Ozone National Air Quality Standard Review WESTAR Fall Business Meeting Boise, Idaho September 2006.
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Transcript of Ozone National Air Quality Standard Review WESTAR Fall Business Meeting Boise, Idaho September 2006.
Ozone National Air Quality Standard Review
WESTAR Fall Business Meeting
Boise, Idaho
September 2006
Ozone NAAQS Review - History Current review process started in 2005 Comprehensive assessment of the latest scientific
and technical information Criteria Document published in August 2005 EPA staff assessment in November 2005 – 1st Draft
Staff Paper Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC)
reviewed EPA released Final Criteria Document March 2006
EPA released 2nd Draft Staff Paper July 18, 2006 Comments received until September 18,
2006 EPA expects to issue Final Staff Paper
sometime this fall (perhaps October)
EPA Administrator will consider: Final Staff Paper CASAC Comments Public Comments Final Decision to revise or retain the ozone
standard is expected by March 28, 2007 Final Action is expected by Dec. 19, 2007
Options from the EPA 2nd Draft Staff Paper
Options from 2nd Draft Staff paper Primary Standard Secondary Standard Current 8-hr Ozone Standard 0.080 ppm based on the 3-year
average of the 4th highest concentration recorded at each monitor.
Same as Primary
EPA Staff Paper option #1
Same as current standard Same as current standard
EPA Staff Paper option #2 Revise to 0.070 ppm based on the three year average of the 4th highest concentration recorded at each monitor.
3-month, 12-hr SUM061 Range (15-38 ppm-hr), or W1262
Range (13-35 ppm-hr)
Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee Met August 24 – 25, 2006 and recommended
lowering the standard Current 8 hour O3 standard = 0.08 parts per
million (ppm) CASAC, no more than 0.070 ppm Should consider 0.055 or 0.060
Clean Air Science Advisory Committee The current standard is not protective EPA should eliminate the rounding
convention The upper end should be 0.070 ppm The risk assessment should include all
ozone, man made and natural
Ozone Values in Western National ParksWestern National Parks
4th Highest 8-Hour Maximum Value 1994-2004
0.050
0.060
0.070
0.080
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
PP
M
Canyonlands, Utah Craters of the Moon, Idaho Death Valley, Calif.
Great Basin, Nevada Grand Canyon, Arizona Rocky Mountain, Colorado
Saguaro, Arizona Yellowstone, Wyoming NAAQS Standard = 0.070 ppm
NAAQS = 0.070 ppm
Are the WRAP CMAQ model results a useful guide for rural ozone analysis? Is the model providing good estimates of hourly ozone production and
depletion?
Compare observed ozone at the 6 monitors in the domain with model estimates
Statistical metrics Mean normalized bias Mean normalized error
Time series charts
Tools used GIS Perl programming Additional scripts from the RMC HYSPLIT
Evaluation Metrics
Mean Normalized Bias (MNB): A value of zero would indicate that the model over predictions and model under predictions exactly cancel each other out.
Mean Normalized Gross Error (MNGE): A value of zero would indicate that the model exactly matches the observed values at all points in space/time.
Previous guidance in the modeling community set a goal of: MNB <= 15% and MNGE of <= 25%. This was based on the experience of actual model performance over the years.
Results
Goal <= 15% <= 25%
Monitor MNB MNGE
Rocky Mountain N.P. 4% 16%
Mesa Verde N.P. 3% 14%
Centennial, WY -4% 10%
Pinedale, WY -2% 13%
Gothic, CO 7% 17%
Canyonlands N.P. -3% 12%
Modeling ResultsTime Series Charts
Canyonlands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 53 105 157 209 261 313 365 417 469 521 573 625 677 729 781 833 885 937 989 1041 1093 1145 1197 1249 1301 1353
Hour
PP
B Obs
Model
Modeling ResultsJuly 12-14, 2002
Mesa Verde
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69
Hour
PP
B ObsModel