P3A Sulaiman Mahbob Developing and Implementing National...
Transcript of P3A Sulaiman Mahbob Developing and Implementing National...
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DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING NATIONAL DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING NATIONAL PLANSPLANS
DATUK DR SULAIMAN MAHBOBDATUK DR SULAIMAN MAHBOBEXECUTIVE DIRECTOREXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
NATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION DIRECTORATENATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION DIRECTORATE
22 SEPTEMBER 200622 SEPTEMBER 2006KLCCKLCC
Malaysia : Economic Growth TrendsMalaysia : Economic Growth Trends
Real GDP
50
150
250
350
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006e 2007f
RM b
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
An. ch. %RM b(LHS) Real GDP
6.0%7.5%5.9%9.2%-7.4%6.1%8.3%0.4%4.1%5.3%7.1%5.2%5.8%6.0%
1960’s1970’s1980’s1991-97199819992000200120022003200420052006e2007f
Asian Asian Financial Financial
Crisis Crisis
Sept 11 Sept 11 & & SarsSars
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Malaysia : Malaysia : External position strengthens furtherExternal position strengthens further
International Reserves
50
150
250
350
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006August
RM b
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Months/Times
Goods 125.6 137.9 145.8Services -9.0 -11.4 -13.3C/A balance 75.7 87.9 94.7F’cial acct -37.0 - -
FDI 3.8Portfolio -14.2Others -26.6
E&O -25.0Overall bal. 13.6
Debt service 5.3 4.3 Ratio(%)
RM b2005 2006e 2007f
Balance of Payments
291.3291.3
8.18.1
6.16.1
Months of retained import Months of retained import
Multiples of short term debt Multiples of short term debt
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Federal Government Financial Position Federal Government Financial Position --expansionary but deficit remains at prudent expansionary but deficit remains at prudent levellevel
-3.4-4.8-3.4-3.5-3.8-4.3-5.3% of GDP
-107.6-97.8-20.2-19.3-18.7-19.4-20.9Overall Bal.
Gross Dev Ex
Current Acc
Operating ExRevenue
39.4
17.4
75.292.6
RM billion
2003
28.9
8.1
91.399.4
2004
30.5
8.6
97.7106.3
2005
35.8
15.2
105.4120.6
2006e
44.5
21.8
113.0134.8
2007f
170
64.7
396.7461.4
Achieved8MP
200
87.6
595.5683.1
Target9MP
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Unemployment:Unemployment:remains stableremains stable
Unemployment
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
An. %Inflation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
An. %
Inflation: manageable but Inflation: manageable but upside risk prevailsupside risk prevails
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Poverty EradicationPoverty Eradication
Unit RuralUrbanRuralUrban MalaysiaMalaysia
0.8
86.1
3.3
4.0
323.2
14.8
1.4
311.3
5.7
0.6
91.6
2.5
(%)
(‘000)
(%)
Year
3.02.3Poverty Gap
219.7409.3Number of Poor Households
11.98.5Incidence of Poverty1
20041999Overall Poverty
Notes: Notes: 11 Refers to households with monthly gross income below PLIRefers to households with monthly gross income below PLI
Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan 2006Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan 2006--2010, EPU, Prime Minister2010, EPU, Prime Minister’’s Dept, s Dept, PutrajayaPutrajaya, 2006, 2006
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Developing and Implementing National Developing and Implementing National Development PlanDevelopment Plan
Involvement and Engagement of Top Political Leadership
Commitment of Senior Civil Servants
Interdepartmental Coordination
Availability and Prudent Management of Resources
Trained Manpower at policy and project level
Implementation Capacity and Monitoring Mechanism©© 20062006 NATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION DIRECTORATENATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION DIRECTORATE
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KEY INSTITUTIONSKEY INSTITUTIONS
The Cabinet
The NDPC
The Chief Secretary
The Role of EPU
Supportive Role of MOF and Central Bank
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Need Strong Central Planning Need Strong Central Planning OrganizationOrganization
Indicative and Market-Based Plan
Macroeconomics
Long-term Growth and Distribution
Other Developmental Concerns
- Industrialization, Technology and HRD
Major Sectoral Divisions
- e.g. Health, Education, Infrastructure©© 20062006 NATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION DIRECTORATENATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION DIRECTORATE
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CRITICAL ELEMENTS OF CRITICAL ELEMENTS OF FIVEFIVE YEAR PLANSYEAR PLANS
Identification of Long Term Issues and Targets- example: NEP and Vision 2020
Analysis of Malaysian Macroeconomy- national accounts including Public Finance
Thrust on Growth with Equity- given Malaysia’s history and the demands of a Plural Society
Prudent Fiscal Stance and Budgetary Allocation
Key Sectoral Policies, Programmes and Targets- Manufacturing, Agriculture, Services, Infrastructure
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FIVE YEAR PLANS AND NATIONAL FIVE YEAR PLANS AND NATIONAL BUDGETBUDGET
Total Allocation is based on Resource Availability
Operating Budget – MOF
Development Budget – EPU
Annual Budget for both
Development and current Expenditure
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IMPLEMENTATIONIMPLEMENTATION
The Role of Implementation Coordination Unit (ICU) and the Project Monitoring Mechanism
The Recent Establishment of Implementation Directorate for High Impact Projects (HIPs)- Poverty Eradication and Human CapitalDevelopment
The Implementation of Program Planning and Management System (PPM)
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PROJECT PLANNING CYCLEPROJECT PLANNING CYCLE
EvaluationEvaluation
Feasibility StudyFeasibility Study
ImplementationImplementation
Project PlanningProject Planning
Monitoring
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PROGRAMME AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT (PPM) PROGRAMME AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT (PPM) FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK
Source : Innovation Associates, 2006 13
NID STRUCTURENID STRUCTURE
NITF(National Implementation Task Force)
Minister (Minister in PM’s Department)
NID(National Implementation Directorate)
EPU(Economic Planning Unit)
ICU(Implementation Coordination Unit)
MOE MOHE MOA/AB MOR/RD
PPM PPM PPM PPM
HIPs / BCIC2(High Impact Projects / Bumiputera Commercial & Industrial Community)
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