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M E M O R A N D U M 

TO: DENT FOR  CONGRESS COMMITTEE

FROM: DAVE SACKETT

RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A SURVEY OF VOTER  ATTITUTES IN THE 

FIFTEENTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT OF PENNSYLVANIA

DATE: JANUARY 21, 2010

 _______________________________________________________________________ 

 _ 

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Dent for Congress Committee with the key

findings from a survey of voter attitudes in the Fifteenth Congressional District of 

Pennsylvania. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=300 “likely”registered voters throughout the district. Responses to this survey were gathered January

19-20, 2010 and the confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is + 5.8%.

KEY FINDINGS

Congressman Charlie Dent holds a commanding +26 lead over Democrat challenger John Callahan on the ballot test. Fifty-three percent (53%) indicate they would vote

for Dent, and only 27% indicate they would vote for Callahan. Eight percent (8%)

indicate they would vote for the Libertarian Party candidate, and only 12% of districtvoters remain undecided.

Dent totally dominates the ballot test throughout the district, leading Callahan by

 better than 18 points in every single region and county in the district. Dent is beatingCallahan in Callahan’s home county over 20 points.

Charlie Dent captures ninety percent (90%) of the vote among Republicans, and isalso winning the vote of one in four Democrats throughout the district. Less than half 

of district Democrats indicate they would vote for Callahan.

201 N Union Street, Suite 410

Alexandria, Virginia 22314

(703) 684-6688

(703) 836-8256 FAX

dsackett@tarrance.com

THE TARRANCE GROUPwww.tarrance.com

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As has been the case throughout the country with elections in the last three months,

Congressman Dent also strongly dominates the ballot test among Independent voters,and he leads Callahan among Independents by more than +30 points.

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It is important to note that Dent even dominates the ballot test among those who“know both” candidates, leading Callahan by +18 points among these voters. His

dominance on this ballot is not simply driven by a name ID advantage.

Dent’s current ballot strength is typical of his performance in past elections, as hecaptured fifty-nine percent (59%) of the vote in 2008, outperforming President

Obama and demonstrating a very strong +16 ticket-splitting propensity.

Dent remains the most well known and popular and well respected political figures in

the district. His name awareness is over 90%, and sixty-one percent (61%) of district

voters indicate that they have a favorable impression of him and approve of the job heis doing as their Member of Congress.

The political environment in the district also heavily favors Dent and the

Republicans. Republicans maintain a +8 advantage on the generic ballot for 

Congress, and two-thirds of district voters indicate that they have an unfavorableimpression of Nancy Pelosi.

President Obama’s job approval ratings have also suffered massive erosion among

voters in the district, and are now down at a point where almost half of district voters,

forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove of the job he is doing, and only 41% approve.

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