Overview of the Orbital Debris Problem - NASALEO Env Projection – the Best Case Scenario (No New...
Transcript of Overview of the Orbital Debris Problem - NASALEO Env Projection – the Best Case Scenario (No New...
National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
Overview of the Orbital Debris Problem
J.-C. Liou, PhD
Chief ScientistNASA Orbital Debris Program Office
Small Satellite Conference, Logan, Utah, 10 August 2015
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150019428 2020-02-25T15:33:44+00:00Z
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Outline
• An Overview of the Orbital Debris Environment– Historical and current environment– Mitigation and remediation
• The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office and Highlights of Its Recent Activities– Roles and responsibilities– Recent activities
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What is Orbital Debris?
• Orbital debris is any human-made object in orbit about the Earth that no longer serves any useful purpose
10 m 100 m 10 cm 1 m 10 m1 mm 1 cmSize (diameter)
R/Bs, S/C
Breakup Fragments
Mission-related Debris
Al2O3 (slag)Al2O3
Meteoroids
NaK
Paint Flakes MLI Pieces
Orb
ital D
ebris
Objects in the Near-Earth Environment
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How Much Junk is Currently up There?
• Due to high impact speeds in space (~10 km/s in LEO), even sub-millimeter debris pose a realistic threat to human spaceflight and robotic missions 7 km/sec = 25,200 km/hr; 10 km/sec = 36,000 km/hr 1-cm Al sphere @ 10 km/s = 200 kg safe @ 90 mph 5-mm Al sphere @ 7 km/sec could penetrate a 2.54 cm thick Al wall
• Total mass: ~6300 tons LEO-to-GEO (~2700 tons in LEO)
Softball size or larger (≥10 cm): ~23,000(tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, SSN)
Marble size or larger (≥1 cm): ~500,000
Dot or larger (≥1 mm): >100,000,000(a grain of salt)
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The Near-Earth Environment (1957-2014)
• Only objects in the U.S. satellite catalog (~10 cm and larger) are shown• Sizes of the dots are not to scale
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Growth of the Cataloged Populations
FY-1C ASAT Test
Iridium-Cosmos
~1100 are operational
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
100001100012000130001400015000160001700018000
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Num
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Monthly Effective Number of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type
Total Objects
Fragmentation Debris
Spacecraft
Mission-related Debris
Rocket Bodies
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Mass in Space
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Monthly Mass of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type
Total Objects
Spacecraft
Rocket Bodies
Fragmentation Debris
Mission-related Debris
No sign of slowing down!
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Threat from Orbital Debris
• The threat from orbital debris is real– The gravity-gradient boom of an operational French satellite (CERISE)
was cut in half by a tracked debris in 1996.– The fully operational Iridium 33 was destroyed by a retired Russian
satellite Cosmos 2251 in 2009.– Near the end of the Space Shuttle Program, the Loss of Crew and
Vehicle risks from MMOD impact damage were in the range of 1 in 250 to 1 in 300 per mission (OD to MM ~ 2:1 at ISS altitude).
– The ISS conducted 5 collision avoidance maneuvers (DAMs) against tracked debris in 2014; 3 DAMs and 1 shelter-in-Soyuz so far in 2015.
– Impacts by small, untracked debris could be responsible for many satellite anomalies.• A 17-cm Russian retro reflector, Ball Lens In The Space (BLITS), was damaged
and shed a piece of trackable debris in January 2013.
BLITS CERISE
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LEO Env Projection – the Best Case Scenario(No New Launches Beyond 1/1/2006)
• Collision fragments replace other decaying debris through the next 50 years, keeping the total population approximately constant
• Beyond 2055, the rate of decaying debris decreases, leading to a net increase in the overall satellite population due to collisions
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Intacts + mission related debris
Explosion fragments
Collision fragments
(Liou and Johnson, Science, 2006)
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A Realistic Assessment of LEO Environment
• In reality, the situation will be worse than the “no new launches” scenario because global space activities will continue.
• Post-mission disposal (such as a 25-year decay rule) will help, but will be insufficient to prevent the self-generating phenomenon from happening.
• To preserve the near-Earth space for future generations, remediation measures, such as Active Debris Removal (ADR), must be considered.
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Projected LEO Population Growth
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Year
Reg launches + 0% PMD
Reg launches + 10% PMD
Reg launches + 50% PMD
Reg launches + 75% PMD
Reg launches + 95% PMD
LEGEND Simulations* (averages of 100 Monte Carlo runs per scenario)
(*assuming no future explosion)
Historical environment: 1957-2011
Future projection: 2012-2212
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Orbital Debris Environment Management
• “Prevention is better than cure”– (Prov.) It is better to try to keep a bad thing from happening than it is to
fix the bad thing once it has happened
• “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure”– (Prov.) It is better/cheaper to stop something bad happening than it is
to deal with it after it has happened
• Orbital Debris Mitigation = Prevention• Orbital Debris Remediation = Cure
• The global space community must comply with existing mitigation guidelines/requirements and develop long-term remediation strategies to preserve the near-Earth space environment for future generations
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The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office
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NASA’s Orbital Debris Research Program
• The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is the only organization in the US Government conducting a full range of research on orbital debris
– This unique NASA capability was established at JSC in 1979 (D. Kessler, B. Cour-Palais, H. Zook, etc.)
– ODPO’s roles and responsibilities are defined in NPD8700.1 and NPR 8715.6A
– ODPO is currently funded through HQ/OSMA
• Provide technical and policy level support to NASA HQ, OSTP, other U.S. Government agencies and the commercial sector
• ODPO represents the U.S. Government in international fora, including the United Nations and the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC)
• Recognized as world leader in environment definition and modeling and in mitigation policy development
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End-to-End Orbital Debris Activities at ODPO
MeasurementsRadar
OpticalIn-situ
Laboratory
ModelingBreakup
EngineeringEvolutionary
Reentry
Environment ManagementMitigation
RemediationPolicy
Mission Compliance
Risk AssessmentSpace assets
(ISS, Orion, etc)Reentry
CoordinationU.S. Government
IADCUnited Nations
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TotalIntacts + mission related debris
Explosion fragmentsCollision fragments
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NASA Mission Requirements on Orbital Debris
• NASA was the first organization to lead the development of orbital debris mitigation measures in the 1990s.
• NASA and DoD led the effort to establish the 2001 U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices.– The U.S. National Space Policy of 2006 and 2010 directs agencies
and departments to implement the Standard Practices.
• U.S. has endorsed the United Nations’ Orbital Debris Mitigation Guidelines.
• In compliance with the above, NASA has establishedNPR 8715.6A, NASA Procedural Requirements for Limiting Orbital Debris, and NS 8719.14, Process for Limiting Orbital Debris for NASA missions.– Formal Orbital Debris Assessment Reports (ODARs) are due to
NASA HQ in conjunction with the PDR and CDR milestones.
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Lab-based Satellite Impact Experiments
• The “DebriSat” project is a collaboration among NASA, the U.S. Air Force, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida for laboratory-based hypervelocity impact experiments on a representative, modern LEO satellite and an upper stage mockup.
• The objective is to characterize the physical properties of impact fragments to improve satellite breakup models and space situational awareness.
X-band Antenna
50 cm
30 cm
Spectrometer
S-band Antenna
UHF/VHF Antenna
Divert Thruster
Optical Imager
Sun Sensor
Multi-Layer Insulation
Composite Body Panels
Deployable Solar Panels
Al alloy strap-on tanks (one on each side)
Stainless steel fuel lines
Al alloy tank
Delta-II Ti roll control thruster assembly
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Hypervelocity Impact Sequences
598 g projectile @ 6.9 km/sec
• Hypervelocity impacts of the two targets were successfully carried out at the Arnold Engineering Development Complex in April 2014.
• Fragment processing and measurements are currently underway.
570 g projectile @ 6.8 km/sec
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Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT)
• NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and the Air Force Research Laboratory are building a new 1.3-m debris telescope to be deployed on Ascension Island.– Completed construction and
acquired first light in June 2015.
– Full operations will start in 2016.
– Telescope autonomously collects data; remotely managed from NASA JSC.
• The low latitude of the site will permit observations of low inclination debris at all altitudes.– Debris as small as 13 cm (0.175
albedo) in GEO should be detectable.
AscensionIsland
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In-Situ Measurements of Small Debris
• NASA, the U.S. Naval Academy, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Virginia Tech, and the University of Kent (Great Britain) are developing new technologies for in-situ measurements of small debris from space.
• A new system, Debris Resistive/Acoustic Grid Orbital Navy-NASA Sensor (DRAGONS), has been approved by the International Space Station (ISS) Program for a February 2017 deployment on the ISS.
• DRAGONS combines several particle impact detection principles to measure time, location, speed, direction, energy, and the size of each impacting particle to improve the environment definition for the millimeter and smaller debris population..
Planned locationfor DRAGONS
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Questions?