Outline - iges.or.jp file4/8/2010 3 Reference Emission Level • SB 28 :“Means to establish...
Transcript of Outline - iges.or.jp file4/8/2010 3 Reference Emission Level • SB 28 :“Means to establish...
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Kemitraan Untuk REDD+ :Lokakarya Nasional Bagi Pemerintah dan Masyarakat Sipil
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Outline
• Baseline and REL (RL)
• Approaches in defining REL
• Defining REL (national)
• Permenhut REL (Draft)
• Uncertainties• Uncertainties
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• CDM : BaselineCDM : Baseline
• REDD : Reference Emission Level
• REDD+ : Reference Level
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Baseline (CDM)
• “The baseline for a proposed afforestation or f t ti j t ti it d th CDM ireforestation project activity under the CDM is
the scenario that reasonably represents the sum of the changes in carbon stocks in the carbon pools within the project boundary that would have occurred in the absence of the proposed project activity (5/CMP.1, Annex, paragraph 19)”
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Reference Emission Level• SB 28 :“Means to establish reference emission levels, based on
historical data, taking into account, inter‐alia, trends, starting dates and the length of the reference period availability anddates and the length of the reference period, availability and reliability of historical data, and other specific national circumstances.”
• REDD‐UNFCC Expert Meeting on “Methodological Issues relating to Reference Emission Levels (23‐24 March 2009) : »The reference emissions level (REL) is the amount of grossemissions from a geographical area estimated within areference time period (REDD)reference time period (REDD)
»The reference level (RL) is the amount of net/grossemissions and removals from a geographical area estimatedwithin a reference time period (Conservation, SMF, EFCS)
REL and REDD intervention
IFCA, 2008
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Take into account
• Trends: vary across Indonesia
• Starting dates: Data availability; Political
• The length of the reference period: Methodology; political
• Availability and reliability of historical data,
• Other specific national circumstances.”
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Approaches in defining REL
IFCA, 2008:
T ki f t diti d• Taking an average of past conditions over an agreed time frame;
• Modeling based on unplanned (unsanctioned) activities and planned land use to meet development goals over a specified time frame;
Mi d REL h i i f l d d• Mixed REL where emissions from planned and unplanned drivers of deforestation and degradation are considered differently and separately.
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Discussion: Sub national
Source: Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1997 ; Murdiyarso Slide, 2008
LF/HD HF/HD
HF/LD
LF/LD
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LF/LD
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Average of past emissions
• how far into the future should such an i i l l b j t d?emission level be projected?
• historic drivers and factors responsible may be different
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Modeling
• identifies and interprets the future effects of d i h l ti th ddrivers such as population growth and economic growth on deforestation
• projections depends on whether the drivers of deforestation/degradation are planned or unplanned.p
• Planned unsanctioned activities
• Unplanned Plantation, forest conversions
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Mixed REL
• Both Planned and Unplanned occurs in I d iIndonesia
• Planned Economic model; global supply and demand;
• Unplanned Based on past patterns
• Geomod (spatially explicit)• Geomod (spatially explicit)
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Geomod in EastEast
Kalimantan(IFCA, 2008)
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Defining REL (AGB Forestry)
• Activity data:
Land cover change : Landsat 5 Landsat 7Land cover change : Landsat 5, Landsat 7 ETM+ (1990, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006)
• Emission/Removal Factor
National Forest Invetory Sample PlotsNational Forest Invetory Sample Plots
‐ 1990‐1996 (2735 plots)
‐ 1996‐2000 (1145 plots)
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PENUTUPAN LAHAN
KAWASAN HUTANAREAL
PENGGUNAAN LAIN (APL)
JUMLAH
Satuan: Juta hektar
Area (ha) % Area (ha) % Area (ha) %
BERHUTAN BERHUTAN 92,328
(Primer=43,801, LOA=48,526)
49% 8,412 4% 100,740 54%
TIDAK BERHUTANTIDAK BERHUTAN 40,071 21% 46,976 25% 87,047 46%
JUMLAH 132,399 71% 55,388 29% 187,787 100%
Sumber: Citra satelit Landsat 7 ETM+ tahun 2005/2006 (217 scenes)Penafsiran 2007, Publikasi 2008Penutupan hutan dan lahan yang tertutup awan seluas 3,5 juta ha diprediksidari areal di sekitarnya.
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DISTRIBUTION OF 2.735 CLUSTER PLOTS ACROSS INDONESIA
Above Ground Biomass in Forest Land
Hutan
Rata‐rata
Biomasa AGB
(ton/Ha)
Rata‐rata
CO2e
(ton/Ha)
Primer 390,7 716,9
Sekunder 339,2 622,4
APL 271 9 499 0APL 271,9 499,0
APLp 293,1 537,9
APLs 271,8 498,8
KSA 434,2 796,7
KSAp 456,9 838,5
KSAs 388,7 713,2
HL 378,1 693,7
HLp 407,5 747,8
HLs 355,3 652,0
HPK 331,7 608,6
HPKp 332,7 610,6
HPKs 316,4 580,6
HP 312,1 572,7
HPp 367,7 674,8
HPs 323,1 592,8
HPT 371,2 681,1
HPTp 394,7 724,3
HPTs 366,5 672,6
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Calculations and Assumptions in Defining REL (national; AGB)
• Deforestatation rate : based on average rate 1990‐2006 1,125 million ha/year2006 1,125 million ha/year
• Future Deforestation: Flat (till 2020)• Forest Degradation : logging activities : 626.000 ha/year
• Biomass Conversion and Expansion Factors/BCEF) sebesar 1,67 (IPCC, 2006)
• Biomass growth average in natural forest = 2,9 ton/HaBiomass growth average in natural forest 2,9 ton/Ha atau 5,32 CO2e (NFI, dari 2 measurement period)
• Biomass growth average in plantation forest 20 ton/Ha atau 36,7 ton/Ha CO2e (IPCC,2006)
DEFORESTADEFORESTATION RATETION RATE
3.51
2.83
2 0
3.00
3.50
4.00
1.87
1.08 1.17 1.37
0.78 0.76
0.50 0.68
0.30 0.41
‐
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1990‐1996 1996‐2000 2000‐2003 2003‐2006
Seluruh Indonesia Di dalam Kawasan Hutan Di luar Kawasan Hutan (APL)
Deforestation Rate 1990‐1996 1996‐2000 2000‐2003 2003‐2006 Projection
Indonesia 1.87 3.51 1.08 1.17 1.125
Forest Land 1.37 2.83 0.78 0.76 0.770
Non Forest Land (APL)
0.50 0.68 0.30 0.41 0.355
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1.4 1.24 1.24 1.24
0 2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0.66 0.69 0.71
CO2e (Giga Ton)
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0
0.2
2010 2015 2020
TAHUNEmisi Tahunan
Serapan Tahunan (BAU)
Permen REL (Draft)
• REL: National (MoFor), Province (Governor), District (Bupati/Walikota), management unit (manager)( p / ), g ( g )
• All Carbon Pools : AGB, BGB, DW, Litter, Soil
• Governor, Bupati/Walikota are responsible for emission reduction in their respective province/district
• REL establishment in every 5 years or lessREL establishment in every 5 years or less
• Monitoring on Emission reduction in every 3 years (national and Province)
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Permen REL (Draft)• REL/RL (provincial or district) should be set based on a quota from national RL
• Local circumstances should be used to address wide participation and equity(Indigenous people)
• Public Consultation
• Displacement of emission/Leakage (International, National, Sub‐National, Project)
• Regulation : in progress
Uncertainties
• Should be measured
• May be reduced by increasing plot numbers and distribution (based on forest stratification)
• IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse GasManagement in National Greenhouse Gas Inventorieshttp://www.ipcc‐nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/index.html
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Highlights
• To be considered: trends, starting dates, the l th f th f i d il bilitlength of the reference period, availability and reliability of historical data, and other specific national circumstances
• Traditional Approaceches: Historical, Modeling, Mixed RELg,
• National, Subnational, “Project” Level
• Uncertainties
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Terima Kasih
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