Intra-AsiaFDI(2004)

ExistingandPlannedHigh-speedRail

Routes

Manila

PacificAsiaSuperCorridor

600citiesworldwidewillaccountfortwo-thirdsofglobaleconomicgrowth2010-2025.(McKinseyGlobalInstitute)

Jakarta,Bangkok,HCMC,Manila1880-2000

Millions

1864 1964 2000

PopulationCity/Province

Korea1990-2005

ShrinkingCountrysideandCityPopulations

Population Change

1950-1990

Projected Change

2010-2030

Population 1995-2000 Population 2000-2005

Korea’sContinuingPolarization

JapanPrefecturePopulation2008-2009

v“Inthe last30years,morecities inthedevelopedworldshrankthangrew.”v“InJapan,hundredsofsmallandmidsizecities areshrinking”

Japan’sAbsolutePopulationDecline

RingofFireEarthquakes,Tsunami,VolcanicEruptions

Asia’sUrbanTransitionandIncreasingDisastersv Exposure tohazardsmultipliesasurbancentersgrow.v Rapidurbanizationexpandsexposure tohazardsv italsoincreasespeople’s vulnerability,especiallyamongthepoor(UNESCAP2012).

Asia2000– 2012² 1.6billionpeopleimpactedbydisasters² 40%ofalldisastersintheworldareinAsia² 88%ofpeopleaffectedliveinAsia

Theincreaseinconcentrationsofpeopleandgrowthofassets inhazardousareasisthesingle largestdriverofdisasterriskandgreatestchallengeformanagingdisasterrisks. (JhaandStanton-Geddes2013:17)

Shanghai Beijing Singapore

Source:GreenAsh(2013),NaturalDisasterRiskLevelsoftheWorld’sLargestCities.

DeathsfromEarthquakes

Earthquakes,Tsunami

MostAsiancitiesarepoorlyequippedtomanage:v environmentaldisastersv climatechangev contaminatedor

unstablelandv healthpandemicsManywillneedmassiveinvestmentsininfrastructure,publicservices,institutionalcapacityandenvironmentalprogrammes.

The11CriticallyUnpreparedCities=182

mn.peopleatrisk

v 1970- 2010peopleexposedtofloodinginAsiagrewfrom30to64mn.v Thepopulationlivingincyclone-proneareasgrewfrom71.8to120.7mn.v Exposuretodisasterriskisgrowingfasterthantheabilitytobuildresilience

Type1:Neighborhood communityFloodevictionlossofsocial support &livelihoods destitution

Compound disastersareaseriesofcomponentdisasters thatcontinuouslyoverwhelmexistingabilities torespond inchangingconfigurations. Theirsourcesareincubated longbefore adisasterandcancontinue longafteradisaster throughcascading effects.

Type 2: Cascading “natural disasters” Earthquake tsunami nuclear disaster long-term devastations

Type 3: Network effects global supply chains

TianjinJuly2015 Christmas ProductShortage2015

7Propositions

WhenDoesaDisasterBegin?WhenDoesaDisasterEnd?

1. IntheAnthropocene,disasters areincreasingly“incubated” byhumaninterventions innaturewellbeforea“natural”disastereventoccurs.

2. Post-disaster resilience hasgreaterpossibilities ifpre-disaster resilience ishigh.

3. Disastersoccurinpolitical space;whosevoiceishearddetermineswhatwillbedoneandwhowillbenefit. Marginalizedpopulations tendtoremainmarginalizedwhendisasters occur.

4. Disasterresilience issignificantly impacted bymegatrends thatintersect inspecificsettings andmoments – contextmatters.

5. Disastershavecompounddisasterseffects,whicharedifficulttoanticipate.

6. DisasterResilience isasocial learningprocess,notthesole application ofexpertknowledge.

7. Mostofdisaster resilience restsonactionsnotdirectlyrelatedtoadisaster event,butisinstead embedded inprogressivecityregiongovernance.

TheDisasterWheelofResilience

ModelsofPost-disasterResilience

DisasterEvent

The“ForgottenPhase”

Singlevs.CompoundDisasterHypothesisSingle-event resilience Path CompoundDisasterresilience Path

Implications: theneedtodopolicyresearchwellbeforeandlongafteradisasterevent.

TheSearchforMulti-ScalarResilience

Personal/Household

MICRO(Neighborhood)

DisasterEvent

Time

MACRO(Mega-Trends/National-Global)

Bangkok(2011)

Nepal

Jakartakampung

1

2

3

MESO(CityRegion,RiparianRegion)

• Urban Transition• Financialization• Depopulation

JakartaProposedSeaWalland17LandfillIslands topreventcitywidefloodingwhile

promotingcorporatizationofthecityandeliminatinglow-incomeneighborhoods

Luxuryresorts,GolfIsland,PluitCity

Mangrovesandcoastalhabitat?

GroundSubsidence 1974-2010

EvictionandResettlement ofPluitReservoirHouseholds

v 20-30%ofJakartapopulationlives inslumswithsignificant floodrisk.Only35percentofJakarta’spopulationhasdirectaccess topotablewater

v 32percentofdwellinghaveapercapitalivingspaceoflessthansevensquaremeters.

v Mostdonothavelegaltitle totheland;threatsofdemolitionandremovalarealsoeverpresent.

CompoundEffects:Poverty,Flooding&Evictions

TheExpandingReachofCities–

Global Sources of WaterProjected Disappearance of Tibetan/Himalayan Glaciers

² Impacts of large dams on rivers, watersheds and aquatic ecosystems are more negative than positive

² Irreversible loss of species and ecosystems.

² Impoverishment and displacement affecting some 40-80 million people.

² Human rights and equitable distribution of benefits.

² (Source: World Commission on Dams)

Mega-damFunders1950-1999

: coastalshift,mega-urbanregions,newandmassive vulnerabilities, cityandregionaldepopulation, intercitytransmissions ofimpacts ofdisasters.

shifttowardshrinkingpopulations incountryside,townsandcities

– potential ofconflictdisasterstomergewithenvironmentaldisasterswithoutgovernancestructures inplace(refugees,cross-border“waterwars”)

extremeweatherevents,risingsea levels,disappearance oftheHimalayan-Tibet glaciers.

ofgovernmentandfinancialization ofglobalcapital: deepcuts insocialservices, precariousgovernmentfinancial conditions and“rainyday”funds.

increasing infrequencyandcompounding costs

newformsofcommunication duringandafterdisasters

v ….

Howdoweintegratemega-trendsintodisasterresilienceconcepts,anticipationandresponses?

Personal/Household

MESO– National SpatialTrendsandDisparities

MICRO– Depopulatedtowns&Villages,

UnevenDevastations

MACRO–Demographicshift

and“lost”decadesoftheeconomy

GRDPPopulationGrowth

Japan’sEconomyVsChinaandUS

ü Thecompetitiveness andattractiveness ofeachcityismeasured bythepresenceofglobally renowned institutions (Fortune500companies) headquartered inthecity,whichareindications ofdiversityandcivilsocietystrength.

ü Forcompetitiveness, thesocialandculturalcharacterofacityhasbeenweightedat5% (EIU2012).

“Citieseverywherearemakersofwealth,magnetsfortheindustrious,motorsofinvention.Thecityisanengineofgrowth” (WorldBank1996).

City Competitiveness Index

v “splintering urbanism”– thecityasprivatearchipelagos

v “privatopia”

v “desocialization ofspace”

v “geographies ofnowhere”,“variationsofathemepark”,and“non-places.” “theurbanspectacle ascommodity,”

v Assemblages ofde-nationalized Spaces

v Secessionary networkedspaces.

v “Wearewitnessinglargescalecorporatebuyingofwholepiecesofcities.Whatwassmalland/orpublicisbecominglargeandprivate.Corporatemega-projectsinevitablykillmuchurbantissueoflittlestreetsandsquares,street-levelshopsandmodestoffices.Theyraisethedensityofthecity,buttheyactuallyde-urbanise it– densityisnotenoughtohaveacity.

v Ifthecurrentlarge-scalebuyingcontinues,wewilllosethistypeofcitymakingthathasgivenourcitiestheircosmopolitanism. onethataltersthehistoricmeaningofthecity.Suchatransformationhasdeepandsignificantimplicationsforequity,democracyandrights.

Saskia Sassen(2015)“Whoownsourcities”TheGuardian, 24November2015.

CorporatizingCityRegionsinAsia

COEXMall

SingaporeIon

•(Pre)ColonialCity

•EPZs

•Highways

•Peri-urbanHousing

•NewTowns

•Simulacra

•Franchise/Malls

•BusinessDistricts

•WorldHubs

•GlobalSpectacles

•SymbolicTowers

c.1985Zaha Hadid, Seoul

Jakarta

NewEraofMega-Projects1985-presentInjustoneyear,2009,mega-projects inJakarta jumpedby30%

v 1995-2001Jabodetabek sawtheconstruction of25newtowndevelopmentprojects ranging from500to6,000hectareseach.

v Commuting fromthesurrounding areas toDKIJakarta increased10foldfrom1985to2002.About1millionpeoplenowdailycommuteintoJakarta’s urbancore.

LuxuryCondos,JakartaCoast

NewTowns1980-2000

“Urbanizationhaswaterproofedthesurface,causingincreaseddirectrunofftothe13riversofJakarta.Inthelastdecade,largeshoppingcentersandupperclassresidenceshaveprogressively beenreplacingtraditionalneighborhoods(kampungs)andreducingvegetatedareas.”

FastestSinkingAreas

GreeningChina’sUrbanization

Issuesv Nosuccesses todatev “greenwashing”(e.g.,golfcourses)v Environmental costsarehuge:loss

ofwildlifesanctuaries, materialsused,commutingtoemploymentcentres

v Absence ofresidentparticipationv Fixed, inflexiblelanduses

Ø Tooremote,tooclass-exclusive andexpensive.Ø Theyarealsotoopronetomarketing gimmicks

andeconomicorpolitical subterfugeØ toolimited toreallyhaveadecisive impactonthe

broaderurbanenvironment.

Meixi LakeEcocity,Hunan

TianjinEcoCity

PhilippinesIskandar,Malaysia

Sino-SingaporeUS$24bnfor350,000residents by2020.one-half thesizeofManhattan

ü Wetlandstoattractbirdsandanimalscreatinganeco-system,

ü Windturbinesandsolarpanelsfor20%ofcity’senergy

ü Organicwasterecyclingforpowergeneration,

ü Powerandwaterconsumptionmanagementwithinthebuildings,

ü Desalinatedwaterfromthesea,ü Smartbuildings.http://www.myco2.com/ecocities/tianjin-eco-city/

Criticism (WorldBank):“Wideroadsdesigned forcarsdwarfthenarrowbike lanesandsidewalks.Whilemanyofthecity’stallslimmer buildings areclustered togethertoincreasewalkability,these giantblocksareaboutfourtimes thesizeofatypicalblockinManhattanandmakepedestrian andbikejourneyscumbersome.”

Songdo,Korea

100km2,5newtowns.US$30bn.2hoursfromPuneIThub.For300,000residents.Expectedtotake20yearstocomplete.

o Everything except the post office and police station – is run by a corporation,o “with sweeping rights over nearly all aspects of the life of the residents.”o No mayor, just a city manager, appointed by the board of Lavasa Corporation Limited.o All services and schools are privately owned and run. Many are global tie-ups.o Receives government subsidies for spurring tourism.o The least expensive apartments now sell for between $17,000 and $36,000 – out of

reach for most middle-class Indians.

“abundantaccess tonature,acosmopolitanlifestyle, goodschools,afunctionalandcleancity,anuninterrupted powersupply,high-speed internet,e-governance,drinkabletapwaterandawalkablecityinwhichtheneed forcarsisminimal”

•Intra-AsiaForeignWorkersandMulti-culturalSocieties

v Part-timer and sub-part-time labour = 1/3Japan'sandKorea’swageworkers(2009).

v Sharesareincreasing,andaveragewagesarefalling.

• Impermanent Employment - Precariatization

China

South Korea

Singapore

•IncreasingInequality

•470millionpeoplelivinginslumsin2010,withnumbersincreasing

PoliticalFreedom&Democracy20

15WorldPressFreedom

Index

Source:ReporterswithoutBorders

DemocracyinRetreat

Ø “Democracyisontheretreat andauthoritarianismisontherise intheGlobalNorthandSouth…”

Ø “Those…defending localcommunities fromlandgrabsandenvironmental degradationhavebeensubjected tovariousformsofpersecution.”

Ø “Thelinkbetweenunethicalbusinesspracticesandclosingcivicspaceisbecomingclearerasglobalinequalityandcaptureofpowerandresources byahandfulofpoliticalandeconomiceliterises.”

UnitedNations(2015)

MiyashitaPark,Tokyo

TokyoAnti-APECProtest2010

HongKong“Umbrella”OccupyMovement

ForeignWorkers,Taipei

EnvironmentalProtestors,Qidong,China

Bersih4.0GoesGlobal

“GrassrootsCosmopolis”– “whereinhabitantscanasserttheirdifferencesandnegotiatetheminaproductiveandaffirmativeway”

SociallyJust,RighttotheCity,Empowerment

“Inhumanhappiness,creativeactivityandasenseofcommunitycountforatleastasmuchandmaybemorethanmaterialstandardofliving.”

Beyondsustainabledevelopmentas“doingnoharm”andtowardtherestorationandregenerationofnature

…ofconsciouslyreturningmorethanistaken.

InclusioninPublicLife

DistributiveJusticeConviviality

FlourishingBiosphere

HumanFlourishing

“fulldevelopmentofintellectual,physical

andspiritualpotentialsinthecontextofwider

communities”

ProgressiveCityRegionsforResiliencethroughHumanFlourishing

v Aristotle’s4th centuryBCE:eudaimonia – “theinnatepotentialofeachindividualtolivealifeofenduringhappiness, penetratingwisdom,optimalwellbeing,andauthenticloveandcompassion” (Ramussen 1999:1).

v InConfucianism itappearsasaformof“learning tobehuman”whichismadepossibleas a“communal act”,withtheself“neveranisolatedindividualbutacenterofrelationships.” (neo-Confucianist scholarTu WeiMing)

v JohnFriedmann (2002),humanflourishing isthecentralideaofanalternative development tocounter thehegemonyoftheprevailingneoliberalworldsystemdedicated tothepersonal (material) enrichmentofafew.

v Human flourishing isauniversal claim thatdepends onreciprocalandredistributive cooperation. Itrestsonenhancing individualcapacitiesandthedifferences thatresultfromthem. Theideaarises frommanycultural,religiousandphilosophicalorigins.

APublicCity– APolisofCivicLife

therighttodirectlyparticipate inchangingthecity.

ü Livingwageü Socialhousingü Collective

consumptionü ….

5FacesofOppressionv exploitationv marginalizationv powerlessnessv culturalImperialismv violence (I.M.Young1990)

v Participatorygovernance, freedomofspeech,assembly

v Theideaofthepublicinterestandcommongoodv Expands thecommonsv Publicandcivicspaces forpubliclifeandcivicism

Empowermentv Defensible lifespacev Surplustimev Socialorganizationv Socialnetworksv Otherdimensions (Friedm

ann19

92)

TheOppressedtobeco-creatorsofknowledgethroughcooperation,unity,organizationandculturalsynthesis(PauloFreire1970)

PedagogyoftheOppressed

�Inhumanhappiness,creativeactivityandasenseofcommunitycountforatleastasmuchandmaybemorethanmaterialstandardofliving.�

Convivial SpacesOpen, public spacesHuman scaleMixed useLocal cultural practicesPlace-making/vernacularInclusive Allows for spontaneity

v Failureof“SustainableDevelopment” (1987UNBrundtland Report) instrumental usesofnatureasenvironment-economy trade-off.

v “Therapiddwindlingofbiodiversityduringthelastcentury represents notonlyanirreversibleimpoverishment ofourhumanexperience andthelossofessential contributions tohumanwell-beingnowandorgenerations tocome.”

v Ahuman-centered cityisalsoanature-centeredcitydrawingfromhumanvaluestonurture theEarth’svitality.

Bangkok’sBaanMankongCollectiveHousingProgram

InitiatedbytheCommunityOrganizationsDevelopmentInstitute(apublicorganizationundertheMinistryofSocialDevelopmentandHumanSecurity).January2003

vTotal2011: 277cities,73provinces

v Upgradingprojects in1,010communitiescompletedorunderway in226townsandcities,in69ofthecountry’s76provinces,involving54,000households

Asthe2011floodcametoBangkok,thecommunityorganized topreparesandbags,openadisastercenterwithakitchentoprovide food,andbasicmedicalequipment.

ResearchonProgressiveCitiesinAsiav Whatisaprogressive city?v Inwhatwaysisaspecific city

progressive?v Whatarethedrivers thatgiveriseto

itsprogressivity?v howwasprogressive governance

achieved ineachcase?v inwhatwaysaretheybeingeffective

(ornot)?v whataretheirprospects forthe

future?

,2002-2011

$31billion“Dreamhub” 152storybuilding.

“Hangang Renaissance” plancoveringatwentyyearperiodandcomposed oftwenty-twomega-projects.SCGtoinvest672.6billionupto2010.uTheentireHanRiverareatobean“iconic landmark,whichwillallowthecitytohavecompetitiveness” intheworld(quoted inKim2008b).u“SecondMiracleontheHan”

FortifiedCityHall

Inclusion– “Making Seoul a city for the citizens and by the citizens.”v Citizenismayor!:citizenmayor,openingmayoroffice,on-sitemayorofficev Citizens‘committeesonreformagenda:fairtrade,energysaving,cityplanning,humanrights,housing

redevelopment, traditionalmarkets,urbandesign,etc.v Policy-listeningfromcitizensv Civilianofficersrecruited fromcitizens v Institutedparticipatoryplanningandbudgeting

DistributiveJustice:“Welfareisnotcharity,buttheendowedrightofcitizens”v Sharingservices forasharingcityv Initiatedsocialeconomyv Social fundforsocialhousingandsocialbusinessventurev Welfare-basedcommunityregenerationv Freeschoolmeal,housingallowance, jobcreationfortheelderly, cuttingCUS’tuitionbyhalf

Conviviality– “IwanttomakeSeoulacityfulloffun.”v CMapo powerplanttoacultureplant,Seoul’shighlinev Designated1000futureheritagesv Humanscaleurbandesignwithneighborhoods,supportforculturalartisanbusiness

Environment– “MakeSeoulaCityofSunlight”v Sustainabledevelopmentascoreprinciplev RenovationofCheonggyecheon forenvironmental sustainabilityv Eco-MileageSystemv OneLessNuclearPlant(alternativeenergy,recycling,energyusereduction)v MayorParkelectedChairmanoftheWorldMayorsCouncilonClimateChange(WMCCC)

Innovations forProgressiveCities

² Participatorybudgeting² Socialeconomy&communityenterprises² Sharingcity² Communitycurrency² Collectivetenure² (Re-)makingthecommons² Transformingabandonedspacesintocommunitycenters² (Re-)establishingopenmarkets,publicspaces² Participatoryartandculturalfestivals² Directcitizenparticipationingovernmentdecisionmaking² Humanscalearchitecture² Progressivecitieslinkingwithprogressivecitiesand(inter-)

nationalNGOstoscaleupenvironmentalprograms.

(1) Directlyaddressingdisaster-relatedproblems(includingcompound effects)ü Rebuildingü Counselingü Socialnetworksü Livelihoods

(2) Changinggovernmentandlawstogaintherighttoparticipateingovernanceandtodwellinthecityü Democraticreformsü Anti-eviction lawsü Participation ondisastermitigation andrecoveryprocesses

(3) Linkwithothercivilsocietyorganizationtocreateavoiceinthepublicsphere.

(Author)

(1) Actionsforresilienceneedtobeengagedintransformativeprocessestowardprogressivecityregions– notareturntothestatusquoante.

(2) Themajorchallengeresilienturbanismistoreclaimcityregionsaspublicspheresofdecisionmakinginwhichindividualsflourishthroughassociationalandpubliclife.

(3) Inanageofplanetary urbanizationinwhichruralandurbanactivitiestakeplaceinglobal(izing)matricesofcityregions,apatial rural-urbandichotomiesarenotusefulanalyticallyorforpolicies.ü Rural-urbanrelationsareinterdependencies,notoppositionsü Ruralregionsareinvariablytownorcitycenteredü Post-agrarianruralregionscannolongerbedefinedasagricultureplus

village.

(4) Thefutureoftheworlddependsongoodgovernanceofcityregionsratherthannation-statelevelsofpolicymaking.

(5) Scalingupprocessesofgovernancefromthegrassrootsholdsthegreatestpromiseforgainingplanetaryresilience.