Paper of Energy crisis in Pakistan

7/27/2019 Paper of Energy crisis in Pakistan

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Committee on Energy Review of Energy sector in Pakistan

Insaf Research Wing

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Insaf Research Wing

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................................. 4

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................... 6

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES....................................................................................................................... 6

WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION ................................................................................................. 7

TOTAL WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL (2006).......................................................................................... 7

COAL AND ELECTRICITY ............................................................................................................................................... 7

SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN ..................................................................................................................... 8

DISTRIBUTION LOSSES IN ELECTRICITY ....................................................................................................................... 8

EFFICIENCY LOSSES IN ELECTRICITY ............................................................................................................................. 8

CIRCULAR DEBT ............................................................................................................................................................. 8

GAS EXPLORATION AND IMPORTS (LNG) ................................................................................................................. 9

GAS THEFT AND LEAKAGE............................................................................................................................................ 9 THAR COAL PROJECT .................................................................................................................................................. 10

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES ........................................................................................................................... 10

ROLE OF THE REGULATORY BODIES (OGRA, NEPRA) ........................................................................................ 10

INVESTMENT OPTIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 10

SHORT TERM (3-18 MONTHS) ................................................................................................................................... 11

MEDIUM TERM (2-5 YEARS) ........................................................................................................................................ 11

LONG TERM (5-10 YEARS).......................................................................................................................................... 11

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................................................. 13

ABOUT THE AUTHOR ............................................................................................................................................................ 13

INDEX A ................................................................................................................................................................................... 14

INDEX B ................................................................................................................................................................................... 15




Insaf Research Wing

Acknowledgements

A very special thanks to Mr Munawar Baseer Ahmed, former managing director PEPCO and SSGC. He was a

source of great inspiration and provided help in electricity and gas insight to Pakistan’s current energy crisis.

I would also like to express my gratitude to Mr Asim Khan President PTI London who introduced me to IRW

and very special thanks to Mr Asad Mahmood, Coordinator IRW, who is always helpful to facilitate and

encourage members in Insaf Research Wing (IRW).

I would also like to express thanks to my parents, family and friends for their support, encouragement,

constructive criticism and suggestions throughout the course of the research work.

Lastly it is hoped that this paper will be used in stimulating thought, self reflection and valuable discussion

amongst Central Executive Committee (CEC), PTI members, academics and provide as valuable a learning

experience for them as it has for the author.




Insaf Research Wing

IntroductionThe paper will highlight the energy mix consisting

of oil, gas, electricity, coal and alternative resourcesavailable to Pakistan. The paper will then discuss

current shortages in energy sector including

electricity and gas and available solutions for short,

medium and long term solutions.

Background

Pakistan has been suffering from acute shortage of

energy due to a lack of political will, incompetent

institutions, deteriorated law and order situation in

the country and absence of level playing field for

foreign and local investors.

Since independence, Pakistan has built only 13

dams while India has built more than 1,500 dams.

Similarly China has built 80,000 dams out of which

20,000 dams are relatively large dams including the

world’s biggest hydro dam known as Three Gorges

Dam (capacity of 22,500 MW). Pakistan has a

potential of above 100,000 MW 100,000 MW with

identified sites of 59000 MW including 44334 MW

on Indus River alone but due to infighting amongvarious political parties, corruption, and

manipulation of bureaucracy nothing has been

done in this regard. As a result, the entire country is

suffering in its domestic life, industry, commercial,

exports and local businesses. Since, the problem

has not been addressed it has become very

challenging for any government to meet the energy

demands for the foreseeable future.

The electricity shortfall is made worse by increasing

gas shortages as well. The install capacity of electricity is around 21,036 MW but due to circular

debt, line losses and theft we are unable to

generate electricity. As a result continuous load

shedding, and unscheduled power outages are

everyday story for all segments of Pakistan.

Many economic experts believe Pakistan is losing

around 2-3% of GDP every year due to the energy

crisis and if the problem is not addressed

immediately the flight of capital and collapse of

economy will be inescapable.

Pakistan has been blessed with ample water

resources but can store only 13% of the annual flow

of its rivers. The storage is fast depleting due to

sedimentation. In contrast USA has developed

497% storage capacity of annual flow of RiverColorado; Egypt possesses 281% of River Nile and

India 35% on Sutlej-Bias Basin. All these statistics

warrant construction of a number of reservoirs to

enhance availability of water which stands at 1070

cubic meter per capita. Anything below 1000 cubic

meter will lead to a water crisis.

With regards to coal reserves there is increasing

controversy among proven reserves of coal in

Pakistan. Some experts believe that Pakistan has

the world’s 2nd

largest reserves while others claimto be the 5

thlargest. However, Pakistan stands on

19th

position on world coal proven reserves with 0.3

of total share1.

Similarly, Pakistan has the world’s 28th

largest gas

reserves according to World Fact Book2. Ironically

the country with so much energy potential is on an

energy meltdown. In the overall energy mix, the

share of coal power is only 7% as compared to

world average of 40%. Coal is the main source for

producing cheaper electricity and the Governmentneeds to enhance the share of coal in the overall

energy mix of up to 18% by 2025.

Aims and Objectives

This paper has been drafted in order to identify the

problem areas in the current energy crisis facing

Pakistan. There is immense potential in different

areas; the paper will also seek to provide practical,

workable solutions for short, medium and long

term to meet Pakistan’s energy requirements.




Insaf Research Wing

Sources of Electricity Main sources of electricity are:

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Oil

Nuclear

Alternative/renewable

World Electricity Generation

There are many sources of electricity generation inthe modern age where coal provides 41% of world

electricity. Others sources include gas 20%, hydro

16%, nuclear 15%, Oil 6%, and others 2% which

includes solar, wind, combustible renewable,

geothermal & waste3.

Modern life is out of oxygen without electricity. It

lights houses, buildings, streets, provides domestic

and industrial heat, and powers most equipment

used in homes, offices and machinery in factories.

Improving access to electricity is vital to alleviatingpoverty.

Coal plays a vital role in electricity generation

worldwide. Coal-fired power plants currently fuel

41% of global electricity. In some countries, coal

fuels a higher percentage of electricity.

Total World Electricity Generation by Fuel (2006)

Source: IEA 2008

*Other includes solar, wind, combustible

renewables, geothermal & waste

Coal and Electricity

Coal in Electricity Generation

South Africa 93% Poland 92% PR China 79%

Australia 77% Kazakhstan 70%India 69%

Israel 63% Czech Rep 60% Morocco 55%

Greece 52% USA 49% Germany 46%

Ironically Pakistan’s current energy supply comes

primarily from indigenous natural gas which is 45%,

oil imports at 35% of the energy mix, with the

balance from hydro at 12%, coal at 6% and nuclear

at 2% respectively. Pakistan’s production of energy

from coal is abysmal when compared to the

advanced economies mentioned above like US,

China, Germany and Greece which are heavily

relying on Coal.




Insaf Research Wing

Sources of Electricity in Pakistan

Pakistan has 13 hydro power plants which are vital

for the country’s energy requirement as well as key

water reservoirs for agriculture. The electricity

produced from these dams varies yearly from 6500

to 2300 in summer and winter respectively. Hydro

electricity is still the cheapest source of electricity

in Pakistan with a total capacity of 21,036. Out of

which 6,516 MW is produced through Hydropower,

3,580 MW by Government (GENCOs), 8,295 MW by

Independent Private Power Producers (IPPs) and

594 MW through Private Rental.

Unit Cost of Different Sources of Energy

WAPDA is producing hydropower at Rs.1.06 per

unit as compared to Rs.9.07 per unit of thermal

power being produced by the IPPs and Rs.14.74 of

thermal power produced by Rental Power. The

demand of power is currently about 20,000 MWwhich will rise to 36,000 MW by the year 2015.

WAPDA has added 72 MW to the system in 2010

whereas it will add 1556.76 MW when Duber

Khwar HPP (130 MW), Allai Khwar (121 MW),

Jinnah HPP (96 MW), Gomal Zam Dam (17.4 MW),

Satpara Dam (17.36 MW), Rehabilitation of Tarbela

(100 MW) will produce power within 2012.

Distribution Losses in Electricity

PEPCO has line losses of 26% while, NationalElectric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) line

losses of up to 16%. Some distribution companies

like Hyderabad Electric Supply Company, Peshawar

Electric Supply Company, Quetta Electric Supply

Company and Multan Electric Supply Company

collectively losing Rs 90 Billion in distributionsystem. The most efficient of all is Islamabad

Electric Supply Company with 8% distribution

losses. The losses are due to poor maintenance of

Wapda power generation costing around 6 Billion

due to inefficiencies. Similarly, National

Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) is

losing power worth Rs 6 Billion annually in

transmission4.

Efficiency Losses in Electricity

Three major thermal companies in Muzaffargarh,

Guddu and Jamshoro, with a combined installed

capacity of 2800 MW can hardly produce 1700MW

and that too at an output efficiency of only 25%5.

Circular Debt

Wapda has a install capacity of above 22500 MW,

but due to gap in pricing it is unable to produce the

electricity. Wapda was producing electricity from

hydro and gas plants and some from furnace oil.

Due to the rapid growth of CNG, the demand of gas

has soared while new reserves have not been

discovered. As a result it has become impossible to

provide gas to the power sector which in turn

provides either expensive electricity or is forced to

stay idle adding in circular debt. In fact gas reserves

are not enough to meet industry requirements.

There is a huge gap of 1000 – 1500 mcf per daywhich needs to be bridged immediately. Major

industries have been closed due to the energy

crisis. The government and policy makers have to

take tough decisions and prioritize between

industry and CNG which many believe the latter is

mostly owned by the politicians. The current

circular debt is around 600-700 Bn consisting of

loans from local banks. Government is payingaround Rs 40-50 Bn interest to banks.

1.06

9.07

14.74

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Hydropower IPPs RPPs




Insaf Research Wing

Gas and

LiquefiedNatural Gas(LNG)

Gas is one of the important energy sources in

Pakistan. Pakistan is the world largest consumer of

gas both in private and public transport with over

2.5 million vehicles using the CNG as fuel. The gas

was half the price as compared to other sources of

fuel like oil, so over the years, Pakistan has

witnessed a mushroom growth of CNG stations

throughout the country specially Punjab. Realizing

the negative impact the current defunct

government is trying to reduce the gap between

gas and oil, but is unable to meet the gas

requirements of the industry. Many industries are

being shut due to gas shortage specially textile

which alone in last FY 2010-11 produced 60% of

exports.

Gas Exploration and Imports (LNG)

Pakistan has immense potential in further gas and

oil exploration. The exploration of oil fields around

the world is 1 to 10 where as Pakistan rates 3 to 10.

However the major hurdles are a lack of vision,

incompetence, low rate of drillings, demand of

heavy commissions from bureaucracy and absence

of level playing field for investors and international

companies.

Pakistan was already suffering from electricity

shortages for a decade but the problem is further

compounded with gas shortages due to the growth

of CNG, depletion of current gas reserves and poor

planning of LNG imports. Turkmenistan,

Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline

and Iran, Pakistan and India pipeline has been

debated and written by many experts in both the

print and electronic media however will remain adream. Both Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) and

Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) were

supposed to invest around $1.2 billion to $1.4

billion to create an additional capacity in their

pipeline networks to transport imported LNG to the

consumer, which to date they are unable todevelop

6.

Gas Theft and Leakage

Gas theft and leakage in Pakistan was under control

until 2003-2004 though it never has been to

international standards. The international standard

for theft known as unaccounted-for-gas (UFG) is 1-3

percent whereas the benchmark in Pakistan has

been set at 7%. The two gas utilities, Sui Southern

Gas Company (SSGC) had UFG level at 9.43 percent

in 2010-11 compared to 7.09 percent in 2003-04

while Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL)

had UFG level at 11.21 percent in 2010-2011

compared to 6.75 percent seven years ago7. Some

expert says that 500 million cubic feet of gas per

day is stolen, leaked or illegally sold to enrich

private pockets at public expense8.




Insaf Research Wing

Other Projects

Regulatory Bodies andInvestmentOptions

Thar Coal Project

The debate for Thar Coal for Pakistan’s energy

requirement has been the focal point of talk among

different energy experts but yet to see its

fruitation. Thar Coal can singlehandedly meet

Pakistan’s energy requirement if mining levels

above 500 mty are achieved according to Munawar

Baseer and Dr Farid Malik, one of the leading

energy experts. Once achieved, Pakistan can fully

meet its own energy requirements and also

produce surplus energy but no detailed mining

study or applications analysis on economic basis, or

test pit pilot project has been undertaken, an

acceptable bankable study has not been prepared

to-date9.

Alternative Energy Resources

Wind and Solar energy has been much debated

among different advocates. Alternative Energy

Development Board ran a pilot project near Kalar

Kahar but due to unknown reason the project didnot go ahead. There are also numerous articles and

reports about wind projects in Costal Areas of

Pakistan like Gharo, Kati Bandar, Karachi,

Hawksbay, and some areas in FATA as well. The

energy tariffs awarded to 5 different IPPs in wind

by NEPRA ranges from 10 cents to 16 cents which

will further add up in over circular debt10

.

Pakistan is fortunate to benefit from generous

sunshine throughout the year but it is still not

economical unless government provides incentives

to investors and manufacturers. Solar can replace

our current UPS if government provides installment

facility to consumer. It will definitely reduce burden

on grid. In spite of all the benefits, alternative

energy cannot replace our base load which needsto come from hydro, gas, & coal plants in the long

run.

Role of the Regulatory Bodies (OGRA,

NEPRA)

The role of Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA)

and National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

(NEPRA) has been inclined to business protection

rather than consumer. Both authorities have failed

to meet demand and supply of market and

Pakistan’s economy is suffering badly due to

demand and supply gap. There were many

instances where public interests were not

protected for instance Rental Power Projects

(RPPs). They have also failed to create an unbiased

image to attract local and foreign investment.

Investment Options

Donors like Asian Development Bank, IMF,World Bank

Private (local & foreign) investment on

small dams, wind, and energy projects

Government Bonds and Wapda Bonds

Advance bill option

Agriculture tax on land using dam water

Quantitative easing (Currency Printing)




Insaf Research Wing

Recommendation

Short Term (3-18 Months)

Enable full fuel supplies to power plants to

reduce power outages by about 25 to 30

percent (1500 MW – 2000 MW) within 3

months.

Fast Track Action to bring on-line stalled

power projects to add 400 MW (Nandi

Pur) in 6 months.

Fast Track local gas production of 350

mmcfd in 6-9 months

Facilitate local LPG production by 200tons/day in three months from available

capacity of processing rich gas, plus

additional 300 tons in six to nine months

from a new plant to reduce LPG shortage

and lower prices.

Discovered gas of 500 mmcfd needed to

bring in supply pool ASAP which is held

back for unknown reasons.

Forceful and coercive actions to control

theft and corruption in power and gas

companies to save Rs. 15 to 20 billion per

month and control circular debt. Recover lost capacity of 1000 MW of

generation companies through emergency

repairs, parts and rehab and reduce load

shedding by 15 percent.

The total customers for domestic,

commercial, trade & industry, and

agricultural are 23 million. Among them,

15.5 million are domestic users. Out of

these 15.5 million domestic users, 5.7

million users are on 50 units’ usage tariff,

and 4.6 are on 100 units’ usage tariff,

causing a lot of theft. It needs to berevised according to load management.

Scrap of Rental Power Projects (RPPs)

immediately and recovered the monies

which has been given in advance to supply

electricity.

Phase out ACs which consumes more

electricity and regulate manufacturer to

only produce ACs with high efficiency &

thermostat setting with range of (22-30).

Use of Bicycle in government and private

sector through media and public

partnership awareness campaigns.

Gas boiler needs to be replaced with

efficient and standby operative facility as

currently geyser or boiler who either run

24/7 or manually controlled to save

energy.

Medium Term (2-5 Years)

War footing completion of projects under

development at Annexure A.

500 MW (Chicho Ki Malian) in 18 months

and 400 MW (Guddu) addition in two

years

Facilitate LNG imports of 1000 mmcfd in

12-18 months with implementation of

private sector LNG projects, as well as LNGto reduce gas load shedding by 70 percent.

Smart prepaid/post-paid meters needs to

be installed in higher theft areas in stages

to reduce losses in PEPCO.

Circular debt reduction by Rs. 250 billion

by recovery/deduction at source of Rs. 100

billion from provincial governments, and

federal agencies and Rs. 150 billion from

private sector.

Energy mix needs to be shifted from POL

to Hydel, Bio-Diesel, and Coal thus

reducing burden on imports of oil whichare around 12 Bn US$ every year.

GENCOs efficiency enhancement through

necessary repairs and rehabilitation.

Theft control – Independent firm hired and

given share from theft recovery for gas

and electricity.

Long Term (5-10 Years)

The launch of new power projects on fast

track for 3,000 MW - 5000 MW.

There is a discovery of 27 Billion Barrel in

Pakistan, but only 3% has been utilized.

More local oil needs to be refined and

influence of cartels needs to be reduced.

Thar Coal project needs to be expedited to

add 3000-4000 MW in 4-5 years time.

Meeting energy requirements by building

dams (Annexure B), awarding new

contracts to gas and oil exploration to in

line with demand and supply requirement

of market.




Insaf Research Wing

Oil base loads needs to be reduced from

35% to single digit by 2025.

Industry, Domestic, and commercial user’s

needs to be educated towards energy

efficient buildings, maximum utilization of

sunlight during the day, and energyefficient home appliances by electronic

and print media campaign.

Energy Saving Targets needs to be set by

public engagement through electronic and

print media, school and university

campaigns.

Transport policy to save fuel and control of

transport through taxation. Public

transport needs to be improved and

subsidized to discourage private

transportation.

Mass transit in big cities like Karachi,Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad, Peshawar.




Insaf Research Wing

References

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal Accessed January 2012

2. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2179rank.html accessed January 2012

3. http://www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-of-coal/coal-electricity/ accessed January 2012

4. http://tribune.com.pk/story/326078/transmission-issues-power-companies-blamed-for-rs90b-electricity-losses/ accessed January 2012

5. http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/17/slow-progress-on-1bn-genco-plan-worries-adb.html accessed January

20126. http://tribune.com.pk/story/285815/fate-of-mashal-lng-project-unclear/ Accessed January 2012

7. http://tribune.com.pk/story/324213/ogra-likely-to-reject-high-ceiling-for-gas-theft-leakage/ accessed January 2012

8. http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=85705&Cat=2 accessed January 2012

9. http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2012-weekly/moneymatters-16-01-2012/mm_p3.htm Accessed January

201210. http://jang.com.pk/thenews/nov2011-

weekly/moneymatters -07-11-2011/mm_p8.htm

About the Author

The author is a member of the Energy committee.He has been in constant correspondence withenergy experts.

[E-mail: [email protected]]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal


https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2179rank.html






http://www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-of-coal/coal-electricity/





http://tribune.com.pk/story/326078/transmission-issues-power-companies-blamed-for-rs90b-electricity-losses/






http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/17/slow-progress-on-1bn-genco-plan-worries-adb.html






http://tribune.com.pk/story/285815/fate-of-mashal-lng-project-unclear/





http://tribune.com.pk/story/324213/ogra-likely-to-reject-high-ceiling-for-gas-theft-leakage/






http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=85705&Cat=2





http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2012-weekly/moneymatters-16-01-2012/mm_p3.htm%20Accessed%20January%202012







http://jang.com.pk/thenews/nov2011-weekly/moneymatters%20-07-11-2011/mm_p8.htm






mailto:[email protected]

































Insaf Research Wing

Index A

Hydropower Projects Under Completion

Sr

Name of

Project Location

PC-I

Cost (Rs

Billion)

Gen Capty

(MW) Donors/Lenders

Progress/

Completion

1

Mangla Dam

Raising Mirpur, AJK 62.558 644

GOP Funding/

Wada Bonds

Substantially

completed

2 Gomal Zam Dam FATA 12.829 17.4

GOP Funding/

Tariff Financing 59% (Jan 2011)

3 Satpara Dam Gilgit Batistan 4.397 15.8 GOP funding 87% (Oct 2010)

4 Khan Khwar Besham, KPK 5.363 72

IDB/Wapda Bond,

Tariff financing 94% (Oct 2010)

5 Duber Khwar Kohistan, KPK 9.754 130

IDB/Wapda Bond,

Tariff financing 74% (Jan 2011)

6 Allai Khwar

Battagram,

KPK 8.578 121

IDB/Wapda Bond,

Tariff financing 51% (Oct 2011)

7 Jinnah Jinnah Barrage 7.68 96

Chinese Supplier's

Credit/Tariff Fin 94% (Jun 2011)

8

Jabban

Rehabilitation Malakand, KPK 3.734 22

afd France/Tariff

Fin 5% (June 2013)

9 Neelam Jhelum AJK 130 969

Surcharge/Middle

East

donors/CEXIM 13% (Oct 2016)

Total 2087.2

Paper of Energy crisis in Pakistan

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