Overview of the Eskom and South African new build … DIGITAL VGB PowerTech - Autorenexemplar - 2015...

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VGB PowerTech - Autorenexemplar - © 2015 44 New Eskom power plants VGB PowerTech 1/2 l 2016 Authors Kurzfassung Überblick zum Kraftwerksneubauprogramm von ESKOM in Südafrika Eskom ist Südafrikas Haupstromversorger und ein Unternehmen im Eigentum des Südafri- kanischen Staates. Eskom erzeugt rund 95 % des in Südafrika und rund 45 % des in Afrika insgesamt produzierten Stroms. Im Laufe der vergangenen Jahre hat die Reservekapazität an Kraftwerksleistung von Eskom stetig abgenom- men, was zu Versorgungsengpässen mit partiel- len Verbraucherabschaltungen geführt hat. Ursachen waren im Wesentlichen zurückgehen- de Verfügbarkeiten beim bestehenden Kraft- werkspark sowie Verzögerungen bei der Inbe- triebnahme neuer Kraftwerke. Daher hat Eskom ein Programm zur Optimie- rung und Erhöhung der Verfügbarkeit seiner Kraftwerke sowie zur zielführenden Inbetrieb- nahme der Neubauten aufgelegt. Einschrän- kungen für die Verbraucher sollen auch im Laufe der Programmumsetzung nicht erfolgen. Das Neubauprogramm hat Eskom im Jahr 2005 begonnen. Mit einer Gesamtleistung von 17.384 MW umfasst es den Neubau von Koh- lekraftwerken, einem Pumpspeicherkraftwerk, Windkraftanlagen sowie einem Concentrated Thermal Solarkraftwerk. Zudem werden zur Verbesserung der Infrastruktur 9.756 km neue Hochspannungsleitungen und rund 42.470 MVA an Umspannungskapazität errichtet. l Overview of the Eskom and South African new build programme Matshela Koko and Yokesh Singh Matshela Koko Group Executive Generation, Eskom Sunninghill/South Africa Yokesh Singh Product Group Manager Boiler Maintenance Services, Eskom Rotek Industries Sunninghill/South Africa Overview of Eskom Eskom is South Africa’s major electricity supplier and is wholly owned by the South African government. Eskom generates ap- proximately 95 % of the electricity used in South Africa and approximately 45 % of the electricity used in Africa. Eskom gen- erates, transmits and distributes electricity to industrial, mining, commercial, agri- cultural and residential customers. Eskom also supplies municipalities who in turn re- distribute the electricity to businesses and households within their areas. Eskom has embarked on a capital expan- sion programme and is currently building new power stations and major power lines to meet South Africa’s growing energy demand. Currently, Eskom owns and op- erates 27 power stations in South Africa with a total nominal capacity of 42,090 megawatt (electric). Eskom’s generating capacity comprises of 35,721 MW e from coal-fired power stations, 1,860 MW e from nuclear power, 2,409 MW from gas turbines fuelled by diesel, 2,000 MW from hydro and pumped storage stations and 100 MW e of wind turbines. The company also maintains more than 359,337 kilometres (km) of power lines and substations with a cumulative capac- ity of 232,179 megavolt amperes (MVA). A further breakdown of the installed gener- ating capacity is shown in Ta b l e 1 . Eskom´s new build programme In 2005, Eskom embarked on a capital expansion programme in order to sup- port South Africa’s economic growth and increased energy requirements. Eskom is constructing new power stations that will provide an additional 11,132 MW e of gen- eration capacity (by 2021/22) in addition to the 6,137 MW e of capacity that has been added to the system from 2005 to Septem- ber 2013. Key projects currently in con- struction include Medupi, Kusile, Ingula and power delivery projects. These pro- jects are at different stages of implementa- tion. Eskom is also currently expanding its transmission grid throughout the country. A short overview of each of these projects is provided by Ta b l e 2 . Tab. 1. Eskom installed generating capacity. Type Number of stations Number of units Nominal capacity, MW Percentage of total nominal capacity, % Coal-fired 13 87 35,721 85.1 Hydroelectric 6 16 600 1.4 Pumped storage 2 6 1,400 3.3 Nuclear 1 2 1,860 4.4 Gas 4 20 2,409 5.7 Wind 1 46 100 0.2 Total nominal capacity 27 124 42,090 100 Tab. 2. Overview of Eskom‘s generation new build programme. Table 2, figure 1 Medupi power station project (6 × 800 MW e ) – Contributing 800 MW e to the grid – First unit (unit 6) commercial on 23 August 2015 – Synchronisation of second unit expected in 2017 Table 2, figure 2 Kusile power station project (6 × 800 MW e ) – The project is making good progress – Synchronisation of 1 st unit (unit 1) is expected at the end of the first half of 2017 Table 2, figure 3 Ingula pumped storage scheme project (4 × 333 MW e ) – Synchronisation of 1 st unit (unit 3) is expected in the first half of 2016 Table 2, figure 4 Sere wind farm project (46 × 2.2 MW e ) – Successfully commercialised on time and on budget – Supplying up to 100 MW e into the grid based on wind conditions

Transcript of Overview of the Eskom and South African new build … DIGITAL VGB PowerTech - Autorenexemplar - 2015...

Page 1: Overview of the Eskom and South African new build … DIGITAL VGB PowerTech - Autorenexemplar - 2015 44 New Eskom power plants VGB PowerTech 1/2 l 2016 Authors Kurzfassung Überblick

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Authors

Kurzfassung

Überblick zum Kraftwerksneubauprogramm von ESKOM in Südafrika

Eskom ist Südafrikas Haupstromversorger und ein Unternehmen im Eigentum des Südafri-kanischen Staates. Eskom erzeugt rund 95 % des in Südafrika und rund 45 % des in Afrika insgesamt produzierten Stroms. Im Laufe der vergangenen Jahre hat die Reservekapazität an Kraftwerksleistung von Eskom stetig abgenom-men, was zu Versorgungsengpässen mit partiel-len Verbraucherabschaltungen geführt hat.Ursachen waren im Wesentlichen zurückgehen-de Verfügbarkeiten beim bestehenden Kraft-werkspark sowie Verzögerungen bei der Inbe-triebnahme neuer Kraftwerke.Daher hat Eskom ein Programm zur Optimie-rung und Erhöhung der Verfügbarkeit seiner Kraftwerke sowie zur zielführenden Inbetrieb-nahme der Neubauten aufgelegt. Einschrän-kungen für die Verbraucher sollen auch im Laufe der Programmumsetzung nicht erfolgen.Das Neubauprogramm hat Eskom im Jahr 2005 begonnen. Mit einer Gesamtleistung von 17.384 MW umfasst es den Neubau von Koh-lekraftwerken, einem Pumpspeicherkraftwerk, Windkraftanlagen sowie einem Concentrated Thermal Solarkraftwerk. Zudem werden zur Verbesserung der Infrastruktur 9.756 km neue Hochspannungsleitungen und rund 42.470 MVA an Umspannungskapazität errichtet. l

Overview of the Eskom and South African new build programmeMatshela Koko and Yokesh Singh

Matshela KokoGroup ExecutiveGeneration, Eskom Sunninghill/South AfricaYokesh SinghProduct Group ManagerBoiler Maintenance Services, Eskom Rotek Industries Sunninghill/South Africa

Overview of Eskom

Eskom is South Africa’s major electricity supplier and is wholly owned by the South African government. Eskom generates ap-proximately 95 % of the electricity used in South Africa and approximately 45 % of the electricity used in Africa. Eskom gen-erates, transmits and distributes electricity to industrial, mining, commercial, agri-cultural and residential customers. Eskom also supplies municipalities who in turn re-distribute the electricity to businesses and households within their areas.Eskom has embarked on a capital expan-sion programme and is currently building new power stations and major power lines to meet South Africa’s growing energy demand. Currently, Eskom owns and op-erates 27 power stations in South Africa with a total nominal capacity of 42,090 megawatt (electric). Eskom’s generating capacity comprises of 35,721 MWe from coal-fired power stations, 1,860 MWe from nuclear power, 2,409 MW from gas turbines fuelled by diesel, 2,000 MW from hydro and pumped storage stations and 100 MWe of wind turbines.

The company also maintains more than 359,337 kilometres (km) of power lines and substations with a cumulative capac-ity of 232,179 megavolt amperes (MVA). A further breakdown of the installed gener-ating capacity is shown in Ta b l e 1 .

Eskom s new build programme

In 2005, Eskom embarked on a capital expansion programme in order to sup-port South Africa’s economic growth and increased energy requirements. Eskom is constructing new power stations that will provide an additional 11,132 MWe of gen-eration capacity (by 2021/22) in addition to the 6,137 MWe of capacity that has been added to the system from 2005 to Septem-ber 2013. Key projects currently in con-struction include Medupi, Kusile, Ingula and power delivery projects. These pro-jects are at different stages of implementa-tion. Eskom is also currently expanding its transmission grid throughout the country. A short overview of each of these projects is provided by Ta b l e 2 .

Tab. 1. Eskom installed generating capacity.

Type Number of stations

Number of units Nominal capacity, MW

Percentage of total nominal capacity, %

Coal-fired 13 87 35,721 85.1

Hydroelectric 6 16 600 1.4

Pumped storage 2 6 1,400 3.3

Nuclear 1 2 1,860 4.4

Gas 4 20 2,409 5.7

Wind 1 46 100 0.2

Total nominal capacity 27 124 42,090 100

Tab. 2. Overview of Eskom‘s generation new build programme.

Table 2, figure 1 Medupi power station project (6 × 800 MWe) – Contributing 800 MWe to the grid – First unit (unit 6) commercial on 23 August 2015 – Synchronisation of second unit expected in 2017

Table 2, figure 2 Kusile power station project (6 × 800 MWe) – The project is making good progress – Synchronisation of 1st unit (unit 1) is expected at the end of the first half of 2017

Table 2, figure 3 Ingula pumped storage scheme project (4 × 333 MWe) – Synchronisation of 1st unit (unit 3) is expected in the first half of 2016

Table 2, figure 4 Sere wind farm project (46 × 2.2 MWe) – Successfully commercialised on time and on budget – Supplying up to 100 MWe into the grid based on wind conditions

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Medupi and Kusile coal-fired power stationsMedupi and Kusile are the largest construc-tion projects in the Southern Hemisphere and will be the 4th and 5th largest coal-fired power station complexes globally. These power stations will also be the larg-est dry-cooled stations in the world. The main packages of the boiler island (Mit-subishi Hitach Power Systems), turbine (Alstom) and instrumentation and control (Alstom) where contracted as a fleet of 12 × 800 MWe units. Ta b l e 3 provides a list of the main design specifications.

Causes for significant delaysThe completion of Medupi and Kusile has been significantly delayed. The original commercial operation date for the first units of Medupi and Kusile were 2012 and 2013, respectively. Some of the major caus-es of these delays are listed below.

Infrastructure and skills developmentAlthough not a direct cause of any delay, it should be noted that South Africa had not built any new coal-fired power stations for more than 20 years prior to awarding the Medupi and Kuisile Power Station projects. The industry needed to rapidly expand to support the supply of 12 × 800 MWe of coal-fired capacity. Local manufac-turing capacity was expanded to support this; however, the availability of both lo-cal and international skills, in particular at supervisory level, was lacking. The period during which Medupi and Kusile Power Stations where contracted coincided with the expansion of local capacity in Germa-ny and China, to support their build pro-grammes, resulting in a global skill short-age at the time.

Front end engineering designDue to the late decision given to Eskom to proceed with the new build programme, limited front end engineering design was performed prior to issuing long lead item specifications for the boiler and turbine is-lands. Design studies and integration con-tinued through execution. This resulted in a greater number of design modifications and integration issues that contributed to schedule delays and compensation events. The early consequences of this of this in-cluded civil construction delays related to

the lack of sufficient geotechnical data and issued related to the seismic design criteria.

Boiler steel structuresThe conversion of the steel structure ba-sic design to a detailed design resulted in connections being incorrectly designed. This was only detected once installation had commenced. Structural members had to be modified on site and certain larger components needed to be returned to the workshop for modification. A total of more than 5,000 modifications were carried out on Medupi Unit 6, steelwork.

Use of incorrectly approved welding proceduresDuring post-production and in some cases during installation, it was discovered that certain welding procedures where incor-rectly approved. These procedures needed to be re-approved using actual production parameters. Of the over 200 procedures requiring re-approval, 4 procedures on thick-walled components affecting X10Cr-MoVNb9-1 and 10CrMo9-10 material did not pass. This resulted in components al-ready installed on Medupi unit 6 and Ku-sile unit 1 requiring in-situ repairs or ad-ditional post-weld heat treatment. Compo-nents fabricated for 5 units where affected. Components affected included P91 circular weld on headers, separator vessels (even-tually all four replaced on Medupi unit 6) and the start-up vessel.

Post-weld heat treatment charts fraudulently producedHeat treatment charts where produced without heat treatment or incorrect heat treatment. Over 9,000 welds which were potentially affected had to be verified to es-tablish whether post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) was performed. This resulted in more than 400 welds with wall thickness ≤ 10 millimetres (mm) being cut out and replaced and more than 400 welds with wall thickness > 10 mm being heat-treat-ed. Areas cut and re-welded included the inlet and outlet connecting tubes of super heater 3 and re-heater 2.

Databook approvalsDuring the review of databooks for final approval, it was discovered that there were additional welding procedures not appropriately qualified thus requiring re-

qualification. Welder qualifications and re-testing documentation was missing and PWHT charts showed deviations from procedures. A significant amount of work had to be done post-fabrication and instal-lation to close out the databooks prior to pressure test.

Installation of pressure parts Insufficient control and measurement during the installation of the water walls resulted in the furnace dimensions being out of tolerance. This compromised the clearance between the heating element bundles and water walls. On Medupi unit 6, the re-heater 1 alignment at the outlet of the furnace was particularly bad with elements having reduced pitch between tubes, reduced expansion gaps between tubes and the water walls and a significant number of touching tubes. The re-heater outlet tubes where cut and re-welded to achieve the required tolerances. The in-terventions proposed for subsequent units have had a positive impact on the align-ment of the re-heater tubes.

Distributed control system Several critical defects where picked up during the first distributed control system (DCS) factory acceptance test. The Modifi-cations consumed a considerable amount of time. The DCS was finally accepted for Medupi after 8 factory acceptance tests and several concessions being granted. There were more serious concerns relating to the boiler protection system, however, these issues could not be resolved ultimate-ly leading to Eskom reissuing the design and supply of the boiler protection system to a separate contractor. Due to the poor performance of the contractor on Medupi the DCS and boiler protection system was re-contracted for Kusile Power Station.

Strikes and labour unrest affect on productivityBoth Medupi and Kusile have been affected by labour unrest, however, this has been more prevalent on the Medupi site. Medupi has had numerous periods of labour unrest since commencement. Concerted efforts are being made to manage the relationship between Eskom, contractors and labour to prevent further delays as a result of labour unrest. It is estimated that labour unrest has caused more than a year’s delay at Medupi Power Station.

Medupi build statusMedupi is a greenfield coal-fired power plant project located west of Lephalale, Limpopo Province, South Africa. The name “Medupi” is a Sepedi word which means “rain that soaks parched lands, giving eco-nomic relief”.The power station will be the fourth larg-est coal-fired plant in the southern hemi-sphere, and will be the largest dry-cooled power station in the world. Medupi Unit 6 has added 794 MWe to the grid, with an-

Tab. 3. Technical specifications: Medupi and Kusile coal-fired power stations.

Plant type Super critical pressure with reheat

Boiler type Once-through sliding pressure, tower type

Fuel Hard coal (HHV 18.7 MJ/kg)

Plant output 6 × 800 MWe (4,800 MWe)

Turbine type Single reheat condensing

Steam condition 241 bar/560 °C/570 °C

Condenser Air-cooled condenser

Condenser pressure 141 mbar at 23.7 °C ambient

Generator GIGATOP 2 poles, power factor = 0.9, 50 Hz

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other 3,970 MWe due to be commissioned by 2019. Once completed, Medupi will be the 5th largest coal-fired power station globaly. Steady progress is being made to achieve the revised dated for commercial operation. There are day to day technical challenges that the contractors and Eskom are working through to ensure these re-vised dated are not compromised. Ta b l e 4 provides the revised commercial operating (CO) dates for the remainder of the 5 units.Medupi unit 5 will be the next unit to go commercial in the third quarter of 2017. The programme to achieve this is being tracked closely to mitigate any potential delays. The boilers have already been suc-cessfully pressure tested. Preparations for back energising are currently in progress, which will allow for additional commis-sioning activities to proceed. F i g u r e 1 provides the dates for the key milestones to achieve commercial operation in 2017.

Kusile build statusKusile Power Station is located close to the existing Kendal power station, in the Nkan-gala district of Mpumalanga. Kusile will be Eskom’s first power station fitted with flue gas desulphurisation (FGD). Once com-pleted, Kusile will be the 4th largest coal-fired power station in the world. The first unit of Kusile is expected to be in commer-cial operation by October 2017. Ta b l e 5 provides the revised commercial operating dates for the 6 units of the power station.Kusile Unit 1 is progressing well to achieve first synchronisation to the grid by the sec-ond quarter of 2017. The boiler hydro test has been completed. The replacement of the instrumentation and control contrac-tor, at a late stage in the project, has placed the distributed control system installation and commissioning on the critical path. The first factory acceptance tests are on-

going. Other key milestones and dates to achieve first synchronisation are provided in F i g u r e 2.

Ingula pumped storageThe Ingula pumped-storage scheme, locat-ed within the Little Drakensberg mountain range, 23 km north-east of Van Reenen’s, comprises an upper dam (Bedford) and a lower dam (Braamhoek). The distance between the upper and lower reservoirs is 4.6 km, with an elevation difference of about 470 metres (m). The reservoirs are connected through underground water-ways to an underground powerhouse com-plex, which will house four 333 MW pump turbines with a total capacity of 1,332 MW. The upper reservoir is concrete-faced rocks fill embankment dam, 41 m high, with a total capacity of 22.4 million cubic metres (m3) and an active water storage volume of 19.2 million m3. The 39 m high lower dam is a roller-compacted concrete, with a total capacity of 26.3 million m3 and an active

Tab. 4. Medupi power station commercial operating dates.

CO Date Unit Capacity, MW Status

August 2015 Unit 6 794 CO achieved 23 August 2015

September 2017 Unit 5 794 Progressing well, see additional detail on unit 5 progress

December 2017 Unit 4 794 Progressing well

August 2018 Unit 3 794 Progressing well

February 2019 Unit 2 794 Progressing well

June 2019 Unit 1 794 Progressing well

Tab. 5. Kusile power station commercial operating dates.

CO Date Unit Capacity, MW Status

October 2017 Unit 1 800 Progressing well, see additional detail on Unit 1 progress

November 2018 Unit 2 800 Progressing well

December 2019 Unit 3 800 Progressing well

July 2020 Unit 4 800 Progressing well

March 2021 Unit 5 800 Progressing well

December 2021 Unit 6 800 Progressing well

Boiler hydrotest Q3 – 2015

Back energise Q4 – 2015

Boiler chemical clean Q4 – 2016

Draught group test runs Q4 – 2016

Turbine on barring Q4 – 2016

Burners commissioned Q4 – 2016

1st coal fire Q4 – 2016

Steam blow through Q1 – 2017

Acc Steam cleaning Q1 – 2017

First synchronisation Q1 – 2017

1. Boilerhydro test

2. Backenergising

3. Chemicalcleaningcomplete

4. Draughtgroup run

5. Turbine onbarring

6. Burnerscommissioned,first fire on oil

7. Firstfire oncoal

8. Boiler blow

through

9. Ass steamcleaning

10. First sync

Complete Current milestone in progressComplete Milestones to be completed

Note: Quarters indicated below a calendar year quaters

Commissiong item Completiondates

Fig. 1. Medupi unit 5 milestones.

Boiler hydrotest Q3 – 2015

Back energise Q4 – 2015

Boiler chemical clean Q4 – 2016

Draught group test runs Q4 – 2016

Boiler hydrotest Q3 – 2015

Back energise Q4 – 2015

Boiler chemical clean Q4 – 2016

Draught group test runs Q4 – 2016

Boiler hydrotest Q3 – 2015

Back energise Q4 – 2015

Boiler chemical clean Q4 – 2016

Draught group test runs Q4 – 2016

Complete Current milestone in progressComplete Milestones to be completed

Note: Quarters indicated below a calendar year quaters

Commissiong item Completiondates

Boiler hydro Q3 – 2015

Start C&I Q3 – 2015

C&I FAT tests Q4 – 2015

Mechanical complete Q4 – 2015

Chemical clean Q4 – 2016

First fire on oil Q4 – 2016

First fire on coal Q4 – 2016

Steam blows Q4 – 2016

Restore from steam blows Q1 – 2017

First synchronisation Q2 – 2017

1. Re-heathydro√

Super-heaterhydro√

2. Start C&I√

3. FAT test

5. Chemicalclean

7. Firstfire oncoal

8. Steamblows

9. Restorefrom steam

blows

10. Unit sync

4. Mechanicalcomplete

6. First fireon oil

Fig. 2. Kusile unit 5 milestones.

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storage volume of 21.9 million m3. The scheme will be operated on a weekly cycle and will have an overall cycle efficiency of 78 %. Eskom intends to synchronise unit 3 and 4 of this station in 2016. The synchro-nisation dates for all four units are provid-ed in Ta b l e 6.The operation of Ingula Power Station will greatly assist in alleviating some of the current supply constraints in South Africa, particularly during peak periods.

Current electricity supply situation

The environment in which Eskom operates today has significantly changed over the last 20 years. During the period when Es-kom had large reserve margins there was a concerted drive to increase access to elec-tricity as well as drive down real prices of electricity. Eskom achieved both of these goals. However this did result in a lack of investment into new generating assets as well as electricity tariffs not being reflec-tive of what would be required to support renewed capital expansion/replacement.

Ta b l e 7 provides a time line of some of the defining periods in Eskom as it moved from oversupply to rotational load shedding.

Eskom has been managing a very tight system of supply and demand for several years and currently has little to no oper-

Tab. 6. Ingula dates.

Unit First synchronisation

Unit 3 Q3 – 2016

Unit 4 Q4 – 2016

Unit 2 Q1 – 2017

Unit 1 Q1 – 2017

Tab. 7. Eskom timeline 1994 to 2015.

Eskom time line 1994 to 2015

1994 Eskom undertook to electrify 1.75 million homes by 2000 as part of the government‘s reconstruction and development plan Eskom agrees with the government to reduce the real price of electricity by 20 % by 2000

1995 The national electricity regulator is formedSouthern african power pool becomes a reality

1996 Eskom confirmed as the cheapest producer of electricity in the world

1998 The white paper on the energy policy of South Africa, approved by cabinet, shows Eskom warning that its surplus capacity will be fully used by 2007Plans to stimulate interest from private power producers were in development

2001 Eskom recieved the award “the power company of the year“ at the global energy awards ceremony in New York

2004 Eskom approval to start building power plants, two years after “return-to-service” programme started

2006 Intermittent power cuts begin and maintenance constraints emergesProcurement of new coal-fired power plants underway

2007 Eskom places first contracts for new build projects (Medupi and Kusile) within the scope of its capital expansion programme

2008 Controlled power cuts termed “load-shedding” introducedVarious demand side management initiatives are introduced

2009 to 2014 Focus on “Keeping the Lights on”Load shedding avoidedConstruction on new build programs delayed, maintenance backlog continues to increaseExisting plant performance is deterioratingRenewable Energy Independent Power Producers Program (REIPPP) launched

2015 Widespread “load-shedding” re-introducedMedupi Unit 6 supplies first electricity to the national gridSere windfarm 100 MW commissionedEskom introduced turn-around strategy

September 1 overview of availablle capacity vs demand Key insightsGW Capacity

44.00

6.50

7.00 30.50 29.40

+ 1.10

Installedcapacity

Plannedoutage

Unplannedoutage

Actualoutput

Aveargepeak

demand

• Reserve margins are low (~2.5 %)

• UCLF is high due to maintenance backlog

• Additional capacity is needed to undertake additional maintenance and reduce the backlog

• Funding

Summer and winter load profiles

Typical summer day Typical winter day36,000

34,000

32,000

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

0:00

3:00

6:00

9:00

12:0

0

15:0

0

18:0

0

21:0

0

Plant availability (EAF) Unplanned maintenance (UCLF)

81.9977.65 75.13 73.73

8.00

12.1 12.6

15.2

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15

Fig. 3. Eskom plant performance figures.

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ating reserve margin available. This has resulted in a backlog on maintenance that needs to be cleared. This backlog can only be effectively cleared as additional reserve margin becomes available. The lower than optimal maintenance in previous periods, plant operating at high utilisation factors of 83.4 % (approximately 20 % above the international norm) in addition to the fact that the average age of the base load fleet is 34 years has resulted in a volatile gen-eration performance over this period. In-creased unplanned maintenance is limiting the opportunity for planned maintenance and impacting plant availability. The en-ergy availability factor (EAF) has stabilised at around 73 %. Eskom was eventually unable to balance supply and demand necessitating rotation-al load shedding during June 2014, and more frequently from November 2014 to August 2015. The winter months are par-ticularly risky due to the significant differ-ence between base load and evening peak requirements. F i g u r e 3 provides some key indices that illustrate deterioration in plant performance, the reserve margins typically available and the variance in load profiles between the summer and winter months.Supplementary supplies from IPPs help to balance the supply and demand con-straints. There is currently 1,795 MWe of renewable energy IPPs (1,185 MWe solar and 600 MWe wind) supplying power to the grid at an average load factor of ± 31 %. A total of 5,817 MW is contracted with IPPs,

consisting of 3,900 MW under the Depart-ment of Energy (DoE) REIPP programme and a further 1,356 MW dispatchable load is available under the demand response programme (supply agreements with in-dustrial clients who are compensated to reduce load based on system constraints).

Along with the supplementary supplies, Eskom has implemented a targeted main-tenance philosophy that will increase the levels of maintenance being performed within the constraints of the current sup-ply and demand requirements. Two critical factors in stabilising the supply constraint and reducing the reliance on expensive generation options to meet demand is to ensure that:

– There is no further delays to the build programme and

– To improve the availability of the exist-ing fleet.

Eskom is working on a strategy to improve availability from the current levels of 73 to 80 % by financial year 2018/2019.

F i g u r e 4 illustrates the criticality of im-proving the performance of the existing generation fleet. The performance im-provement will have a direct influence on the duration required to reach a stable sup-ply environment.

Although the electricity supply system re-mains highly constrained, the turnaround strategy implemented by Eskom has al-ready started to show results. Eskom has not had to resort to load shedding since August 2015, with the exception of a short

period for 2 hours 20 minutes. Current supply forecasts anticipate that there will be no further rotational load shedding till August 2016 and possibly beyond this date.

Overview of the South African build programme

Eskom acknowledges the country’s need for electricity generation capacity from the private sector in order to strengthen the system adequacy and meet growing power demand. Eskom purchases electricity from IPPs under various agreement schemes as well as from electricity generating facilities beyond the country’s borders. The Inte-grated Resource Plan (IRP), promulgated in 2011, by the DoE outlines the future of South Africa’s electricity expansion be-tween the periods 2010 to 2030.

The development of the IRP took into ac-count key constraints and risks such as:

– Reducing carbon emissions (limited to a cap of 274 million tonnes/year by 2025),

– New technology uncertainties, – Water usage, – Localisation and job creation, – Southern African regional development

and integration and – Security of supply.

Excluding the committed new generation capacities (Medupi, Kusile, Ingula and Sere), the plan proposes an additional 9.6 gigawatt (GW) of nuclear, 6.3 GW of coal, 17.8 GW of renewables, 2.6 GW of hydro, 2.4 GW combined cycle gas turbines and

Capa

city

in M

W

Capa

city

in M

W

Capacity required: Low demand, improving EAF, no delay Capacity required: Low demand, down decline EAF, no delay

7,000

5,000

3,000

1,000

-1,000

7,000

5,000

3,000

1,000

-1,000

Base MidMerit Peaking Base MidMerit Peaking

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

EAF Comparison

EAF

in %

80

78

76

74

72

70

68FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020

Downward decline plant perfomance Corporate plan plant perfomance

Fig. 4. Impact of EAF on future capacity requirements.

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3.9 GW open cycle gas turbines. A review of this plan conducted in 2013 has sug-gested that some of the capacity proposed in the plan could be deferred based on re-vised lower demand projections. Allocation of capacities identified in the plan, for execution by IPPs or Eskom, are decided through a determination by the Minister of DoE (ministerial determina-tion). F i g u r e 5 shows the technology and capacities already released for “requests for proposals” through the ministerial de-terminations made in 2011, 2012 and 2015 on the current plan.The allocation of projects to IPPs under the IRP is progressing well. Ta b l e 8 provides an update on the progress of the various programmes linked to securing the re-quired capacities based on the ministerial determinations.

Conclusion

Eskom has experienced severe delays on its build programme. These delays have nega-tively impacted on the supply situation in South Africa. The delays have also had a consequential impact on the performance of the existing fleet due to the reduced opportunity to perform required planned maintenance. The current supply constraints in South Africa will remain for the next few years. Eskom has implementing a turnaround strategy that will drive delivery on the new build projects and assist in improving the performance of the existing generation fleet. This coupled with the progress be-ing made on the DoE IPP programmes will assist in the medium to long-term stability of the system and reduce the reliance on

more expensive generation options to meet demand. Although the electricity supply system re-mains highly constrained, the turnaround strategy implemented by Eskom has al-ready started to show results. Eskom has not had to resort to load shedding since August 2015, with the exception of a short period for 2 hours 20 minutes. Current supply planning anticipates that there will be no further rotational load shedding till August 2016 and possibly beyond this date.

MW capacity to be added to the grid Eskom commitments (pre IRP) 2012 determinations2011 determinations 2015 determinations

Coal(PF, FBC,importown build Nuclear

Importhydro

GasCCGT

PeakOCGT Wind CSP

SolarPV Coal Other

DoEPeaker

OtherRenew.

Cogen(non-IRP)

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Total

00005005000002502502502502502502502,750

00000000000001,6001,6001,6004,800

0000000000001,1432,28328302,609

0000000002372372370000711

00000000000080580508052,415

00008008004004004004004004004004008001,6007,200

000002001001001001001001001001001001001,200

003003003003003003003003003003003003003001,0002,900

3806793038237221,4447222,1687231,4467230000010,133

2601300003339990000000001,722

000001,02000000000001,020

0000251000000000000125

0000020020020020030030040000001,800

Fig. 5. IRP 2010 ministerial determinations.

Tab. 8. DoE IPP programmes.

Programme Determinations Implementation

RE-IPP 1st determination in 2011 allocated 3,825 MW

2nd determination in 2012 allocated an additional 3,200 MW

3rd determination in 2015 allocated and additional 6,700 MW

Bid Window 1: 1,423.82 MW signed with 1,365 MW already commercially operational

Bid Window 2: 1,041.42 MW signed with 656 MW commercially operational

Bid Window 3: 1,435 MW signed with 16 MW still to be signed

200 MW in Bid Window 3.5 and 1,121 MW in Bid Window 4 announced but not yet reached financial close

Diesel Peaker Determination of 1,020 MW Contracts signed for 1,005 MW. Operational from late 2015

Coal Baseload IPP 2012 determination of 2,500 MW Process still ongoing – request for proposal documents released to mark

Co-generation 2012 determination of 800 MW2015 determination of an additional 1,000 MW

First round bids received – awaiting announcement; further rounds in progress

Gas 2012 determination of 2,652 MW (base-load or mid-merit) gas and 474 MW (base-load) gas = total of 3,126 MW

2015 determination retained capacity of 3,126 MW; removed breakdown in base-load vs mid-merit requirement; al-lowed for liquefied natural gas, shale, regional or domestic conventional sources

Gas utilisation master plan under development

Abbreviation Description°C Degrees celsiusCO Commercial operationDCS Distributed control systemDoE South African Department

of EnergyEAF Energy availability factorGW GigawattHHV Higher heating valueHz HertzIPP Independent power producerIRP South African integrated

resource plankg Kilogramkm Kilometrem Metrem3 Cubic metreMJ Megajoulemm MillimetresMVA Megavolt amperesMW Megawatt MWe Megawatt electricalPWHT Post Weld Heat TreatmentRE Renewable EnergyREIPPP Renewable Energy Inde-

pendent Power Producer Program

References [1] Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity

2010-2030, Revision 2, Final Report. DoE. l

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