Issues on Ozone Planning in the Western United States Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for...
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![Page 1: Issues on Ozone Planning in the Western United States Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for the Fall Business Meeting, Tempe, AZ October 31, 2011.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddd5503460f94ad5802/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Issues on Ozone Planning in the Western United States
Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for the Fall Business Meeting, Tempe, AZ
October 31, 2011
![Page 2: Issues on Ozone Planning in the Western United States Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for the Fall Business Meeting, Tempe, AZ October 31, 2011.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddd5503460f94ad5802/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Ozone – 0.075 ppm, 3/12/08What We Know About the Areas Affected*
• 52 areas are currently estimated to exceed the 0.075 ppm, 43 of which would be “marginal”
• 22 areas are in the WEST• 17 areas are in CA (10 “marginal” and 7 either
“moderate” or higher)• 4 areas in WY, NV, AZ, CO “marginal” plus UT
*Based on 9/22/2011 Gina McCarthy Memo to Air Division Directors and State Updates
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What We Think We Know About Timing
• 120-Day Letters – Fall of 2011• Classification Rule – Late 2011• Designations/Classifications by June 2012*• Implementation Rule Proposal – Spring 2012• Implementation Rule Final – End of 2012• Proposed Ozone NAAQS October 2013• Final Ozone NAAQS July 2014• Show Attainment of 2008 Std. by June 2015 for Marginal Areas
*Pending legal challenges
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What We Know About Marginal Ozone Nonattainment SIP Requirements
• Reasonably Available Control Technology 172(c)(1)
• Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance for MSAs Greater Than 200,000 182(a)(2)(B)
• Emission Inventories 172(c)(3), 182(a)(1)
• New Source Review Requirements for Nonattainment Areas 172(c)(4) and (5), 182(a)(2)(C)
• Infrastructure SIP 172(c)(7)
• Periodic Inventories Every Three Years 182(a)(3)(A)
• Emission Statements 182(a)(3)(B)
• VOC Offset Ratio 1.1 to 1 182(a)(4)
![Page 5: Issues on Ozone Planning in the Western United States Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for the Fall Business Meeting, Tempe, AZ October 31, 2011.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddd5503460f94ad5802/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Infrastructure SIPs for 2008 Ozone
• Were due 3/12/11 and have become important• Section 110(a)(1) requires states to submit new SIPs
for the implementation, maintenance, and enforcement of new NAAQS
• Section 110(a)(2) lists the elements new SIPs must contain
• Section 110(a)(2)(D)(i) addresses interstate transport (difficult for individual states to do)
• All states, regardless of attainment status, do 110(a)(1) & (2) SIPs
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• Met this requirement for the 1997 ozone standard by relying on CAIR modeling.
• Regional Office advice is to sit tight and wait for CSAPR II to address this. CSAPR I (East Coast) addresses transport for 1997 standard.
• Contribution determination is broken down into two parts.– 1) threshold for contribution (this was 1% in CSAPR I)– 2) then after “contribution significance” determination –
address controls based on air quality and cost of control
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What We Don’t Know….
• Don’t have a schedule for when the infrastructure SIPs are due.
• Don’t have a regional modeling demonstration that shows us if we have transport issues and no schedule for CSAPR II.
• Don’t have an implementation rule for 2008 ozone.
• Do have a lot of concern about how this will unfold in the West.
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Western Regional Technical Analyses of Ozone Background and Source Attribution
Regional Products to assist States with Ozone Planning
October 31, 2011
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3-year Average 4th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value by County2008-2010
AQS Federal Reference Method data from the monitoring site in each County with the highest Ozone values
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4th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value by County for 2011(available as of 10/11/2011)
AQS Federal Reference Method data from the monitoring site in each County with the highest Ozone values
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WestJumpAQMS Background Ozone and Source Apportionment(12-km grid cell is ~55 square miles and a 4-km grid cell is ~6 square miles)
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CAMx Particulate Source Apportionment Technology
(gridded emissions/met in photochemical model with virtual tags of source categories and regions)
CMAQ Ozone Transport“Zero-Out” Sensitivity Study
Ozone Source Apportionment
Monthly Mean Results
Tong, D. Q. and Mauzerall, D. L.
Summertime State-Level Source-Receptor Relationships between Nitrogen Oxides Emissions and Surface Ozone Concentrations over the Continental United States.
Environmental Science & Technology, Volume 42, Number 21, 2008.
WRAP regional haze CAMx PSAT modeling, WRAP TSS, 2007
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Assessment of Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone
• Develops best available regional fire emissions inventory for air quality planning
• Provides analytical results and technical tools for Federal Land Managers (FLM) to participate more fully in ozone air quality planning efforts
• Improves understanding of Ozone exceptional events
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2011 Harvard Study on Policy Relevant Background OzonePollution Influence from Sources Outside the United States
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4-km Impact Assessment Domains (IAD) to model
one-way air quality impacts using CAMx/CMAQ
photochemical grid modeling
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![Page 17: Issues on Ozone Planning in the Western United States Prepared by the WESTAR Planning Committee for the Fall Business Meeting, Tempe, AZ October 31, 2011.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddd5503460f94ad5802/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
4-km Detailed Source Apportionment
Domains (DSAD - solid line boxes) to model two-way air quality
effects using CAMx/CMAQ
photochemical grid modeling
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