P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
-
Upload
asia-clean-energy-forum -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
0
Transcript of P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
1/28
SAENAsian Development Bank
June 2012
CLEAN ENERGY IMPACT
ofSOUTH ASIA
CROSS BORDER POWER TRADE
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
2/28
Presentation Structure
SAARC Regional Energy Trade Strategy Focus
Regional power market expansion
Cross border interconnection benefits
Fuel cost savingsConcluding Remarks
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
3/28
SAARC Regional Energy Trade Study
(SRETS) Focus
Key energy sector challenges
Projected energy demand and supply constraints Current and proposed energy trade
Accelerated intra/inter regional energy transfer
Additional Energy transfer options
Development of enabling framework
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
4/28
Key Energy Sector Challenges in SA
Increasing energy deficits
Single fuel dominance in energy mix
Limited exploitation of renewable energyresources
High dependence on traditional fuels
Rising import dependence Lack of requisite energy infrastructure
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
5/28
Countries Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro
million tons million barrels trillion cubic feet MW
Afghanistan 440 (294.8) NA 15 (360)
25000
(18.9)
Bhutan 2 (1.5) 0 0
30000
(22.7)
Bangladesh 884 (592.3) 12 (1.6) 8 (192) 330(0.3)
India 90085 (60356.9) 5700 (775.2) 39 (936)
150000
(113.7)
Maldives 0 0 0 0
Nepal NA 0 0
42000
(31.8)
Pakistan 17550 (11758.5) 324 (44.1) 33 (792)
45000
(34.1)
Sri Lanka NA 150 (20.4) 0
2000
(1.5)
TOTAL 108961(73003.8) 5906 (803.3) 95 (2280)
294330
(223.0)
SAARC Member Energy Reserves - 2010(Figures in parenthesis are mtoe equivalents)
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
6/28
SAARC Energy Demand Estimates
and Supply Constraints
Projected Energy Demand for 2015 (mtoe) Crude/Petroleum 233 (India 203)
Coal 528 (India 504)
Natural Gas 130 (India 60)
Projected Energy Demand for 2020 (mtoe)
Crude/Petroleum 306 (India 267)
Coal 629 (India 600)
Natural Gas 178 (India 82)
Domestic supply constraints are evident from the
resource development pace and the rate of import
growth apart from environmental concerns with coal
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
7/28
Current Energy Trade
Electricity Trade
Bhutan-India (about 5600 GWh)
India- Nepal (about 600 GWh)Petroleum products
Between India and Bangladesh,
Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka Inter-regional trade limited to
Oil, coal and electricity (limited)
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
8/28
Proposed Intra/Inter Regional Transfer
India - Sri Lanka power transmission India Pakistan power transmission
CASA 1000 Project for Central Asia
AfghanistanPakistan power transmissionAdditional power transmission links Bhutan-
India, India-Nepal, Bangladesh-India
Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline
Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
9/28
ADDITIONAL ENERGY TRANSFER OPTIONS
(clean energy/energy efficiency emphasis)
Regional Power Market Expansion
Regional Refinery and Product
Transport Expansion
Regional LNG Terminal and Gas
Transmission Expansion
Regional Power Plant (s)
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
10/28
Regional Power Market Expansion
Optimal exploitation of energy resources
Reduction in generation reserve requirements
Reduction in overall cost of supply
Improved system reliability, energy security
Incentives to resource rich countries to
accelerate power development
Cross-border connectivity, a prerequisite
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
11/28
IND-BHU Power Interconnections
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
12/28
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
13/28
Proposed IND-SRI HVDC Power Link
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
14/28
SETTING OF CASA 1000 PROJECT
Peshawar
Kabul
Facilities UnderConstruction
500 kV OHL South-NorthFinancing: China Exim bank
Sangtuda 1 HPPFinancing: Russia
Sangtuda 2 HPPFinancing: Iran
220 kV OHL SS Sarban
Tajik/Afghan borderFinancing: ADB/IsDB
Existing Facilities
Toktogul HPPExisting Surplus
Nurek HPPExisting Surplus
Perspective Facilities
220/500 kV Uzbek by passSS Datka (Kyrgyz) SS
Hojent (Tajik)
Cascade of Zarafshan HPPs
(Yavan and Oburdon HPP)Annual generation 1680 GWh
Rogun HPPAnnual generation 13000 GWh
Coal TPPAnnual generation 3900-6400
GWh
500 kV OHL CASA 1000
Nurek HPP Kabul -Peshawar
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
India
China
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
15/28
ADB SA Regional Power Exchange Study
Interconnections Considered
15
No. Interconnection Description Capacity (MW) Cost (USD million)1 India-Bhutan Grid reinforcement to evacuate
power from Punatsangchhu I &II
Total gridreinforcement of 2,100MW
140-160 (2010 estimate)
2 India-Nepal Dhalkebar-Muazaffarpur 400 kVline
1,000 MW 186 (2010 estimate) includinginternal transmission upgrade
3 India- Sri Lanka HVDC line with sub-sea cable 500 MW in the short-term
339 (2006 estimate)
600 (Current)
4 India-Bangladesh HVDC back-to-backasynchronous link
500 MW 192-250 million (2011 estimate)
5 India-Pakistan 220 kV in the short term, 400kV in the long term
250-500 MW 50-150 million (2012 estimate)
6 CASA 1000 and India-Pakistan
interconnection
HVDC and 500 kV HVAC forCASA
1300 MW Approx 1 billion (2011 estimate)
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
16/28
Economic Analysis Methodology: Overview
16
Transmission
ResourcesGenerators
Optimal Mix of Generation using Investment Optimisation with
DC power flow constraints
Performance of Selected Resourcesusing Monte Carlo Simulation with DC-PF. Perform two runs with and without a
transmission line to assess the benefit of the line
Capex/Opex, MW, Location ofResources
Selected Generators given atransmission configuration
Probability distribution ofuncertain parameters
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
17/28
Results: Benefit Estimates
17
Case study Keyassumption
Total and annualisedcost of transmission
USD million
Annual benefit in 2016/17
(USD million)
India-Sri LankaHVDC link
Puttalam Stage 2and 400 MW innew hydro is
added by 2016.But Trinco (1,000MW) coal stationis notconsidered.
Total cost USD 339million (2006 estimate)
Annualized cost USD 50
million pa (2010 estimate)
USD 186 million pa comprising 96million in unserved energy reduction,and 90 million in fuel/capacity
benefits.
India-Bangladesh
HVDC link
Three scenarios
around demandgrowth inBangladesh thatrange between9.000 MW to12,000 MW in2016/17.
Total cost range between
USD 192 million to USD250 million.
Annualised cost of USD25 million pa assumed forcost/benefit analysis.
Annual benefits range between USD
145 million to USD 389 million,depending upon demand-supplyassumptions.
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
18/28
Results: Benefit Estimates
18
Case study Keyassumption
Total and annualisedcost of transmission
USD million
Annual benefit in 2016/17(USD million)
India-Bhutan gridreinforcement
Puntsanchhu I &II (2100 MW)
Total cost USD 140-160million.
Annualized cost USD 18-20 million pa.
Up to USD 1,954 million pa including
USD 350 million in opex benefit
andUSD 1,604 million in unservedenergy reduction benefit
Nepal-Bihar 400kV link
Two scenarios:
Surplus state:(2000MWadded)
Deficit state:650 MW delayed
Total cost USD 63 million.
Annualized cost USD 8million pa
(a) Surplus state benefit of USD105 million pa(71 million inunserved energy reduction and
34 million in opex benefits)
(b) Deficit state benefit of USD 215million (173 million in unservedenergy reduction and 42 millionin opex benefits)
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
19/28
Detailed Results: IND-SRI
19
Distribution of benefits
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
123
45
67
89
111
133
155
177
199
221
243
265
287
309
331
353
375
397
419
441
463
485
Annu
alBenefitinUSD
million
Monte Carlo Samples 1-500
The link is likely to be beneficial with USD
186 million in annual benefit on average.
This is likely to yield a benefit to cost ratioof over 3
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
20/28
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0%
5%
9%
14%
19%
23%
28%
32%
37%
42%
46%
51%
55%
60%
65%
69%
74%
78%
83%
88%
92%
97%F
uel
andnon-fuelope
ratingcost
benefits(USDm
illion)
Probability
Fuel Cost Savings Non-fuel Cost Savings
Detailed Results: India-Bhutan
20
Distribution of fuel & opex benefits
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
21/28
India-Pakistan Link (500 MW)
21
Potentially very high benefits due to a combination of USE and fuel costsavings
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
22/28
Estimates of Fuel Cost Savings through
Cross- Border Interconnection
Annual fuel cost savings in 2016/17 in 2011 dollars:
India Bhutan: USD 336 million
India Nepal: USD 38 million
India Sri Lanka: USD 56 million
India Bangladesh: USD 225 million
India Pakistan: USD 122 million (250 MW transfer)22
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
23/28
India would be the biggest beneficiary with a significant
reduction in peaking gas/liquid based power generation
as well as reduction of generation from less efficient
and expensive coal-fired power stations
Collective fuel cost savings in India from coal-based
generation alone (with all interconnection cases) is closeto USD 300 million through displacement of 10,000 GWh
of coal-based generation in 2016/17
Thermal Power Generation Displacement
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
24/28
The average emission intensity of less efficient coal plants in Indiais estimated at 1.35 tonne of CO2 per MWh
The overall emissions reduction in India from a reduction in coal-
based generation would be over 13 million tonne ofCO2 in 2016/17
If the value of carbon credits is considered at USD 15 per
tonne, the carbon reduction benefits would also be close to USD
200 million
The longer term savings through import of 40,000 GWh of hydro
from Bhutan alone would be 3-4 times as high
24
Displacement of Thermal Generation
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
25/28
Apart from India, thermal generation reduction can also save
significant costs in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka
The fuel cost reduction potential in Pakistan is particularlynoteworthy because of a low efficiency plant stock andhigh fuel
cost (e.g., USD 11 per GJ for gas) fuel cost savings exceeding USD
100 million dollar is estimated in Pakistan
The following slide provides details on fuel cost savings POTENTIAL
from 8 major thermal power stations in Pakistan
25
Displacement of Thermal Generation .
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
26/28
Displacement of thermal generation (Pakistan)
26
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
27/28
Accelerated expansion of electricity trade in
South Asia - a key recommendation of ADBs
SAARC Regional Energy Trade Study
Related economic analysis carried out so far
establishes economic feasibility of all proposed
interconnections
Fuel savings from thermal energy displacement
resulting mainly from expanded hydropower
utilization has strong clean energy impact
CONCLUDING REMARKS
-
7/31/2019 P N Fernando - Clean Energy Impact of South Asia Cross Border Power Trade
28/28
THANK YOU
VERY MUCH !