Parallel Session B: Coupled Models B1: Atmosphere-land ...conference. Keywords: diurnal cycle, south...
Transcript of Parallel Session B: Coupled Models B1: Atmosphere-land ...conference. Keywords: diurnal cycle, south...
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModels
B1:Atmosphere-land
POSTERPRESENTATIONS
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-01
ContributionofUrbanHeatIslandonLandscapeCompositionandItsImpacttotheLandSurfaceTemperature(CaseStudyonPalembangCity-Indonesia)
AdelinaGaol,IndonesianAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia
AdelinaGaol,YopiSerhalawan,IndonesianAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;PaulusWinarso,SchoolofMeteorologyClimatologyandGe,Indonesia
PalembangasthecapitalofSouthSumatraProvince,andalsofamousasthehostoftheAsianGames2018hashighdevelopmentactivitiesalongwiththeincreasingpopulation.Developmentcarriedoutthroughthediversionoflandfunctionsintobuilt-uplandcausesanincreaseinsurfacetemperaturewhich triggers theurbanheat islandphenomenon. This study aims todiscuss thephenomenonofUrbanHeatIslandinPalembangCityanditsrelationtolandcompositionandpopulationdensityonsurfacetemperaturesobtainedfromtheprocessingofmulti-temporalLandsatImagesin1989,2001,2018, with the specification of cloud-free (clear sky) using the Land Surface Temperature (LST)algorithm and guided classification (supervised). The results of surface temperature, populationdensity,andlandcompositionwerethencarriedoutsimpleregressiontests.ThedistributionoftheUHIphenomenonisobtainedbyclassifyingLSTtoobtaintheUHIthreshold.Theresultsshowedalinkbetweenchangesinsurfacetemperature,populationdensityandlandcomposition.Thevalueofthedeterminant coefficient (R2) between the relationship of changes in surface temperaturewhich isdirectlyproportionaltotheincreasingpopulation,theincreaseintheareaofeachopenlandandbuilt-up land reached 62.6%, 86.3%, and 55.0%. Conversely, there is a negative link between surfacetemperatureanddensevegetationwithadeterminantcoefficientreach90.4%.TheaffectedareaofUHIislocatedinthecenterofPalembang,reaching33.5km2ofthetotalareaofPalembangCityin2018.ItisnecessarytohaveanidealcitymitigationandarrangementbycalculatingthegreenareawiththeincreasingpopulationinPalembangCity.
Keywords:UrbanHeatIsland,LST,Landsat
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-02
DiurnalcycleofprecipitationandatmospherichumidityfluxinSouthAmerica:roleofland-atmosphereinteractions
JulianGiles,CIMA-UBA-CONICET-UMIIFAECI,Argentina
JulianGiles,RominaRuscica,ClaudioMenendez,CIMA-UBA-CONICET-UMIIFAECI,Argentina
Modelaccuracyofthetimingofprecipitationin itsdiurnalcycleisasimportantasthatofthedailymeantocorrectlyrepresentclimate,butneverthelessitisoftenoverlooked.Weanalyzedthediurnalcyclesofprecipitation(DCP)andconvergenceofatmospherichumidityoverSouthAmericainthewetseason(OctoberthroughMarch),usingtworegionalclimatemodels(RCA4andLMDZ).Thesimulationswere compared with two satellite-derived products and one reanalysis. Consistent with previousresults, these RCMs have a wrong representation of the DCP because precipitation is beingunrealistically triggered too easily. Both models showed qualitatively similar errors in the DCPcomparedtoreferencedata.However,thehumidityfluxconvergence-anecessaryconditionforacorrectrainfallsimulation-anditsdiurnalcycleatthecontinentalscaleweresatisfactorilycapturedcomparedtothereanalysis.Wespeculatethattheboundarylayerevolutionanditsthermodynamicpropertiescouldbesensitivetothecouplingbetweenthesoilandtheatmosphere.Inordertoexploreifthediurnalcyclesofconvectionanddifferentpropertiesoftheboundarylayeraresensitivetotheland-atmosphere coupling, an additional run was performed with each RCM: an Uncoupledexperiment that shares the sameset-upas thecontrol (coupled)one,except that its soil-moistureevolutionateachdayisreplacedwiththeclimatologyofthecontrolforthatday,uncouplingthelandsurface from the atmosphere. The main results of this experiment will be presented during theconference.
Keywords:diurnalcycle,southamerica,precipitation,atmospherichumidityfluxconvergence,land-atmospherecoupling,soilmoisture
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-03
LandsurfacecontributionstotheamplificationofAustralianheatwavesvialocalland-atmospherecoupling
AnnetteHirsch,CLEX/UNSW,Australia(presentedbyJ.Evans)
AnnetteHirsch,JasonEvans,CLEX/UNSW,Australia;GiovanniDiVirgillio,UNSW,-;SarahPerkins-Kirkpatrick,UNSW,-;DanielArgüeso,U.BalearicIslands,-;AndrewPitman,CLEX/UNSW,-;ClaireCarouge,CLEX/UNSW,-;JatinKala,MurdochUni,-;JuliaAndrys,MurdochUni,-;PaolaPetrelli,
CLEX/UTAS,-;BurkhardtRockel,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht
Climatechangeis likelytoincreasethefrequency, intensityanddurationofheatwaves,particularlyoverAustralia.Heatwavesposeasignificant risk toecosystemandhumanhealthasevident in theimpactsofseveralwelldocumentedcasestudies, includingthe2003Europeanheatwave,the2010Russianheatwaveandthe2012/2013summerinAustralia.Heatwavesaregenerallyassociatedwiththeclearskies,increasedsubsidence,warmairadvectionandprolongedheatarisingfrompersistentquasi-stationaryhigh-pressuresystems.However,landsurfaceconditionshavebeenshowntohavean influence on amplifying the surface temperatures experienced during a heatwave.Mostanalyses todate focuson the roleanomalous soilmoistureconditionsprecedingexceptionalevents(e.g.the2003Europeanheatwave).However,ingeneralitisnotknownhowmuchtherateofland surface drying, through land-atmosphere interactions, both before and during a heatwavecontributestotheintensityoftheseextremeevents.Therefore,inthisstudyweexaminehowtherateoflandsurfacedryingprecedingaheatwaveeventcontributestoheatwaveintensity.Herewefocuson Australian heatwaves using both observational data and model output from the CORDEXAustralAsiaproject.Wefindthatrateoflandsurfacedryingpriortoaheatwaveeventinfluencesthemagnitudeoftemperatureanomaliesexperiencedbutonlyoverregionswherethereisstrongcouplingbetweenthe landandtheatmosphere.Wealsofindthatheatwavesaretriggeredmorefrequentlyoverregionswherethereisstrongland-atmospherecoupling.Timepermitting,wewillalsopresentnewresultsdistinguishingbetweendynamicalandnon-locallandsurfacecontributions.
Keywords:land-atmosphereinteractions,heatwaves
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-04
ResponseofLUCAS-modelstoforestationandafforestationinEuropeunderdry,wetandhotclimateconditions
PeterHoffmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany
PeterHoffmann,DianaRechid,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany;EdouardDavin,EidgenössischeTechnischeHochschuleETHZurich,
Zurich,Switzerland;NathaliedeNoblet-Ducoudré,LaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetdel'Environment,IPSL,France;EleniKatragkou,DepartmentofMeteorologyandClimatology,Schoolof
Geology,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;MarcusBreil,InstituteofMeteorologyandClimateResearch,KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology(KIT),Germany;RitaCardoso,InstitutoDomLuiz(IDL),FaculdadedeCiências,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;ErikaCoppola,InternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP),EarthSystemPhysicsSection,Italy;LisaJach,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany;SwantjePreuschmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;KaiRadtke,ChairofEnvironmentalmeteorology,BrandenburgUniversityofTechnology,Germany;MarioRaffa,REgionalModelsandgeo-HydrologicalImpacts,CentroEuro-MediterraneosuiCambiamentiClimatici,Italy;Vanessa
Reinhart,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;PedroSoares,InstitutoDomLuiz(IDL),FaculdadedeCiências,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;IoannisSofiadis,DepartmentofMeteorologyandClimatology,SchoolofGeology,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;SusannaStrada,InternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP),EarthSystemPhysicsSection,Italy;GustavStrandberg,RossbyCentre,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden;MerjaTölle,DepartmentofGeography,Climatology,Climate
DynamicsandClimateChange,Justus-LiebigUniversityGiessen,Germany;KirstenWarrach-Sagi,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany;VolkerWulfmeyer,
InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany
WithintheCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudyLUCAS-"LandUseandClimateAcrossScales",thebio-physicalimpactsofland-useandlandcoverchanges(LULCCs)ontheregionalclimateinEuropearecurrentlyextensivelyinvestigated.Anensembleofdifferentregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)coupledtodiverselandsurfacemodels (LSMs)hasbeensetuptoperformidealizedexperimentswithextremeLULCCscenariosfortheEUR-44domaindrivenbyERA-Interim.Inthefirstscenario,Europeiscoveredwithforestwheretreescanrealisticallygrow(FOREST),whileinthesecondscenarioallforestsareturnedintograssland(GRASS).Anevaluationrun(EVAL)withtheindividualmodellandsurfacedistributionswasalsoconductedforeachparticipatingRCM-LSM.TheresponsesoftheRCM-LSMensembletothetwoextremeLULCCscenariosshowrobustseasonalsignalsforsomeregionsandsomevariablesbutalsodisagreementsbetweenthedifferentRCM-LSM.
In this study, the influence of atmospheric conditions on the responses to the extreme LULCC isinvestigatedtounderstandtheinter-modeldifferencesandtoassestherobustnessoftheresponses.ThisisdonebyanalyzingdifferencesbetweentheFORESTandGRASSsimulationsunderdry,wet,andhotclimateconditions.Dryandwetclimaticconditionsaredetectedusingtwodifferentmethods.Forthe firstmethod, the fivewettest and five driest years are determined in the EVAL runs for each
PRUDENCEregionandseason.Thesecondmethodisbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationindex(SPI),computedfromthemonthlyprecipitationintheEVALruns.Monthswithalow(high)SPIoverthe majority of the corresponding region are defined as dry (wet) conditions. Regional scale hotconditions are detected using the hot season definition. The differences in near-surface variablesbetweentheFORESTandGRASSsimulationsarethenaveragedforthedifferentclimaticconditionsandcomparedtotheaverageresponsecomputedforthewholeperiod.
Keywords:LUCAS,Land-useandlandcoverchange,extremeclimateconditions
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-05
IndianSummerMonsooninacoupledland-atmosphereregionaldownscalingexperiment
DhirendraKumar,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India
DhirendraKumar,A.P.Dimri,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India
One of the visions of the CORDEX project is to evaluate and improve different regional climatedownscaling techniques through testing differentmodels over a common area. In this regard, thecapabilityofregionalclimatemodelRegCM4forcedwithtwodifferentGCMsandthreedifferentland-surface parameterization schemes (i.e. BATS, CLM4.5, and Subgrid-BATS) in simulating the meanfeaturesofIndianSummerMonsoonistestedforthepresentclimate(1975-2005).TheselectionoftheGCMs(MIROC5andCCSM4)weremadeonthebasisoftheirabilityinrepresentingtheseasonalmean,inter-annualandtheintra-seasonalvariabilityofmonsoonovertheIndianregionbasedontheavailableliterature.Intotal,6differentlongtermsimulationswerecarriedoutandassessedintermsof seasonal mean near surface air temperature, precipitation and low level wind fields for June-September season over CORDEX-South Asia domain. Among all the experiments, MIROC-RegCM-CLM4.5experimentsoutperformothersinsimulatingtheJJASseasonalmeanprecipitationandwindclimatologywith comparatively lessdrybiasover the Indian region. Themodel performancewereassessed in terms of Taylor's metric (for seasonal mean precipitation, temperature, zonal wind,meridionalwindandtotalcloudfraction),meanannualcycle,IndexofAgreement,NormalizedRootMeanSquaredDeviation,andProbabilitydistributionfunctionovertheIndianlandmassregion.ThemodelexperimentswerefoundtosimulatethemoderateprecipitationeventsmoreaccuratelythanhigherintensityprecipitationeventswhencomparedwithIMDobservations.Theinherentbiasesinthemodelsimulationsareattributedtotheweakermeridionalwindsimulation intheexperimentsalongwithrestrainedverticalmotionduringmonsoonespeciallyincaseofthoseforcedwithCCSM4GCM. This emphasizes the importance of appropriate GCM forcing as well as land surfaceparameterization scheme for the simulation of a coupled land-ocean-atmosphere system such asIndianSummerMonsoon.
Keywords:RegCM4,CLM4.5,CORDEX-SouthAsia,Monsoon,Downscaling
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-06
RegionalclimateimpactassessmentofvegetationchangeinLoessPlateau:CombiningWRF-Noahmodelandlongtimeseriessatelliteobservations
ShunlinLiang,WuhanUniversity,China
SiliangLiu,WuhanUniversity,China;ShunlinLiang,[email protected],UnitedStates
LoessPlateau(LP),apilotregionwitharidandsemi-aridclimateinChina,hasundergonesignificantvegetationchangesincethelaunchofthe‘GainforGreen’Program(GGP)in1999.AstheaimofGGPtoincreaseforestcoverandcontrolsoilerosion,partsofagriculturelandhaveconvertedtoforestsand grassland. The net warming or cooling effect of afforestation in this region is still uncertain,dependingonthecompetingcontributionsofalbedoandevapotranspirationaswellasbackgroundclimate. Further, it is reported that vegetation change has altered the rainfall distribution andfrequencyinLP.
Withtheavailabilityofdecadesofsatelliteobservations,thetransitionoflandcovertypesandchangeofvegetationstatuscanberepresentedrealistically.Throughincorporatingthisinformationintothestaticfieldofcoupledatmosphere-landregionalclimatemodel,itisexpectedtoquantifytheclimateeffectsduetovegetationchange.
Theobjectiveofthisstudyistoinvestigatehowsurfaceairtemperatureandprecipitationresponsetovegetation change due to government policy in LP, through combining multiple long time seriessatelliteproductsfrom1982to2016andWRF-Noahmodel.TohighlighttheeffectofGGPandavoidsensorscalibrationissue,thewholetemporalrangeisdividedintotwoperiods:1982-1999and2000-2016.Contrastingsensitivityexperimentsareconductedusingrealvegetationobservationsandstaticvegetationbackgroundtoisolatetheeffectsofvegetationchange.
Keywords:VegetationChange,ClimateEffects
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-07
ThestudyofthesurfaceroughnesslengthanditsapplicationintheNoahMPonthenorthernoftheTibetanPlateau
MaoshanLi,ChengduUniversityofinformationtechnology,-
MaoshanLi,XiaoranLiu,ChengduUniversityofinformationtechnology,China
ThisstudyfocusesonthetemporalandspacevariationoftheroughnesslengthonthenorthernoftheTibetanPlateau.Thefiguresshowthatthereisthedistributionofthesurfaceaerodynamicroughnessof40000km2aroundBJsite(BJsiteisinthecenter,timeistakenonthe15thofeachmonth).ItcanbeseenfromthefigurethatthesurfaceroughnessoftheareashowsadecreasingtrendfromJanuarytoFebruary,whichmaybeduetosnowfallandotherreasons,resultinginasmallsurfaceroughnessandacontinualdecreaseinsurfaceroughness.FromFebruary15toMarch15,thez0mhasrecoveredsomewhat inamonthas figureC isbasicallyconsistentwithfigureA, it indicatesthatthez0mhasreachedto its lowest, itcould indicatebysnowfallmustbegintomelt,andthecontributionofthecomplexunderlyingsurfaceenvironmenttoz0misenhanced.OnMarch,April,Mayz0mcontinuestoincrease,andthevegetable lowgrowth in these threemonths, themonthlychartchangesarenotlarge. These figures show the coverage of the surface is indicating the complexity of the surface,whetherthesurfaceorvegetationwillhaveanimportantimpactonthez0m.FromMarchuntilAugust,z0m has been on a rising trend. Corresponding to the obvious changes of relative humidity,temperature and pressure brought by the summer monsoon mentioned above, the height andcoverageofsurfacevegetationareallincreasing.Therefore,z0misalsoconstantlyincreasing,reachingitspeakinAugust.ItisnoteworthythatthechangefromMaytoJuneisverysignificant.ThismaybeduetothestartofthecorrespondingplateausummermonsooninJune,whichwillleadtotheincreaseofprecipitation.Aftertheprecipitationincreases,thegrowthofvegetationwillaccelerateandthez0mwill rapidly increase. June, July, August three months, due to continuous precipitation and otherreasons, leading to plant growth is very strong, but grow to the maximum no longer grow,corresponding to the map is the maximum surface roughness has not changed, but due to theabundantwater, thez0mgraduallyexpanded in thepast threemonthsandreachedthemaximumareainAugust.FromSeptembertoDecember,withthedeclineofplateaumonsoon,somechangeshave taken place in temperature and relative humidity, compared with the prevailing summermonsoon,whicharenolongersuitableforthegrowthofvegetation.Fromthismonth,thevegetationcontribution to z0m is gradually weakened, and the height and coverage area of z0m graduallydecrease.Therefore,z0malsodecreasescontinuouslyandtherangebeginstodecrease.InDecember,thez0mareanearBJsitesuddendecreasemaybeduetosnowfall.
Itcanalsobeseenfromtheabovesimulationthatthez0mchangesnotonlyimpresswiththetimescalebutalsowiththespatialscale.Fromthesefiguresofthecharacteristicstrend,wecanseethattheunderlyingsurfacehasdifferentcomplexity,thetrendofthez0misdifferent.Afterinvertingthesatelliteremotesensingdata,wealsogetthevariationofz0mof40000km2aroundtheBJstationatnorthernTibetanPlateauin2008,whichshowsthedatadecreasefromJan.toFeb.ItreachesitspeakinAug.andthendecreaseagain.Thisannualvariationistosomeextentrelatedtotheplateausummermonsoonandsnowfall.Besides,thevegetationheightindryseasonsislow,sothez0misdeterminedmainlybythereliefoflandsurfaceindryseason.Ontheotherhand,improvedroughnesslengthwas
applicated in the NoahMP simulation process and the simulated results were evaluated usingobservation.
Keywords:theroughnesslength,numericalsimulation,TibetanPlateau
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-08
ProbabledeviationsofairtemperatureinthesurfacelayerofaridregionsofArmeniainthecontextofglobalclimatechange
PargevMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.ChairoftheTheoryofProbabilityandMathematicalStatistics.,Armenia
PargevMargaryan,VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.,Armenia
Today the effects of climate change are felt around the world and Armenia is not an exception.Armenia ischaracterizedbyvulnerablemountainousecosystems,aridclimate,anactiveprocessofdesertificationandnaturaldisastersareoftenobserved,whichmakesthecountrymorevulnerabletheimpacts of climate change. The air temperature has a main role in the forming of atmospherecirculation,evaporationandmoistureregimeofterritory.Thatiswhytheairtemperaturestudyisanimportant task and caught our attention. So, clarifying and estimation of regularities of temporaldistributionofairtemperatureimportance,especiallyformoreaccuratedefinitionofthermalbalance,forproductiveusingofthermalresources.
Forsolvingofsuggestedproblemsasatheoreticalbasehavebeenusedappropriateresearches,asarawmaterial-actualdataoflong-termobservationsofairtemperaturesthemeteorologicalstationoftheterritoryofrepublicforlast100years,whicharekeptinfondArmstatehydromet.Inworkhavebeen applied methods: mathematic-statistical, geographical, extrapolation, analysis, correlation,complex.
AveragedataofairtemperatureobservationsinArmeniaatmeteorologicalstationsfortheperiodof1935-2017hasbeenanalyzed.
Instudyareathevaluesofaverageannualairtemperaturearewithin14.3ºC(Meghri)and-2.6ºC(Aragats).DuringtheyearthewarmestmonthsareJuly-August,withaveragemonthlytemperature9.0…27.0ºC,andthecoldestmonthareJanuarywithaveragemonthlytemperature-12.7…1.5ºC.
InArmeniaairtemperaturechangeshavebeenestimatedfordifferentperiods,andresultshavebeenusedinfirstandsecondnationalmessagesofClimateChangeofRA.Theresultsshow,thatduringlastten-years period in Armenia observes increasing of air temperature. During 1935-96 period forcomparisontobasicperiod (1961-1990)averageannual temperature increasedon0.4ºC, in1935-2007period–0.85 ºC, in1935-2012period -on1.03 ºC. Itmeans that the tempsof temperatureincreasing increased.Since1994thedeviationsofaverageannual temperature incomparisonwithaveragetemperaturein1961-1990wereonlypositive.
BytheforecastsofECHAMS,GFDL,GISSER,HadCM3modelsinArmeniapredictsannualincreaseofairtemperaturefor1.1-1.5ºCin2011-2040,2.0-3.0ºCin2041-2070,and3.5-5.5ºC–in2071-2100.So,intheresultsofstudieswehavethefollowingconclusionsandsuggestions:
Inperennialobservationsnotesatendencyofincreaseofannualaveragevaluesofairtemperature;
- have beenmademany researches, but there are not studies systemized of reasons of airtemperaturechangeyet,andexistedare just forsomesidesof it.So, isbetter tocontinuestudiesandtodevelopfutureforecasts,usingnewmodels;
- estimationofproblemsofairtemperaturedynamicschangewillgetrightsolving,whenwillbe known the relations, which it have with other components of nature area complex inconditionsofdirectinfluenceofhuman.
Isnecessary:
- providingofmeteorologicalstationswithmodernequipment(especiallyautomatic);
- evaluationofthevulnerabilityofecosystemsasaresultofchangesinairtemperature;
- realizationlegal-organization,institutional,technicalarrangementsforadaptationofeconomytonewnaturalconditionsandsoftenofclimatechangeconsequences;
- strengthening of scientific studies of climatic problems and implementation of newtechnologies;
- workingoutofrealclimaticscenarios;
- workingoutoftheprogramsforsofteningthenegativeeffectsofairtemperaturechange;
- financial satisfy support from government and other donor organizations madeimplementationsmustbevisibleforsociety,directedforrealizationofspecificprogramsandhavecontrolbysomeorgans;
- providingofmodernwaysofavailabilityandoutspreadofinformation;
- working out and implementation of qualification programs, organization of studyingprocesses,developmentofspecialists’qualification;
- realization and providing international scientific-educational cooperation, strengthening ofinter-agencycooperation.
Keywords:airtemperature,aridregions,probabledeviations,globalclimatechange,Armenia
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-09
DynamicschangeofannualnumberofatmosphericprecipitationofArabatphysicalgeographicalaridregioninglobalclimatechangecontext
VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.FacultyofGeographyandGeology.DepartmentofPhysicalGeographyandHydrometeorology.,Armenia
The atmospheric precipitation change is a reason of different dangers ecological situationsmanifestations.Needtostudythecause-and-effectrelationshipsofprecipitationchangebecamemorevitalsincethelate20thcentury,whenitbecameclearthatthesustainabledevelopmentofthesocietyduetoclimatecomponentsprotection
So,consideringtheabove,studiedandevaluatedthedynamicschangeofannualprecipitationofanimportantagriculturalregionoftherepublic,Araratvalley,clarifiedthedistributionpatterns,revealedthechallengesofsphere.
Forsolvetheseproblemsasatheoreticalandinformativebasisservedappropriatestudies,publishedworks, decisions of the Armenian government, reports, development programs, projects, workingplans.Asastartingmaterialusedactualdateoflong-termobservationofatmosphericprecipitation(1935-2015)ofmeteorologicalstationsofArmstatehydrometofMESofRAofstudyarea,aswellasclimatic reference-books. As a methodological basis used geographical, mathematics-statistical,extrapolation,matching,comparison,analysis,correlationmethods.
Thetasksofatmosphericprecipitationchangediscussedandstudiedbytheresultsofactualdataofseparatemeteorologicalstations.Asaresultofthestudyrevealed,thatintheregionobservesregularspatialdistributionofdynamicschangeofthenumberofprecipitationduringtheyear.Thus,attheterritoryofAraratvalleyisnoticedincreaseofamountofannualprecipitationuntil1300mheight,andon greater heights-tendency of decrease. But it does notmeans, that humidification and artificialirrigationissueofvalleyareresolved.Thereasonis,thatatlowzoneduetohighairtemperatureanditsincreasetendencyisgreattheevaporation,therefore,thelossofprecipitationalso.Ontheotherhand,ontheterritoryoftheRAtheriverrunoffisformedat1800mandmoreheightsmainly.Andinthiszoneobservesonlyadecreasetendencyofprecipitation.So,it isnecessarytomanageanduseright the water resources from atmospheric precipitation, especially in the context of the globalclimatechange.
According to regional climatic models (Armstatehydromet) in Armenia is expected an increase ofannualtemperatureon1.1-1.5ºCin2011-2040,2.0-3.0ºC-in2041-2070,3.5-5.5ºC–in2071-2099anddecreaseofannualprecipitationappropriatelyon5-10%,10-15%,15-25%.
Thus, in the resultof suchchangeofatmosphericprecipitationwillobservedaviolationofnaturalecosystem balance, particularly an aridity of climatic conditions, sail degradation, biodiversityviolation.So,itisnecessarytoevaluateprecipitationchangewithecosystemapproach,byseparatephysical-geographical regions or river basins, to work out appropriate programs of consequencesmitigationandadaptionevents,takingintoaccountlocalfeaturesofanyarea.
Intheresultofstudieswecametofollowingconclusionsandproposals:
• Theatmosphericprecipitationbelongstothatmeteorologicalelements,whichcharacterizedwithmorelocalfeaturesofspatiotemporaldistribution;
• Thenumberofprecipitationregularly increasesfromlowregionsofvalleytosouth-easternslopesofAragats.Maximumannualnumberofprecipitation(988mm),intheRepublicalso,observes at Aragats meteorological station, minimum number (166 mm) – at Taronikmeteorologicalpoint;
• Ontheresultofstudyhasnegativeeffectacircumstance,thatinstudyareameteorologicalstationsandpointsarelocateduntil1200mheightmainly,at1300-2000mheighttheirnumberis2;
• Until1300mheightisobservedatendencyofincreaseofannualnumberofprecipitation,andmorehigher–atendencyofdecrease;
• In the conditions of conservation of such cause of precipitation change, probably, will begrowthofaridityoftheregion,intensivesoildegradation.
Itisnecessary
• Providingofcontinuouscomprehensiveandsystematicscientificstudiesofdynamicschangeofprecipitation,investmentofnewprogramsandtechnologies;
• Providingofhomogeneity,continuityandreliabilityofobservationsofactualdataseries;
• Trainingprofessionals,organizingoftrainingcoursescontinuously;
• Improvingofinformationandnotificationsystems;
• Evaluationofvulnerabilityofecosystemsduetoprecipitationchange;
• Reserving ofwater of small streams and rivulets of upland areas during humid period forirrigationrelativelydryareasindryseasoninlowareas;
• Mitigation of legal-organizational, institutional, technical events for softening of effects ofatmosphericprecipitationchangeandadaptingofeconomytonewnaturalconditions.
Keywords:atmosphericprecipitation,globalclimatechange,Araratphysicalgeographical,aridregion
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-10
ForecastofPlantingCalendarforSorghum(Sorghumbicolor)fromDownscalingMethodinKivuMountain,DRCongo
RomainNtole,UniversiteEvangeliqueenAfrique,DemRepofCongo
RomainNtole,BajopeBaluku,UniversiteEvangeliqueenAfrique,DemRepofCongo;NapoleonKajunji,MakerereUniversity,DemRepofCongo
Assessing impact of climate change on Sorghum production and analysis of future adaptationmeasuresbearsenormousadvantagesingeneralandinSouthKivuinparticular,owingtothecountry’slow adaptive capacity. The analysis shows that climate changewill reduce Sorghumproduction inSouthKivuMountainthroughtimehorizons i.etill theyear2030s,2050sand2080s.Thisstudywasconductedtocharacterizeclimate,assessitsimpactonSorghumproductionandidentifymanagementoptionsfortheclimatefuturedatesinSouthkivuMountainDRCongo.Dailyclimatedata,normalizedlarge scaleHadley Centre coupledModel version 3model predictors and crop and soil datawereanalyzed.Pastandpresentclimatevariabilitycharacterizationwasassessedthroughseasonalrainfallamount,monthlyrainfallstatisticsanddryspelllengthusingRanalyticaltoolandINSTATclimateguide.Temperaturevariabilitywasexaminedintermsofpatternandtrend.Forfutureprojection,Climatechangescenariosforrainfall,minimumandmaximumtemperaturesweredevelopedfortheperiod2001-2099byusingtheHadleyCentrecoupledModelversion3underA2aandB2aSpecialReportonEmissionScenariosusingStatisticalDownscalingModelversion4.1software.DecisionSupportSystemforAgro-technologyTransfer, cropmodelwasused to simulate future changes in Sorghumand todetermine best adaptation measures in Kivu area under modified environment. Seasonal rainfallamountwasfoundtodecreasewithsignificancefor42yearsperiod(P<0.05)whilemonthlyrainfallstatistics showed a high variation (CV of 80.6 to 34.4% acrossmonths).Minimum andmaximumtemperatures showedan increasing trendat interannual scale (0.21ºCperdecadeand0.14ºCperdecaderespectively).Thefutureprojectionanalysisshowedadecreasingtrendofannualrainfallandincreasingtrendfortemperaturesduringtheperiodfrom2001-2099.Accordingly,theaverageannualminimumtemperaturewasfoundtorise in2020,2050and2080sforA2aandtodecreaseforB2aemissionscenarios.Whilemaximumtemperaturewaspredictedtoincreasein2020,2050sand2080sunderbothemissionscenarios.In2080s,theaverageannualmaximumtemperatureincrementwouldbehighforB2ascenarios.Thecropmodelsimulationindicatedapositiveimpactonthecultivarsacrossclimatechangescenariosrelativetobaselineduetoclimatechangeby2100s.Asadaptationoptionsunder changed climate conditions, And best agricultural practices have been found to be acombinationoflateplantingdate,highplantpopulationandhighfertilizerapplicationrate.Thecultivarhasbeen foundtobemoresensitiveonhigh fertilizerapplicationrate.Therefore,growingcultivarunderfutureclimateconditionwithimprovedmanagementoptionssuchashighfertilizerapplicationrate,improvedsoilwaterandplantinginthirddekadofJulycouldensurehighyieldsduringagoodrainyseason.Likewise,goodyieldcouldalsobeobservedduringapoorrainyseason.
Keywords:Downscaling,scenarios,CropModel,,Sorghum
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-11
LandsurfacetemperatureinhighresolutionsimulationswithRegCMoverSoutheasternBrazil
MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil
MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil;RosmeriP.daRocha,UniversidadedeSãoPaulo,Brazil;MuriloRuvLemes,Brasil,Brazil;MartaLlopart,UniversidadeEstadualPaulista,Brazil
Withtherefinementofthehorizontalresolutionoftheregionalclimatemodels,satelliteobservationshave become a source of information to validate the simulations. In this context, land surfacetemperature (LST) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used tovalidatetwoRegionalClimateModel(RegCM)version4.6.1simulationsforsoutheasternBrazil.LST-MODIS isregisteredonly inclear-skyconditions.Here,weusedtheLSTfrommergingtheproductsfromthesatellitesTERRAandAQUAwith1kmofhorizontal resolution for2010-year.RegCMwasdrivenbyERA-Interimreanalysisandwasintegratedwith5kmofhorizontalgridspacing,usingtheEmanuel cumulus convection scheme and with different land-surface schemes: the Biosphere–AtmosphereTransferScheme(BATS)andtheCommunityLandModel(CLM).ThesesimulationsweredenominatedRegBATSandRegCLM,respectively.Consideringthewholesimulationdomain,RegBATS(RegCLM)hasatendencytounderestimate(overestimate)theLSTregisteredbyMODIS.FocusingonthelargeurbancentersofsoutheastBrazil(SãoPaulo,RiodeJaneiro,BeloHorizonteandVitória),bothsimulationsreproducetheLSTannualcycleinagreementwithMODIS.ThegreatestsimilarityinLSTvalues between RegCM andMODIS occurs in the coastal regions (Rio de Janeiro and Vitória). Forexample,inRiodeJaneirotheLSTmeanannualbiasis0.9oC(-0.6oC)inRegCLM(RegBATS).InSãoPaulo,RegCLM(biasof0.6oC)isclosertotheMODIS,whileinBeloHorizontesmallerbiasisfoundinRegBATS(biasof-0.4oC).Thebiasesovertheseurbancentersarerelativelysmallsincetheyarelessthan±1oC.
Keywords:landsurfacetemperature,RegCM,MODIS
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-12
ProjectedtrendsofprecipitationregimeinUkraineduringtheperiodof2020-2050
InnaSemenova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine
TheprojectedspatiotemporaldistributionofprecipitationindifferentregionsofUkraineundertheclimatescenarioRCP8.5wasdefined.ThedataoftheregionalclimatemodellingprojectCORDEXEUR-44havebeenusedforconstructiontimeseriesofprojectedprecipitation.FortheSteppeandForest-Steppeareas,trendsofprojectedclimateextremeindicesforprecipitationwereassessed.
The analysis showed that the projected amount of summer precipitation will decrease over theterritory of Ukraine, but unevenly in different decades. In the period of 2020-2030 precipitationamount will not change in the northern, central and western regions, but in the Crimea and theCarpathians will decrease by 17% and 38% respectively. In the southern and eastern regionsprecipitationamountwillincreaseby17-25%.Duringtheperiodof2030-2040projectedprecipitationamountwilldecreaseby7–46%throughoutthecountry,exceptforthewesternregions. Indecade2040-2050anincreaseinprecipitationby13-15%isexpectedinthenorthernandcentralpartsandintheCrimea.Intheotherregionstheamountofprecipitationwilldecreaseby5-38%.
TheanalysisoftimeseriesoftheALTCDDindexshownthatthenumberofdrydaysinallareaswillincreaseandreachupamaximumin2044-2045.Duringthisperiod,isprojectedfrom30drydaysinForest-Steppeto51drydaysinthesouthernSteppe.
AccordingtoprojectedtrendsoftheSDIIindextheprecipitationintensitywillweaklyincreaseinallregions.Thehighestintensityupto5mm/daywillexpectedinthenorthernForest-Steppeattheendof2040s,whenthegeneraldecreaseofprecipitationsumsisexpected.
TheanalisysoftimeseriesoftheR95pTOTindexshowedthattheamountofextremeprecipitationwill increase during the study period. A maximum amount is projected in the central and south-westernStepperegions,whereitrangefrom115mm/yearin2020sto150mm/yearin2038–2039.
Keywords:climatescenario,precipitationregime,climateextremeindex
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-13
ClimaticimpactoverSouthAmericacausedbytheAmazondeforestationduringdistinctPacificDecadalOscillationphases
MariaElisaSilva,FFLCHUSP,Brazil
MariaElisaSilva,GabrielPereira,RosmeriRocha,AndréMedeiros,USP,Brazil;DanielMendes,USP,Brazil
Numerical simulations indicate specific changes in the precipitation patterns, mainly during thesummerperiod,overSouthAmericaduetodeforestationscenariosofAmazonianforest:precipitationdecreaseoveradjacentanddeforestedareas,and,ontheotherhand,precipitationincreaseovertheeasternSouthAmericasector.Diagnosticstudiesindicateadipole-likeprecipitationpatternovertheeastern side of South America during the positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO,phases.InthisstudyweverifiedtheabilityoftheregionalclimaticmodelRegCMnewversion,RegCM4,in simulate the climatic variability on the decadal scale over South America, from 1970 to 2003..Additionally,wesoughttoevaluatetheclimaticimpactoverSouthAmericaduetotheextrapolatedAmazondeforestationfortheyear2050,forthedistinctPDOphases.TheRegCM4modelwasabletorepresent theprecipitationdipolepatternobservedoverSouthAmerica for thethreePDOphases,althoughthedipolepatternisdisplacedsouthwardthantheobtainedwiththeNCEP-NCARreanalysisIprecipitation.ThedeforestationexperimentusingextrapolatedAmazonlanduseprovidedastrongerincrease of air temperature and precipitation over South America on the positive PDO phase ifcomparedwiththenegativePDOphases.Thenextstepswillallowquantifyingtheclimatic impactsduringElNiñoeventsoccurredonthedistinctPDOphases.
Keywords:Amazondeforestation,regionalmodelRegCM4,decadalvariability
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-14
AnanalysisofextremerainfalleventsovertheHimalayanregionusingcoupledmodels
CharuSingh,IIRS,India
CharuSingh,SanjeevKumarSingh,SantoshVishwakarma,IIRS,India
North-WestHimalayan(NWH)regioninIndianishighlyvulnerabletoextremerainfallevents.Duetointricatetopography,theobservationalnetworkissparseinthisregion.Owingtothelimitationswiththesatellitederivedrainfalldatasetsoverthemountainousregion,itposesseveralchallengestothescientificcommunitytoanalyseandmonitortheheavyrainfallevents.Inaclimatechangesscenario,asubstantialincreaseofheavyrainfalleventsovertheNWHregionisanticipated(Menonetal.,2013;Bhartietal.,2016andreferencestherein).Therefore,itbecomesessentialtoimproveforecastingskillsof the regional models to minimise the disastrous impact of the extreme rainfall events on thelivelihood of the region, however due to the availability of limited observational data sets, acomprehensive evaluation of themodel derived rainfall forecastmay not be carried out. Regionalmodelsthoseparticipated intheCORDEXprojectusestheboundaryconditionsderivedbycoupledclimateCMIP5models.Hence,itisalsoimperativetoassessthecoupledclimatemodelsinestimatingtheheavyrainfalleventsovertheNWHregion.Inthepresentstudy4CMIP5modelsareutilisedforanalysingtheextremerainfalleventsforvariousfuturewarmingscenarios(i.e.representativefuturewarmingscenarios:RCPs)forpresentyearsandtowardstheendofthe21stcentury.PresentanalysissuggestsasubstantialchangeintheextremerainfalleventsdistributionovertheNWHregionunderthewarmestfuturewarmingscenarioRCP8.5.
Keywords:North-westHimalayanregion,extremerainfallevents,regionalmodel,RCP8.5
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-15
InstitutionalizationofClimateAdaptationPractices:ACaseStudyofPlannedcityofChandigarh,India
ManojKumarTeotia,CRRID,India
Citiesseemtobeveryvulnerabletodisastersandclimaterelatedrisksoccurringmorefrequentlyinrecent past. The potential risks of disasters are putting pressure on city governments for devisingknowledge based innovative tools to cope with the emerging challenges. Chandigarh, the mostattractiveplannedcityinNorthwesternIndiahasinitiatedveryremarkableandparticipatoryinitiativesforimprovingenvironmentalconditionsinpoorneighborhoodsandinstitutionalizeclimateadaptationpractices. The major climate friendly initiatives of the city are introduction of Garbage Bin FreeScheme,SahejSafaiKendras(EasySanitationCentres),ScientificLandfillofWaste,SettingupofWastetoEnergyPlant,revitalizationofgreenbelts,parksandroundabouts,optingforenergysavingstreetlights, augmentation of secondary and tertiary treatment of liquid waste, SCADA for watermanagement, constructionofdedicatedbicycle lanes, switchover toCNG/LPGbasedautomobiles,modernization of fire services and a very important initiative of making solar energy systemscompulsory in the largerhousingunits. institutions andofficesetc. The resultsof the initiatives inChandigarhhavebeenremarkable.Thecityhasbeenadoptedasamodelcityforthesolarenergyandithasbeenmovingveryfastinmakingcitya‘solarcity’.Ithasalsobeenadjudgedthegreenestcityinthe country. Chandigarh has received awards for providing quality sanitation in 2010, bestperformanceawardforprovidingwatersupply,wastewatermanagementanddrainagein2008,anawardforincreasingforestandtreecoverin2010andsixawardone-governanceduringlastfiveyears.ThepaperbasedonsomestudiesbytheauthorisanefforttodescribetheinitiativesofChandigarhtowardsinstitutionalizationofclimateadaptationpractices.
Keywords:Institutionalization,ClimateAdaptation
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-16
CharacterizationofairandsurfacetemperaturecouplingovertheTibetanPlateau:Resultsfrommulti-sourcereanalyses
XuejiaWang,1.StateKeyLaboratoryofCryosphericScience,NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;2.ReginalClimateGroup,DepartmentofEarth
Sciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden
XuejiaWang,1.StateKeyLaboratoryofCryosphericScience,NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;2.ReginalClimateGroup,DepartmentofEarthSciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;DeliangChen,ReginalClimateGroup,Departmentof
EarthSciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden
TibetanPlateau(TP),knownasEarth’s“ThirdPole”,exertsatremendousinfluenceonregionalandevenglobalweatherandclimatesystemsthroughitsmechanicalandthermal-dynamicalforcing.Land-atmosphereinteractionsarekeypartsofEarthclimatesystems.Near-surfaceairtemperature(Ta)andsurfacetemperature(Ts),twocrucialparametersofland-atmosphereinteractionsandclimatechange,bothexhibitsignificant increasingtrendsontheTP,howeverwithdiversemagnitudes.Yet it isstillunclearwhetherandhowthetwovariablescouplewitheachotheralongwiththeirinvolvedphysicalprocesses.Inthisregard,thisstudyattemptstoanalyzethevariationcharacteristicsoftwoindividualvariablesatseasonalandinter-annualscalesanddetectthedistributionsandtrendsoftheircontrast(Ts-Ta)usingfourlatestreanalysisdatasetsECMWFfamily(ERA-InterimandERA5),MERRA2,andJRA-55, together with gridded observations. Possible forcing mechanisms are explored and discussedfurthermore.Thepresent findingswillprovide insight into regionalclimatemodeling improvementandadvancestudyofland-atmosphereinteractionsovertheTP.
Keywords:TibetanPlateau,Airtemperature,Surfacetemperature,Temperaturecontrast,Reanalysisdataset
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-17
AssessmentoftheUncertaintiesofOptionsintheNoah-MPLandSurfaceModelSimulationsoverChina
YanYan,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China
YanYan,JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China
Theinteractionsbetweentheatmosphereandthelandsurfaceisbelievedtohavesignificantimpactson the climate change. Land surface influences both regional climate andmesoscale atmospherethroughexchanges inheat,waterandmomentumwith theatmosphere.Themainpurposeof thisstudyistoassesstheimpactoftheNoah-MPlandsurfacemodeloptionsonregionalclimatesimulationoverChina.Therefore,wehaveperformed4groupsofsimulationsduringsummerandwinterseasonsof2007andof2015withtheWRFmodelcoupledwiththeNoah-MPlandsurfacemodel.Eachgroupcontains5experiments:NOAHMP,ALBwith theBATSsnowsurfacealbedoscheme,BTRwithCLMstomatal sesistance schemeusingmatric potentials as fuction of soil type,DVEG allowing annualyconstant vegetation fraction and time-varing LAI and SAI from lookup tables, ROUOFF adopting asimplegroundwaterparameterizationbasedontheTOPMODELrunoffscheme.Fromthecomparisonofthemeandistributionbetweenobservationandexperiments,highCORRsandrelativelylowRMSEsaredetectedforthetemperature.Duringsummersin2007andin2015,warmbiasesaregenerallyfoundinthenorth,whilecoldinthesouth.Theexperimentsalsounderestimatewintertemeperatureingeneral.However,relativelowCORRsforprecipitationwithlargerRMSEs(wetbiases)arefoundinsummer. For the inraseasonal variations, the comparisons between theNOAHMPandobservationshowhighCORRsandlowRMSEsforthemeansurfaceairtemperatureinsummerandrelativelargeRMSEsinwinter.Forprecipitation,theWRFmodelshowsrelativelypoorperformanceinintraseasonalvariability with low correlations and large RMSEs especially in summer. The intercomparisons ofexperimentswillbedicussedinthefuture.
Keywords:Noah-MP,options
ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land
B1-P-18
ImpactofEquatorialandNorthernBayofBengalSST'sontheIndiansummermonsoonrainfall
JohnsonZachariah,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India
JohnsonZachariah,C.ABabu,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India;HamzaVarikoden,InsdianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,India
The influenceofEastequatorial IndianOceanand thenorthernBayofBengalSST'son the rainfallpattern over monsoon core zone during Indian summer monsoon is investigated. During Indiansummermonsoon,rainfallovermonsooncorezoneandtheSSTattheEastequatorialIndianOceanarenegativelycorrelated,whereasitispositivelycorrelatedwithNorthernBayofBengal.Anewindex,thesummermonsoonSSTindexfromtheSSTdifferencebetweentheEastequatorial IndianOceanand theNorthernBayofBengal regions is formulated. SummermonsoonSST index shows strongcorrespondence with the intraseasonal oscillation of Indian summer monsoon and, rainfall overMonsooncorezonevaries incoherentwiththeincreasing/decreasingperiodsofsummermonsoonSST index. The rising limbof themonsoonHadleycell and theassociatedatmospheric convectionshowsnorth-south shiftingaccording to the increasing/decreasing trendsof summermonsoonSSTindex.ThiscoherentvariationofrainfallovermonsooncorezonewithsummermonsoonSSTindexsuggeststhatSST'satEastequatorialIndianOceanandNorthernBayofBengalareteleconnectedwithMonsooncorezoneandconsequentlymodulatetherainfallpatternoverMonsooncorezone
Keywords:Monsooncorezone,SummermonsoonSSTindex,IndianSummermonsoon