11th Session of the NORTH ATLANTIC SEAFOOD FORUM MARCH 1–3, 2016BERGEN, NORWAY

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Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General

Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations

GLOBAL POLICY AND TRADE SESSION: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030

prospects and challenges

Total Landings of Marine Fisheries

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Marine Fish Landings by Continent

19501952

19541956

19581960

19621964

19661968

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania

3

Fish Landings: Developed vs Developing Nations

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0e+0

01e+

072e

+073e+

074e

+075e+

076e

+07

yrs

Land

ings

(t)

4

Global Trend in the State of World Marine Fish Stocks, 1974-2011

5

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0Aquaculture for human consumptionCapture for human consumptionNon-food usesPer capita food fish supply

Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg)

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Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9%

[Million Tonnes]

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

China61%

Asia91%

Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production

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19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

160000000

0

5

10

15

20

25

World seafood exports Linear (World seafood exports)World seafood consumption Linear (World seafood consumption)

Kg p

er c

apita

per

yea

r

Globalization in a graph: world seafood exports vs world average seafood consumption 1976 to 2014

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2012 2013 20140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

35.2%

35.4%

35.6%

35.8%

36.0%

36.2%

36.4%

36.6%

36.8%

37.0%

Production volume Trade volume Proportion of production traded

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Perc

enta

ge tr

aded

Production vs trade – last three years

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19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

Developed ImportDeveloping Import

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

Developed ExportDeveloping Export

World seafood trade: developed vs developing

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Jan-00

May-00

Sep-00Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14Jan-15

0

50

100

150

200

250

Fish Meat (Terrestrial)

Terrestrial meat price index vs. Fish price index Jan 2000 – Jan 2015

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Conclusion from this analyzes is:

• Total production has stabilized over the last 20 years.

• Capture fisheries landings have shifted from developed countries to developing countries.

• Degree of overfishing has been stabilizing over the last 20 years but is still unacceptable.

• Aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries in production for human consumption.

• Great expansion in trade, particularly from developing countries to developed countries, is slowing down.

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Conclusion from this analyzes is:

A. Center of gravity for fish production has moved from developed countries to developing countries, where small scale

fisheries will be extremely important.

B. Center of gravity has moved from capture fisheries to aquaculture, particularly aquaculture in Asia.

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Will there be any international trade in fish?

1. Political reasons?

The general political environment is favorable.

Something dramatic has to happen to change that.

2. What about demand?

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• .

OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022)

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average.Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.

WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections

Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red

Country/

region

Fish Demand (2030) Total

fish prod. (2012,

mil. tonne)

S-D gap2030

(col. 4 minus col. 3)

kg/cap.Total (mil. tonne

)

WORLD

29.1 261.2

156.5 -104.7

S.S. Africa

10.8 15.1

6.9 -8.2

L.A. & C.

12.2 18.3

14.8 -3.4

N. Africa

12.9 3.7

2.8 -0.8

Europe

27.3 23.4

16.0 -7.4

N. America

29.8 12.9

6.7 -6.1

Oceania

31.9 1.8

1.4 -0.3

Asia

37.0 186.3

107.8 -78.5

Future fish supply and demand projections

FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections

Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results)Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged

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What about environmental reasons?

a. Climate change: Video presentation delivered on the on the occasion of the Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact held in Boracay Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y

b. We have done relatively well in the last 20 years post CCRF. The situation is stable in fisheries but the next 20 years may be different, continued challenge.

c. Aquaculture has a very light ecological foot print compared to terrestrial animal protein production systems. However question marks around animal protein and trophic levels. 16

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Main Challenges There are many challenges some of which have been

mentioned

They fall into two categories:

1. Refining the management and governance of fisheries in developed and middle income-countries.

2. Refining the certification/traceability systems to benefit a broader group of producers.

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Main Challenges

However, there are two main fundamental major challenges, both in

the shadow of climate change:

• Aquaculture• Small Scale Fisheries

• Decent Work19

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THANK YOU FOR LISTENING