Paper Consumption India
Transcript of Paper Consumption India
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Trends in Paper Consumption and
the Impact on Demand forRecovered Fiber- India
Presented By
Ashu Vyas
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Weve been in India for 25 years and it shows.
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WorldsLargestMarketing
CompanySpecializinginPulp
andPaper
2.1Revenuesin
Excessof
Billion
Dollars
Moving
over5MillionTonsAnnually
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Global Foot Print
122 Countries
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Figures in Million Tonnes
Paper and PaperboardProduction Global Market
Source: RISI
383393 391
332 342
362 369
322329
371392E
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
United
States
W Europe Japan China India
Source: TerraChoiceMarketing Services, Inc.
Paper and Paperboard Output by
Region
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Indias Population1.16Billion
Median Age25.9Years
Economy11th Largest
Urbanization29% of India Lives in Cities
Source: CIA World Fact Book
GDP Growth7.4%
India
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95%
571
Indian Paper Industry
Paper Mills
have less than
50,000mts per annum
Million Tons
Global Market Share2.7%
8.9Manufactured9.9Demand
Estimated atMillionTons
8.5Per Capita
Consumption
Kg
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33.8
5.7
8.8
6.5
4.3
7.4
0123456789
10
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: IPMA
Indian Paper and BoardProduction
Source: IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
8.9
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0.8
3.3
0.1
2.6
0.4
1.75
India Production By
Grade
Source: Pyry/IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
0.95
0.2
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Indian Writing PaperDemand
2.6
3.113.3
3.5
4.254.5
4.8
4
2.932.75
3.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 211 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
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Source: IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
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Source: Hawkins Wright/IPMA
1.011.15
1.52
2.07
2.44
2.61
2.99
3.2
3.42
2.28
1.75
1.32
0.88
2.79
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Indian ContainerboardDemand
Figures in Million Metric Tons
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Source: Hawkins Wright/IPMA
Indian Cartonboard
Demand
Figures in Million Metric Tons
0.82
0.971.05
1.12
1.25
1.5
1.62
1.75
2.04
2.2
2.38
1.89
0.9
1.38
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Source: Poyry/Hawkins Wright/IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
Forecasted Paper andPaperboard Production Trend
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Contributors to Forecasted Growth
Strong EconomicClimate Low Per Capita PaperConsumptionGDPGrowthRateof6-9% since2004 8.5kgs Comparedto56kgsWorldAvg.
PaperProduction
willDouble by2020GrowthRateWill
Continueatthisrate
for5-10 Years
Cross Currents Impacting the
Forecasted Growth
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Challenges InadequateInfra-StructureFragmented
Market
Low RecoveryRate
UnorganizedCollection Program
Under 30%Recycling Rate
Poor DomesticTransportation
No Cheap Sources
of Power
Indian Mills areSmall
No Economies ofScale
Cross Currents Impacting the
Forecasted Growth
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Source: Poyry/Hawkins Wright/IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
Forecasted Paper and PaperboardProduction Trend
Forecasted Fiber Composition
2009
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23%
22%
55%
Source: Poyry/Hawkins Wright/IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
Forecasted Paper and PaperboardProduction Trend
Forecasted Fiber Composition
2015
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23%
21%
56%
Source: Poyry/Hawkins Wright/IPMA
Figures in Million Metric Tons
Forecasted Paper and PaperboardProduction Trend
Forecasted Fiber Composition
2020
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Recovered Paper Forecast
7.92
10.81
4.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2015 2020
Figures in Million Metric Tons
Source: PoyryIPMA
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USRecoveredFiber
ExportstoIndia
406
516479
588
465
615
713
973
859
11861223E
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: RISI
Figures in Thousand Metric Tons
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Imports orDomestic Collections?
60/40 Current Ratio ofDomestic to Imported
Recovered Paper
1.2 Million tons ofIncremental Imported
Recovered Fiber
1.8 Million tons ofIncremental Domestic
Consumption If Recovery Rate Increasesto 42% by 2015 and 48%
by 2020, Much ofIncremental Demand
Could be Fed by IncreasedDomestic Collections
At Current Recovery Rate At Increased Recovery Rate
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Source: Poyry
Fiber Composition of Indian
Paper Production
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Domestic Centric
Market
Competition From
China
Cross Currents Impacting the
Forecasted Growth
Will Domestic
Collections Grow Fast
Enough?
Required Quality of
Imported Recycled
Fiber Needed
Imports or
Domestic Collections?
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Conclusion
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Presented By
Ashu Vyas
Thank You