



The share of international buyers dropped to the lowest level in 9 years

International Buyers: Metro Areas Preferred

3.0%

3.6%

1.1%

3.1%

4.4%

2.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

% of International Buyers

20%

71%

9%

Where are the properties?

Bay Area So CA Rest of CA



Cash Outflow Restrictions Had a Negative Effect on the Share of Chinese Buyers

2016

• China (53%)

• Mexico (10%)

• India (10%)

2017

• China (31%)

• Mexico (6%)

• India (9%)



Q. What country did the (international) buyer come from?

Share of Cash Buyers Steady

22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%% of All Cash Sales

• One-fifth of buyers paid with all cash

• The share of all cash buyers is virtually unchanged in the last 4 years



Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.

FHA Loans Lowest since 2007

14.8%

5.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

FHA VA



Investor Buyers Inched Up in 2017; More Flippers in the Market

13.8%

4.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

Vacation/Second Home

Investment/Rental Property

% to Total Sales



Flip Rent

2014: 30%2015: 26%

2016: 20%

2017: 24%

2014: 70%2015: 74%

2016: 80%

2017: 76%

Vs.

Net Cash Gain to Sellers Highest since 2006

$200,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?



Sellers Are Not Moving as Often as Before

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Years Owned Home Before Selling

Long-Time Homeowners are not

moving as in the past because:

• Capital gains hit

• Low property taxes

• Low rate on current mortgage

• Where can I afford to go?

• Remodel and stay



Sellers Who Planned to Buy Another Home Reached the Highest Level since 2006

54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%



76%

63%

60%

28%

0% 50% 100%

Millennials

Gen X's

Baby Boomers

Silent

Generations

Sellers Moving out of California: Highest since 2007

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Within the same county 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44% 44% 40% 38%

In another county in

California24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21% 20% 21% 20%

In another state 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22% 22% 25% 28%

Out of US 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Don't Know/Not sure 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13% 13% 14%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Location of Seller’s New Home



How Client Found Their Agent

Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Represented Them in Previous Home…

Client was Friend/Relative/Neighbor

Referral from a client

Recommendations of Friends

Refferal from Business Associates

Other

Web page/Internet

Open House

Door-to-Door Farming

Relocation Referral

Walk in /Floor Call

Direct Mail Marketing

Yard Signs

Listing Agent for Home Purchased

Social Media

Telephone Marketing

Print Ads/Newspaper & Magazine

All Buyers



2017 Forecast

How’s the market? A tad hot.

How would you describe the real estate market in your area today?

37%

20%

43%

Too hot Too cold Just right


SOURCE: C.A.R.

Prices Up, Sales Flat, Rates Up, Affordability

What do you think will happen for the CA market in 2018?

64%

24%19%

64%

8%7%

30%39%

3%

72%

29%

45%42%

33%

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Home prices Home Sales Inventory Mortgage interest

rates

Affordability

Up Down Same/Flat


SOURCE: C.A.R.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018f

SFH Resales (000s) 439.8 414.9 382.7 409.4 416.7 421.9 426.2

% Change 4.1% -5.9% -7.8% 7.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0%

Median Price

($000s)$319.3 $407.2 $446.9 $476.3 $502.3 $538.5 $561.0

% Change 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 6.6% 5.4% 7.2% 4.2%

Housing

Affordability Index51% 36% 30% 31% 31% 29% 26%

30-Yr FRM 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.3%

California Housing Market Outlook

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook


421.9426.2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017p

Un

its

(Th

ou

san

d)

Sales of Existing Detached Homes

Sales and Price up in 2017 and in 2018



$539 $561

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017p

Pric

e (

Tho

usa

nd

)

Median Price

CA: Dollar Volume Up 8.6% in 2017, Up 5.2% in 2018

$301

$244

$164

$133 $131 $127 $121 $140

$169 $171

$195 $209

$227 $239

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018f

$ Volume of Sales Percent Change

$ in Billion % Change



2017 Challenges & Opportunities &Slow Moving Disasters

•CA Housing Affordability Crisis

•CA Pension Funds

•Boomers: Not prepared for Retirement

•Millennials: Student Loan Debt

•Skewing of the Income Distribution

• Institutional Investor ownership of SFH

• Tax Reform (Not slow anymore)

SMD’s: Slow Moving Disasters

Challenges: Affordability and Supply

What will be the biggest challenge for the housing market in 2018?

50%

36%

6% 6%2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Lack of

inventory

Lack of

affordability

Increase in

mortgage rates

New brokerage

models (Open

Door, Instant

Offer, etc)

Recession


SOURCE: C.A.R.

•Up your game – Do YOU.

•What is your WHY? Selling houses or changing lives?

•Revisit: What business are YOU in? Find your niche

•Reconnect: Who are YOUR clients?

•Educate first time-home buyers – Focus on Financial Literacy Become well versed on down payment assistance programs, debt management and improving credit

•Reach out to Boomers

• Think globally – We may be affordable for some

2018 Opportunities

One more thing…

Do you have a pet / Do you consider your pet a part of your family

All Creatures Great and Small

Yes I have a

pet, 63%

No I

don’t,

37%

Yes, my pet is

my family,

92%

No, its just a (special)

animal, 8%


SOURCE: C.A.R.

4 out of 10 – Pet Drives Moving Decisions

42%

28%

16%13%

No, but I double

down on the treats.

We have a equal,

deliberative process.

They complain, but I

try to ignore it.

My pet makes the

decision for me.


SOURCE: C.A.R.

If you were to move, would your pets' needs be paramount in your purchase decision.

What about a different kind of animal... Do you live with a Millennial?

Speaking of independence…

Yes, they just make lots of

noise if I don't. 67%

No, they like to

pretend to be …Yes, sigh, I live

with a Millennial,

14%

Nope, I'm FREE!!!!, 86%


SOURCE: C.A.R.

Do you pay for their cell phone plan?

2017 SPF Book Recommendations

2018 SPF Book Recommendations

The Economy of LoveGive Freely

Receive Graciously

Thank You

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