Pandaigdigang Krisis sa Pinansya
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Transcript of Pandaigdigang Krisis sa Pinansya
Pandaigdigang Krisis sa Pinansya
Katapusan na nga ba ng Kapitalismo?
October 2008
Discussion Outline
Ang Financial Crisis at Saklaw Nito
Ugat ng Financial Crisis: Sistemang Monopolyo Kapitalismo
Epekto sa Ekonomya ng Pilipinas at Manggawang Pilipino
Tugon ng Manggagawa at Mamamayan ng Buong Daigdig
Worst fin. crisis since the ’70s
Collapse of 3 out of 5 biggest investment banks Bear Sterns, Lehman
Brothers, Merrill Lynch Collapse of world’s largest
insurance firm American Insurance Group
(AIG) Banking status for bankruptcy
protection Goldman Sachs, Morgan
Stanley World’s biggest bank collapse
Washington Mutual
What happened in Wall Street?
March-08 – Bear Sterns bailed-out by JP Morgan with US$30 B backing of US Federal Reserve
Sep 7-08 – Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac bailed-out by Fed w/ up to US$100 B
each US$1.8 trillion in assets
Sep 14-08 – Lehman Brothers (US’s 4th largest investment bank) files for
bankruptcy with US$613 B in debt Merrill Lynch (US’s 3rd largest investment bank) bought by Bank of
America for US$50 B US$1.5 trillion in assets
Sep 16-08 – American Insurance Group, AIG (US’s largest insurer) bailed-out
by Fed with US$85 B loan US$1 trillion in assets
Largest nationalizations and transfer of debt in history
Mga Naunang Krisis sa Pinansya
1929 Wall Street Crash Great Depression
1987 “Black Tuesday” bailout package of $500 billion
1997 Asian Crisis
Ang Pangingibabaw ng Kapital sa Pinansya
Di maiiwasan ang mga krisis ng labis na produksyon sa ilalim ng Kapitalismo
Basic Contradiction
Pribadong pag-angkin
Sosyalisadong paggawa
Mga Lundo ng Krisis 1870 bunsod ng pagdami ng mga kapitalistang bansa;
paghahanap ng mga bagong kolonya/merkado
1911 – unang pangkalahatang krisis ng kapitalismo bilang imperyalismo; nagresulta sa WW1
1929 – ikalawang pangkalahatang krisis ng imperyalismo; nagresulta sa WW2
’60s-’70s – stagflation; wars of national liberation
’87-’98 – financial crashes in the US, Asia, Russia and Brazil
Mula pagitan ng 1911 at 1929, lumaki ang pagsalig ng monopoly capitalists sa financial markets upang makailag sa epekto ng overproduction
Securities – certificates or electronic book entries representing financial value, and traditionally used as a means of raising new capital. Debt securities – banknotes, bonds,
debentures, notes, commercial paper, deposits.
Equity securities – common stocks
Financialization
Production (industry, agri)
Financialeconomy
Realeconomy
New derivatives (ABS, CDO, MBS, hedge funds)
Stocks, bonds, mutual funds mortgages, loans
Speculative/fictitious capital
Less than 4 times GDP (1980)
Over 9 times GDP (2007) Financial services only
5% of US private sector jobs
1980s
2000s
Massive growth in digital “financial economy” versus real economy
Decreasing share of labor, increasing share of corporate profits
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Wages and salaries
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Corporate profits
Shares in national income, 1970-2005
Wages & salaries Corporate profits
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
By 2006:highest since 1950
By 2006:smallest share
of income on record
Paglikha ng mga “bula”
Likas sa financial capital May “sariling buhay” labas sa
real economy (speculation-driven)
May life span tiyak na sasambulat
1990s dot.com
bust
2007 sub-
primebust
Paglikha ng mga “bula”
Ang Kasalukuyang Fin. Crisis
Rising house prices fuelling debt-driven consumption
Cheap housing loans driving demand, increasing house prices by 80% since 2000
Speculative, self-feeding and no basis in real economy House prices increased faster than housing rents, incomes,
interest rates and the economy Disposable income falling
Rising house prices and “wealth effect” collateral for further debt and borrowing encourages continued consumption
BUT only while house prices rise
1980s
2000s
Soaring household debt
“Securitization” of mortgages
Subprime loans (5% interest)
Bundled as MBS, CDO, etc.
Sold to other banks and investors
Ang nangyari…
Unemployment/falling wages
Mortgage payment defaults
Foreclosures
House prices fall
Stock values of big banks fall
Bank collapse, credit crunch
The FalloutThe Fallout Various estimates:
Minimum US$400 B in mortgage-credit losses (c/o The Economist) will reduce net lending by
US$910 billion US$945 B worldwide (c/o IMF) Initial US$1-2 trillion, w/c is enough
to create a systemic banking crisis (c/o N. Roubini)
US$25-30 trillion worldwide (c/o FT)
Pagkakataon ang krisis upang lamunin ng iba pang dambuhalang kapitalista ang mga bumabagsak na kumpanya ibayong konsentrasyon ng kapital
“At the end of last year, the three lenders that are now the largest in US banking—Bank of American Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc.—collectively held 21.4 percent of all US deposits. Now, with this month’s government-backed sales of the banking assets of Washington Mutual Inc. to JPMorgan and of Wachovia Corp. to Citigroup, the Big Three instantly have a combined 31.3 percent of US deposits...”
Wall Street Journal (Sept. 30)
Impact on the real economyImpact on the real economyin the USin the US
An estimated 2.4 million or 1 in every 50 households in the US face foreclosure.
Savings, health insurance, and retirement funds of millions of ordinary Americans who were enticed to invest in pension funds and assorted financial instruments will also be wiped out as banks and investment houses write-down billions in assets
Credit crunch Recession 2008 3rd quarter job losses = 287,142 15 million jobless, 9.5% unemployment “Contagion” to the rest of the world economy
Tugon ng US gov’t.Tugon ng US gov’t. Ayudahan ang mga kapitalista sa pinansya
Ipapasan sa masa ang bigat ng krisis
“pribado ang tubo pero sosyalisado ang pagkalugi”
Repormahin ang kapitalismo, isalba ang sistema: more “regulations”, safety nets, etc.
Bailout ay magdudulot ng paglaki ng depisito sa badyet at paglobo ng utang ng gobyernong US, magpapahina sa US dollar at magkakait ng mga pondong dapat mapunta sa kagalingan ng mamamayan. Kaya't sa halip na masolusyunan ang problema, inilalatag lamang nito ang mas malaking kombulsyon sa sistema.
Pandaigdigang Epekto
Impact of global financial turmoil
US, EU & Japan and the world economy 52% of world GDP: EU (23%), US (22%), Japan
(7%) EU links with US
24% of exports to US, 15% of imports from US
Japan links with US 23% of exports to US,
12% of imports from US
Impact of global financial turmoil With collapse or crisis of financial institutions:
Investors in them lose their money Further credit/finance for economic activity shrinks (drops
in consumer spending/corporate investment) … sets economic slowdown in motion
US$500 B in global credit-related losses by financial firms so far… eventually over a trillion dollars? (c/o Economist) US$945 B worldwide (c/o IMF) Initial US$1-2 trillion, w/c is enough to create a systemic
banking crisis (c/o N. Roubini) US$25-30 trillion worldwide (c/o FT) Note: multiply by approx 14.5 to get total credit lost
(financial leveraging)
The International Labor Organization (ILO) warns that the global economic slowdown in 2008 will add at least 5 million workers to the ranks of the unemployed worldwide, raising the global unemployment rate to 6.1 per cent. This is based on a more optimistic scenario of 4.8% growth in global GDP, which has been revised downwards by the IMF. A deeper recession would add millions more to the 189.9 million unemployed as of 2007.
Updates (as of Nov. 2008)
Germany and the other EU countries now officially in recession.Collapse of German car industryLayoff of 20,000 automobile workers in 2008
US unemployment: 10 million as of November 2008
Another half million added within January 2009.
Very low consumer confidence falling market demand both for imports and local manufactures
Epekto sa Pilipinas
Impact sa Pilipinas ng kasalukuyang krisis pampinansya sa daigdig
P2 Trillion wiped out in Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) since August 2007
Paghigpit sa pautang: lower capital inflows to RP, higher cost of borrowing, interest rates
Pagbagsak ng piso: Since the start of the year, the peso has fallen 12.3 percent against the dollar; tinatayang maaaring bumagsak sa P50= 1US$
Pagtumal ng exports ng kalakal: around 16% of RP exports direct to US; up to 70% indirectly dependent on US & EU markets (through export of intermediate goods to TNC subcontractors in China, Taiwan, Korea, ASEAN, etc. for assembly into final goods destined for US, EU & Japan)
Impact sa Pilipinas ng kasalukuyang krisis pampinansya sa daigdig
Pagtumal ng exports ng serbisyo: 90% of BPO revenues from US market
Posibleng (?) pagbagal sa OFW deployment at pagliit ng halaga ng remittances: 33% of overseas pinoys in US; 51% of OF remittances from US
Pagtaas ng presyo ng pagkain at petrolyo dahil sa ispekulasyon sa “commodites futures trading”. Sa bawat 10% pagtaas sa presyo ng pagkain, 2.3 M Pilipino ang bumabagsak below the poverty line. Sa bawat 10% increase sa presyo ng petrolyo, 160TH Pilipino bagsak sa poverty line
Lahat ito ay nangangahulugan ng: lower internal and external demand higher unemployment, lower incomes, lower social spending, higher taxes, etc. in the immediate future
Mga posibleng higit na mapuruhan:Mga posibleng higit na mapuruhan:
Manupaktura: 125,000 manggagawa na ang tinanggal sa manupaktura
mula july 2007-july 2008; 1/3 ng total manufacturing employment sa bansa ay nasa
export-processing zones/ ecozones SMEs: 99.6% of formal sector establishments; 63%
of formal sector employment Construction Wholesale & retail trade Transport (dahil sa epekto sa presyo ng imported na
petrolyo) Agri (dahil sa presyo ng petroleum-based inputs, i.e.
fertilizers at ispekulasyon) BPO
Tugon ng gobyernong Tugon ng gobyernong Arroyo sa PilipinasArroyo sa Pilipinas
Denial, business-as-usual Fiscal stimulus dagdag korupsyon,
paglaki ng badyet deficit (P100 B sa 2008) at utang dagdag na buwis
“Targeted subsidies” pampakalma sa galit ng masa
Partikular na pananagutan ng Partikular na pananagutan ng rehimeng US-Arroyorehimeng US-Arroyo
Pangangayupapa sa US at iba pang dayuhang monopolyo kapitalista para sa patuloy na suporta nila sa kanyang pananatili sa poder (“development aid”, military aid, etc.)
Masugid na tagapagpatupad sa mga patakarang neoliberal para sa interes ng dayuhang kapital
Fiscal reforms (VAT & other onerous taxes) + automatic debt servicing
Pagpatay sa P125 wage increase bill, kontraktwalisasyon, etc.
Sellout ng pambansang soberanya at patrimonya (JPEPA, RP-US FTA, oil & mineral exploration, etc)
Charter change – not only for GMA pol agenda but also to serve US political & economic agenda
War in Mindanao to justify cha-cha & US mil intervention
Ano ang ating paninindigan sa harap Ano ang ating paninindigan sa harap ng kasalukuyang krisis?ng kasalukuyang krisis?
Labanan ang pagtatangka ng malalaking lokal at dayuhang kapitalista na ipabalikat sa mga mamamayan ang buong bigat ng kasalukuyang krisis na nilikha nila papel ng gobyerno
Palakasin ang ating paggigiit para sa pagbasura sa RVAT sa langis, pagtataas sa sahod nang P125 across the board, mas malaking badyet para sa serbisyong panlipunan, moratorium sa pagbabayad ng utang panlabas, at iba pang demokratikong kahilingan ng mga mamamayan.
Palitan at panagutin si GMA Pahigpitin ang ating pakikipagkaisa sa mga
mamamayan ng ibang bansa na lumalaban sa panggigipit ng imperyalismo.
Ang pangmatagalang solusyon sa Ang pangmatagalang solusyon sa pamalagiang krisis sa Pilipinaspamalagiang krisis sa Pilipinas
Ibasura ang mga patakarang neoliberal Tunay na reporma sa lupa Pambansang industriyalisasyon Sosyalismo
Sosyalisadong Pag-angkin para sa Sosyalisadong Paggawa
Hindi kusang babagsak ang sistemang kapitalista sa daigdig at ang sistemang malakolonyal-malapyudal sa Pilipinas, sa kadahilanang patuloy na kinukumpuni at itinataguyod ang mga ito ng mga naghaharing-uri gamit ang lahat ng kanilang yaman at kapangyarihan, panlilinlang at karahasan upang manatali sila sa poder.
Kailangan ang ibayong pagpupunyagi ng lahat ng pinagsasamantalahan at inaapi sa lipunan upang gibain ang mga naturang bulok na panlipunang istruktura at palitan ng isang alternatibong kaayusan kung saan may tunay na kalayaan, demokrasya at hustisyang panlipunan.
Maraming salamat po!