Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of...

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Communicable disease challenges Prevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Infectious Disease Threats in the 21st Century: Prevention, Control, and Emergency Response Tom´ as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH Health Ocer, City & County of San Francisco Director, Population Health Division San Francisco Department of Public Health Adjunct Faculty, Division of Epidemiology UC Berkeley School of Public Health May 17, 2013 Tom´ as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health Ocer Infectious Disease Threats in the 21st Century Communicable disease challenges Prevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Overview 1 Communicable disease challenges 2 Prevention and control concepts 3 Prevention and control responses Tom´ as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health Ocer Infectious Disease Threats in the 21st Century

Transcript of Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of...

Page 1: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

InfectiousDisease

Threatsin

the21st

Century:

Prevention,Control,andEmergency

Response

Tom

asJ.

Aragon

,MD,DrPH

HealthOfficer,City&

Cou

nty

ofSan

Francisco

Director,Pop

ulation

HealthDivision

San

FranciscoDepartm

entof

Public

Health

Adjunct

Faculty,Divisionof

Epidem

iology

UCBerkeleySchool

ofPublic

Health

May

17,20

13

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Overview

1Com

municable

disease

challenges

2Prevention

andcontrol

concepts

3Prevention

andcontrol

respon

ses

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Page 2: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Recentandongoingchallenges

Meningo

coccal

disease

inMSM

H7N

9Avian

Influenza

Ain

China

Typhoidcase

atSFRestaurant

Novel

coronavirus(nCoV

)in

Middle

East

Human

Immunodeficiency

Virus(H

IV)

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Meningo

coccal

disease

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Page 3: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Human

Avian

Influenza

A(H

7N9)

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

“TyphoidMary”

(MaryMallon)

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Page 4: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Human

SARSCoronavirus,SARSoutbreak,2003

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Human

Immunodeficiency

Virus(H

IV)

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Page 5: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Chainmodelof

infectiousdiseases

Source:

Epidem

iologic

MethodsfortheStudyofInfectiousDiseases,

Oxford

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Naturalhistory

ofinfectionandinfectiousness

When

thelatentperiodislongerthan

theincubationperiod,an

infected

personbecom

esinfectiousaftersymptom

onset.

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Page 6: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Convergence

modelforhuman-m

icrobeinteraction

Institute

ofMedicine.

Microbialthreats

tohealth:Emergence,Detection,and

Response.National

Academ

yPress,2003

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Transm

ission

dynam

ics

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Page 7: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Transm

ission

containment

Con

trol

strategies

1Reduce

contact

rate

(c)

2Reduce

fraction

ofpop

ulation

that

isinfectious(P

)

3Reduce

biologicalinfectiousness(affects

p)

4Reduce

biologicalsusceptibility

(affects

p)

5Interrupttransm

ission

(physical,chem

ical)(affects

p)

6Reduce

fraction

ofpop

ulation

that

issusceptible

(x)

Con

trol

measures...

areintervention

sdesigned

toaddress

control

strategies.Always

consider

mutliple

perspectives:

host,agent,infectioussources,and

environment(physical,social,econ

omic,political,etc.)

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Example:Response

tohuman

pandem

icinfluenza

1Surveillance

andepidem

iology

2Lab

oratorydiagn

ostics

3Transm

ission

containment

Com

munitymitigationmeasures

Isolation(ofcases)

Quaran

tine(ofexposed)

Social

distancing

Sheltering(ofnon-exp

osed)

Vaccinedistribution

anduse

Antiviraldrugdistribution

anduse

4Infectioncontrol

andclinical

guidelines

5Environmentalandoccupational

health

6Medical

&mentalhealthcare,andsurgecapacity

7Public

healthcommunications(m

edia,public,clinicians,

facilities)

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century

Page 8: Overview - SFDPHPrevention and control concepts Prevention and control responses Chain model of infectious diseases Tom´as J. Arag´on, MD, DrPH, Health O Source: Epidemiologic Methods

Communicable

disease

challenges

Preventionandcontrolconcepts

Preventionandcontrolresp

onses

Summaryof

talk

Com

municable

diseaechallenges

Meningo

coccal

disease

inMSM

H7N

9Avian

Influenza

Ain

China

Typhoidcase

atSFRestaurant

Novel

coronavirus(nCoV

)in

Middle

East

Human

Immunodeficiency

Virus(H

IV)

Con

cepts

forprevention

andcontrol

Transm

ission

mechanisms

Transm

ission

dynam

ics

Transm

ission

containment

TomasJ.Aragon,MD,DrP

H,HealthOfficer

InfectiousDisease

Threats

inthe21st

Century