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Transcript of Partnering for Impact_Brussels Haniotis
Food Security Foresight:some reflections
Partnership for ImpactIFPRI-European research Collaboration
Brussels, 25 November 2013
Tassos HaniotisDirector
Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluationsDG Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission
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From the shifting balance of constant needs…
Food
Feed
Fibre Fuel
Population, incomeand demand driversPopulation, incomeand demand drivers
Policy challengesin globalised
markets
Policy challengesin globalised
markets
Supply constraints and productivity
Supply constraints and productivity
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Domestic and trade policies (from G-2 and 3 pillars to G-20 and
export bans)
Weather variability increased due to climate change
… to a framework for analysing food security challenges
Food supply and demand interaction
Financialisation of
commodities
Energy links (high energy prices,
biofuels)
Domestic and trade policies (from G-2 and 3 pillars to G-20 and
export bans)
Weather variability increased due to climate change
Macro linkages (GDP, interest
rates, exchange rates)
Macro linkages (GDP, interest
rates, exchange rates)
Energy links (high energy prices,
biofuels)
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1948
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450(World Bank MUV-deflated indices, 2005 = 100)
Agriculture Polynomial (Agriculture) Fertilizers Energy
Metals & minerals
Source: World Bank. Note: 2013 figures are forecasts as of September 2013.
Long term commodity price trends
Cumulative price change
Period 2000-12 2006-12
Sector (real)
Agriculture + 82 % + 61 %
Fertilisers + 286 % + 115 %
Energy + 261 % + 55 %
Metals & minerals + 217 % + 44 %
Crops (nominal)
Wheat + 275 % + 163 %
Maize + 337 % + 245 %
Rice + 278 % + 185 %
Soybeans + 279 % + 220 %
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Long term energy price trends1982M
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1982M
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Crude oil, Brent ($/bbl) Crude oil, WTI ($/bbl Coal, Australian ($/mt)
Source: World Bank.
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Long term natural gas price trends1982M
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1982M
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1983M
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20(World Bank nominal prices, $/mmbtu)
Natural gas, US Natural gas, Europe Liquefied natural gas, Japan
Source: World Bank.
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World annual growth in consumption/population (%)
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* Based on estimations for 2011-2012. Size of bubbles represents total average consumption over a period. Sources: FAO, USDA
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What is new in the Foresight debate?
What sort of "insecurities" drive the current policy debate?
• Recent commodity price developments: volatility, co-movement and level• Price volatility and price co-movement are declining• However, the agricultural price level is expected to stay higher in the future
Three challenges linked to research and modelling needs
• Global: energy-link shifts from biofuels to gas, impacts input use and competiveness• Developing world: dilemma from opposite impact of high prices on rural vs urban poor• Developed world: how to address ″jointness″ between private and public goods?
Role of research in getting the "problem definition" right
• Important to anticipate future problems, instead of assuming continuation of past ones • Need to target research to broader, often inter-disciplinary, policy-relevant issues • Need to communicate in simple, targeted and result-oriented ways with policy makers
Thank you
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