Our Next President

Predicting the next leader of the free world

Primaries Are Unpredictable• Cues like party identification are irrelevant, leaving

little data that is useful in predicting outcomes. • Unlike general elections, campaigns and how they

are run actually influence outcomes.• So can external events and even momentum. In fact,

early voters in primaries can have up to 20 times the influence that later voters have.*

• Polling is often off leading up to and even during the primaries.

• The RNC is already in the process of adjusting the schedule and rules for their 2012 nominating process, so the next primaries are particularly unpredictable from so far out.

• So, while there is not much we can definitively say with regard to who will win in 2012, we can look at historical and recent trends, the potential candidates, and the most likely issues that might contextualize the race in order to guess a likely outcome.

*Brian Knight and Nathan Shiff 2008

2000 and ’08: An historical perspective

George W. Bush John McCain Alan Keyes Steve Forbes Gary Bauer Orrin Hatch January 24 Iowa (caucus) 41% 5% 14% 31% 9% 1% February 1 New Hampshire (primary) 30% 49% 6% 13% 1% - February 8 Delaware (primary) 51% 25% 4% 20% - - February 19 South Carolina (primary) 53% 42% 5% - - - February 22 Arizona (primary) 36% 60% 4% - - - February 22 Michigan (primary) 43% 50% 5% - - - February 29 Virginia (primary) 53% 44% 3% - - - February 29 Washington (primary) 58% 38% 3% - - - February 29 North Dakota (caucus) 76% 19% 5% - - - March 7 California (primary) 61% 35% 4% - - - March 7 Connecticut (primary) 46% 49% 3% - - - March 7 Georgia (primary) 67% 28% 5% - - - March 7 Maine (primary) 51% 44% 3% - - - March 7 Maryland (primary) 56% 36% 7% - - - March 7 Massachusetts (primary) 32% 65% 3% - - - March 7 Missouri (primary) 58% 35% 6% - - - March 7 New York (primary) 51% 43% 4% - - - March 7 Ohio (primary) 58% 37% 4% - - - March 7 Rhode Island (primary) 36% 60% 3% - - - March 7 Vermont (primary) 36% 61% 3% - - - March 7 Minnesota (caucus) 63% 17% 20% - - - March 7 Washington (caucus) 80% 15% 4% - - - March 14 Florida (primary) 74% 20% 5% - - -

GWB: 2000’s Most Moral• McCain limited to

Northern states and Arizona.

• As other candidates support dropped after Iowa and NH, so did they

• New Hampshire: McCain’s only significant victory

• A clear value dichotomy

• The victor: compassionate conservatism

Shifting sands in 2008• Longest primary

season in history• In 2000, 2004 moral

values were king. Not in 2008

• More competitive than 2000: no clear dichotomy at beginning

• Circumstances elevated experience, creating a consensus candidate.

• Conservatives did not need “a conservative,” but a leader, who was conservative.

“To paraphrase the late William F. Buckley Jr., McCain is ‘conservative’ but not ‘a conservative.’”– LA Times

Primary TakeawaysSuccess in early primaries

Broad appeal is essential

Fitting with the times

While the RNC is currently exploring changes, would-be candidates fall victim to front-loaded primary calendars.

Although hyper-focused success can prolong a candidacy, candidates must be able to satisfy a broad coalition to win.

Candidates must be able to satisfy the issues of the time in order to convince the Party that they should leave them forward.  However, sometimes, issues shift without control with bad timing.

Sarah Palin• Name Recognition

o Past VP candidate, already a household name

o Problem is, that recognition is mostly negative

• Fundraising Abilityo SarahPAC (already has fundraising

mechanism)o Able to gain funding from certain social

conservative groups (e.g. pro-life, pro-gun, oil)

• Primaries Capabilityo Totally dependent on ability to revamp

imageo Will do well in social conservative

states (IA)o Less in states voting on economy (MI)o Gallup: 39% ready, 33% not ready,

29% no opinion• Republican Party Sentiment

o Rasmussen post-election – 69% helped McCain, 20% hurt McCain (still 91% favorable view)

o CPAC strawpoll – 13%, tied for 3rd with Ron Paul

Mike Huckabee

• Name Recognitiono Past Candidate (won 8 states)o Huckabee on FoxNews

• Fundraising Abilityo In 2008, raised $12,992,908 o Will gain funding support of

many conservative PAC’s & individuals

o Won IA spending only $52 per vote

• Primaries Capabilityo Can come out strong, win IA againo Will do well in southern states once

again (LA, KS, AR, TN, GA, AL, WV, IA)

• Republican Party Sentimento CPAC strawpoll – 7% (6th place)o 12/5/08 CNN poll – Republicans

favor him 34% (over Palin’s 32%) to secure 2012 nomination

Tim Pawlenty• Name Recognition

o Rumored to run in 2008 (or at least VP)

o Not as well known to most Americanso Most famous for balancing MN budget

w/no increase in taxation• Fundraising Ability

o Hard time off the start (need a familiarity

campaign first)o Most $ from anti-immigration lobby

(send in the guards)

• Primaries Capabilityo Will do well w/ strong

evangelicals (struggle to steal those votes from Huckabee)

o Success in MN and Mid-West (e.g. MT)

• Republican Party Sentiment o CPAC strawpoll – 2% (only beat

Crist)o Not unliked, but such a strong

social conservative may not suit the preferred image the GOP wants to use in 2012

John Huntsman, Jr. Pros• Young• Experienced (2 Term Governor, US Ambassador)• Wildly popular• Wealthy

o Capable of raising money/self fundingo Business background

• “Hot button” Social Conservative (appeals to base)• Progressive energy, environment, and Health care

reform through conservative economic • Early state advantage

Cons• Too Moderate?• Mormon • Not much name recognition

Bobby JindalPros• Young• Experienced

o Congress (two terms)o Governor since 2007

• Name Recognitiono Republican “Rising Star”

• Fairly conservativeCons• Minority• Catholic• May want to wait for more ideal

election cycle• Too young• Too conservative for general

election

Mitt RomneyPros• Experience• Name Recognition• Wealth/fundraising

o Free and Strong America PAC• Campaign Experience• Appeals to Conservative base• Performed well in early States (Iowa,

New Hampshire)• Lame duck candidate?

Cons• Pre-existing reputation• Mormon• Mitt v. Huckabee

Issues Likely To Come Up

• The economy will probably still be the most pressing issue in the news and politics.

• This election will be a referendum on Obama’s presidency so far. Republicans will be looking for someone who can criticize him without ending up looking worse for it.

• Republicans will also have to decide if they are most concerned with appealing to their base or with widening their appeal to more moderates.

• Similarly, do they want a candidate who is known for their social issues background? Their economic or business acumen? Foreign policy background? Something else – depending on whatever issues are most critical in 2012?

• Who among the candidates has the best experience and record in response to the economic and foreign policy issues most pressing at the time?

Primary Prediction Scenario

• Hukabee wins IOWA• Romney wins the majority of Super Tuesday

Primary by Early February, 2012

Romney, the nominee

Reasons:1.Name Recognition 2.Experience 3.Money4. Charismatic Character5. Letting bygones be bygones

GDP Forecast

• Negative economic growth will bottom out this year

• The US economy will be back to positive growth by the midterm elections of 2010, and growth rate will be back to normal by the end of 2011

Presidential Approval Ratings

• There is an initial increase in approval ratings during the first two years of each presidential administration.

• Decrease in approval ratings, however not significant enough to be defeated in second election period.

• 3 out of the past 4 incumbent presidents were re-elected.

What do all these Presidents have in common? - They all ran on a populist agenda- They were all re-elected- Generally, they are highly ranked by historians How does this apply to the present?- While the economy is a stronger indicator of success in an election, examining the electoral process have revealed that personality and charisma are also decisive factors; amid reports that the economy is improving, and given the rise of charismatic Republicans, this factor could count for a lot.

Obama in 2012?- At this early stage, the most reasonable thing would be to say yes. We have outlined the most plausible candidates, most of whom lack the charisma, recognition, or broad appeal of the incumbent. Add the improving economy, and a second Obama term is a strong probability.

Obama wins.