OVERVIEW on CLIMATE &

TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES

“Enhancing Communities Capacities to Confront

Extreme Geo-Meteorological Events at the Core of

Climate Change”

Bulwagang Juan Luna, UP, Baguio City

23 November 2009

RUSY G. ABASTILLASClimatology and Agrometeorology Division

DOST-PAGASA

Atmospheric

Geophysical

Services

Administration

Philippine

Astronomical

The nation’s

meteorological service

and public weather

service provider

58 Synoptic Stations

23 Agromet Stations

4 Radiosonde Stns.

5 Meteorological

Satellite Receiving

Facilities

10 Doppler radars

(2 years from now)

NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS

…Characterized by humid equatorial

or tropical maritime

The Philippine Climate

Gen San

DipologMean annual rr=2379.3

Infanta =3967.3

Hinatuan =4168.3

Type 1 Climate:

Two pronounced seasons: dry from

November to April, wet during the rest

of the year.Monthly Rainfall of Port Area, Manila (Type I)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Rainf

all (m

m)

Climate Type I

Type 2 Climate:

No dry season with a pronounced

maximum rainfall from November to

January.Monthly Rainfall of Legaspi City (Type II)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Climate Type II

Type 3 Climate:

Seasons not very pronounced,

relatively dry from November to April

and wet during the rest of the year.Monthly Rainfall of Tuguegarao, Cag. (Type III)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Climate Type III

Type 4 Climate:

Rainfall more or less evenly

distributed throughout the year.

Monthly Rainfall of Tagbilaran City, Bohol (Type IV)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Rainf

all (m

m)

Climate Type IV

Baguio City

Monthly Normal Rainfall of Baguio City (1971-2000)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Ra

infa

ll in

mm

Normal Temperature (Maximum, Minimum,Mean) of

Baguio City (1971-2000)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Rain

fall in

mm

TMax TMin TMean

Annual mean temperature of Baguio City (1971-2005)

y = 0.0071x + 19.358

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Te

mp

in

°C

annual mean temp Linear (annual mean temp)

• geography and topography – large hilly terrain, and coastal plains

Climatic controls that influence the climate in the Philippines

• semi-permanent lows and highs – produces airstreams /ocean currents

• air streams - southwesterlies (SW monsoon)- Apr-Sep

- northeasterlies (NE monsoon) –Oct- Mar

- easterlies (North Pacific trades) – transition period

• ocean currents = SST average 27.4C Phil. Sea

• linear systems - ITCZ- cold front- easterly waves

• tropical cyclones

• ENSO phenomenon• Devastating impacts could be mitigated

through clear understanding of the

complex mechanisms and dev’t of

effective forecast tools.

• influenced by complex

interactions

• threatened by ECEs

• rainfall variability

• various sectors affected

SOUTHWEST

MONSOON

(HABAGAT)

NORTHEAST

MONSOON

(AMIHAN)

L

L L

L

INTERTROPICAL

CONVERGENCE

ZONE (ITCZ)

TROPICAL

CYCLONE

Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines

ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END)

AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING

SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

LL

LL

ITCZ

ITCZ

ITCZ

ITCZ

Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the PhilippinesAVERAGE RAINFALL

APRIL-SEPTEMBER

(1951-2000)

AVERAGE RAINFALL

OCTOBER-MARCH

(1951-2000)First

semestral

Second

semestral

Cold air from

Siberia

Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines

Period: 1948-2005

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Northern Luzon is most

frequently hit by tropical

cyclones followed by

Catanduanes and Northern

Samar and least in the

Mindanao area.

Monthly Average Frequency of Tropical Cyclone

in the PAR

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D

M o n t h

No

. o

f T

rop

ica

l C

yc

lon

es

Climate Variability /ENSO

IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

Legend:

Severe drought impacts

Drought impacts with major losses

Moderate drought impacts

Near normal to above normal condition

Way above normal condition

Potential for flood damage

Severe flood damage

RED colored years are EL NINOyears, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years

TRENDS…

Temperature

Rainfall

Tropical Cyclones

An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006

Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006

Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures

almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures

Significant

increase in the

frequency of

hot days

Significant

increase in the

frequency of

warm nights

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Warm nights).

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days).

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines* Period: 1961 – 2003

*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights.

Significant

decrease in

the number

of cold days

Significant decrease in the number of cool nights

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines* Period: 1961 – 2003

*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

• Significant decrease in the number of cold days and cool nights.

(Cool days). (Cold nights).

Trend in Annual Total

Rainfall* (1961 – 2003)

• Decreases in the top

northern part of

Luzon and Southern

Luzon.

• Increases in the Bicol

Region (except Daet),

Visayas and

Mindanao

• Findings not

statistically

significant

Total

Annual

Rainfall

*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean

y = -0.0104x + 19.755

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Year

Freq

uen

cy o

f tr

op

ical

Cyclo

nes

Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)

TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

0

50

100

150

200

250

Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Nu

mb

er 51-80

61-90

71-00

LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO

1951-8

0

1961-9

0

1971-0

0

Year Normal Years

La Niña

Years

El Niño

Years

JFM (QTR1) 1.21 1.24 0.38

AMJ (QTR 2) 3.29 2.87 2.38

JAS (QTR3) 9.91 8.86 8.85

OND (QTR4) 6.55 6.79 4.56

Total 20.96 19.76 16.17

Mean Number of Tropical Cyclones during Normal, El Niño and La

Niña Years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

JFM (QTR1) AMJ (QTR 2) JAS (QTR3) OND (QTR4)

TC

Fre

qu

en

cy

Normal Years La Niña Years El Niño Years

Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with

the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

NAIA 429PortArea 425

Science Garden 430Sangley Point 428

Vigan 222Tuguegaro 233Baguio City 328

Dagupan 325Iba, Zambales 324Cubi Pt,Subic 426

Ambulong 432Calapan 431

Puerto Princesa 618Cuyo 630

Coron 526

Itbayat 132Basco Synop 135

Calayan 133Aparri 232

Cabanatuan 330Casiguran 336

Alabat 435Infanta 434

Romblon 536

Masbate 543Daet 440

Legaspi 444Virac Synop 446Virac Radar 447Roxas City 538

Iloilo 637

Catarman 546Catbalogan 548

Tacloban City 550Dumaguete 642

Mactan 646Maasin 648

Surigao City 653Hinatuan 755

Dipolog 741Lumbia 747

Cagayan De Oro 748Malaybalay 751

Davao 753Zamboanga 836

Station Names

% of Rainfall

% Annual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems

HIGHLIGHTS:

The Philippines is highly vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones: flooding, high winds, storm surges and landslides.

Increasing trend in annual mean temperature

No trend in rainfall pattern

No trend in the total number of annual tropical cyclones

RECENT DEVASTATING TROPICAL

CYCLONES

1. Ondoy (Ketsana)

2. Pepeng (Parma)

P A R LINE

P A R LINE

P

A

R

L

I

N

E

P

A

R

L

I

N

E

On September 26, shortly before noon in (around 0400 UTC), Ketsana made its landfallat the border of Aurora and Quezon provinces, packed with maximum winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 100 km/h.

TS Ondoy brought the worst rainfall to Metro Manila among recorded typhoons since

the start of rainfall record keeping , producing only moderate winds but hours of

extremely heavy rains. Metro Manila experienced the highest rainfall in history that

brought heavy flooding.

PAGASA documented a record-high amount of rainfall in 24 hours at 455 mm

(17.9 in) recorded during September 26). And also, the amount of rainfall recorded

for six hours, which was 341.3 mm (13.44 in), was comparable to the 24 hour rainfall

in 1967.

SCIENCE GARDEN Greatest Daily RR = 334.5 mm ( June 7, 1967).

24-Hr Rainfall at Selected Stations

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

IBA SUBIC BAY SCIENCE

GARDEN

TANAY

Station Name

Rain

fall A

mt

in m

m.

24-Hr Rainfall during the Passage of TS “Ondoy”

(Sept. 24-27, 2009)

STATION NAME 24 25 26 27

IBA 15.0 8.2 103.8 40.0

PORT AREA 10.4 41.3 258.5 7.0

SUBIC BAY 6.0 50.4 127.7 55.0

SANGLEY POINT 6.0 61.4 163.0 7.0

SCIENCE GARDEN 1.1 94.0 455.0 6.0

AMBULONG T 49.5 234.5 8.0

TANAY 0.0 141.4 331.8 13.0

24-hr RR vs Normal RR for Sept. 26, 2009 at Selected

Stations affected by TS "Ondoy"

0.0100.0

200.0300.0

400.0500.0

600.0

IBA PORT AREA SCIENCE

GARDEN

SANGLEY

POINT

AMBULONG

Stations

Rain

fall

in

mm

24-hr RR Normal Sept

Ondoy’s Fury

“Ondoy’s Fury”

TY PEPENG (Parma) Sept.30-Oct.10

Rainfall Associated w/ TC Passage (Pepeng)

Cumulative Rainfall (Oct. 1- 10, 2009) vs October Normal

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

ITBAYAT

BASCO

VIGAN

LAOAG

APARRI

TUGUEGARAO

ECHAGUEIB

A

DAGUPANBSU

BAGUIO

MUÑOZ

CABANATUAN

Stations

RR

in m

m.

TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT

Cumulative RR (Oct. 1-10, 2009) vs. October Normal RR

STATIONS TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT Highest Day

ITBAYAT 303.6 478.7 678.2 8-Jun-1981 106.1 6-Oct-09

BASCO 281.3 429.2 616.4 27-Oct-1991 95.0 7-Oct-09

VIGAN 1005.3 154.3 594.1 18-Jul-1920 417.3 4-Oct-09

LAOAG 843.4 143.6 564.2 4-Sep-1913 402.6 4-Oct-09

APARRI 338.6 359.5 453.1 22-Nov-1973 154.5 3-Oct-09

TUGUEGARAO 508.5 324.4 349.7 22-Nov-1973 188.7 3-Oct-09

ECHAGUE 238.2 239.6 111.9 8-Oct-09

IBA 236.7 273.7 623.7 21-Sep-1935 99.8 3-Oct-09

DAGUPAN 759.7 200.6 722.6 27-May-2003 443.5 8-Oct-09

BSU 2169.2 290.2 761.8 8-Oct-09

BAGUIO 1876.5 461.8 1085.8 4-Jul-2001 685.0 8-Oct-09

MUÑOZ 302.1 201.7 208.0 8-Oct-09

CABANATUAN 267.5 207.3 406.1 28-Jul-1952 96.2 8-Oct-09

Extreme Rainfall (24-hr)

T

Y

P

e

p

e

n

g

Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Decadal Highest 24-hr

ITBAYAT 0.2 8.0 67.9 25.2 16.1 106.1 12.0 48.0 19.3 0.8 303.6 106.1

BASCO 0.0 14.2 31.6 0.8 8.7 69.6 95.0 50.2 11.0 0.2 281.3 95.0

VIGAN 0.0 31.7 168.9 417.3 126.2 75.4 68.6 111.8 5.4 0.0 1005.3 417.3

LAOAG CITY 0.0 10.7 90.6 402.6 197.3 47.5 60.0 33.0 1.7 0.0 843.4 402.6

APARRI 0.0 34.0 154.5 0.0 8.0 35.1 82.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 338.6 154.5

TUGUEGARAO 0.0 90.3 188.7 0.0 4.8 23.5 129.7 71.5 0.0 0.0 508.5 188.7

ECHAGUE 0.0 29.6 0.0 0.1 2.6 94.0 111.9 0.0 238.2 111.9

IBA T 52.6 99.8 0.0 0.2 3.4 19.7 47.4 13.6 0.0 236.7 99.8

DAGUPAN CITY T 25.5 159.5 8.0 T 36.2 52.0 443.5 35.0 0.0 759.7 443.5

BSU 2.1 23.7 410.7 72.9 2.2 471.8 346.9 761.8 77.1 2169.2 761.8

BAGUIO CITY 0.4 20.0 531.0 38.2 4.6 260.0 276.0 685.0 61.3 0.0 1876.5 685.0

MUÑOZ 0.2 18.5 0.0 0.5 10.7 63.8 208.0 0.4 0.0 302.1 208.0

CABANATUAN CITY 20.0 24.8 65.4 0.0 2.3 2.0 54.8 96.2 2.0 0.0 267.5 96.2

Daily RR at Selected Stations in Luzon (Oct. 1-10, 2009)

“Pepeng’s Fury”

Thank

You!!!