Outlines Introduction Model Forecast Conclusion ... · VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST WINTER 2018...
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Introduction Outlines Conclusion Acknowledgement Model Forecast
Transcript of Outlines Introduction Model Forecast Conclusion ... · VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST WINTER 2018...
Introduction
Outlines
Conclusion
Acknowledgement
Model Forecast
IntroductionForecast verification is an essential component of
seasonal climate forecasting: without information about thequality of the forecasts how is anybody to know whether tobelieve them ? It is very easy to make a forecast ,but it is muchharder to make a good forecast, and so the onus is on theforecaster to demonstrate that his/her forecasts are worthlistening to. However, the question: “Are these forecasts good?”does not usually have a simple “yes” or “no” answer for a numberof reasons. Firstly, forecast quality is not a simple binaryquantity: it is perfectly reasonable to ask how good (or bad) theforecasts are rather than just whether they are good or bad.Secondly, forecast quality is not a simple univariate quantity:forecasts can be “good” in a number of different ways, and soforecasts A may be better than forecasts B in some ways but notin others. Hence fairly detailed information about the quality offorecasts can be determined, and it is possible to go beyondasking “Can these forecasts be believed?” to address questionssuch as “How can these forecasts best be used?” and “How canthese forecasts be improved?”
INTRODUCTION
Temperature of the winter season 2017/2018
DJF 2017/18 WINTER
TEMPERATURE
-+Morocco
-The Arabian
Gulf Region
+Egypt
+Levant Region
VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST 2018 OUTLOOK OVER ARAB REGION
DJF 2017/18 WINTER
TEMPERATURE
conducts reanalysis
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
DJF 2017/18 WINTER
TEMPERATURE
conducts seasonal
forecast
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
652510504010
553015
603010
Precipitation of the winter season 2017/2018
DJF 2017/18 WINTER
PRECIPITATION
VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST WINTER 2018
DJF 2017/18 WINTER
PRECIPITATION
conducts reanalysis
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
DJF 2017/18 WINTER
PRECIPITATION
conducts seasonal
forecast
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
54550104050
103060
155040
VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST WINTER 2018
Table (1)
Country
Egypt
Station
ID in zone
(62)
Seasonal temperature
(DJF 2017/2018)
Seasonal precipitation
(DJF 2017/2018)
High impact events
Observed (1981-2010) as climatological reference
climate outlook of seasonal forecast for temperature
Observed (1981-2010) as climatological reference
climate outlook of seasonal forecast for precipitationB N A B N A
Egypt
- - A A B N(M) - B
Libya- - A A B(N) N(S) - B
Algeria
- - A A B(N) N(M) A(S) B
Tunisia
B (N) - A (S) A - N-
B
Morocco B - - A - N - N
The Arabian Gulf
Region B - A A - N - B
The Levant Region- - A A - N - B
Temperature of the summer season 2018
JJA 2018 SUMMER
TEMPERATURE
VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST 2018 OUTLOOK OVER ARAB REGION
702010554005
702010
405010
JJA 2018 SUMMER
TEMPERATURE
conducts reanalysis
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
JJA 2018 SUMMER
TEMPERATURE
conducts seasonal
forecast
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
Precipitation of the summer season 2018
JJA SUMMER
PRECIPITATION
JJA SUMMER
PRECIPITATION
VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST SUMMER 2018
106030156025
056035
104545
JJA SUMMER
PRECIPITATION
conducts reanalysis
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
JJA SUMMER
PRECIPITATION
conducts seasonal
forecast
in 3 categories : Above ,
Near, and Below Normal
VERIFICATION SEASONAL FORECAST SUMMER 2018
Table (2)
Country
Egypt
Station
ID in zone
(62)
Seasonal temperature
(JJA2018)
Seasonal precipitation
(JJA2018) High impact
eventsObserved
(1981-2010) as
climatological
referenceclimate
outlook of
seasonal
forecast for
temperature
Observed
(1981-2010) as
climatological
referenceclimate
outlook of
seasonal
forecast for
precipitationB N A B N A
Egypt
Algeria
Tunisia
Morocco
The Arabian Gulf
Region
The Levant
Region
