Our energy strategy going forward - Hydro.com
Transcript of Our energy strategy going forward - Hydro.com
Our energy
strategy going
forwardArvid Moss
EVP and Head of Energy and Corporate
Business Development
Attractively positioned world-class assets with global reach
North America• Alouette aluminium smelter in
Canada, expansion potential
• Remelting in the US
• 22 extrusion locations***
Brazil• World-class operations and
resource base
• Bauxite and alumina growth projects
• Albras aluminium smelter
Australia• Primary aluminium production
Norway• 1,015,000 tpy hydro-powered
aluminium capacity
• Technology and R&D centers
• 10 TWh normal hydropower production
• Rolled products, recycling and remelting
Continental Europe & UK• Leading midstream and
downstream positions
• Europe’s largest rolled products producer
• Technology and R&D centers
• Recycling network
• 25% extruded products marketshare***
Middle East• Qatalum in production
• Qatalum expansion opportunity
Europe’s
#1aluminiumcompany
World’s
largestaluminarefinery
World’s Largest*hot-rolling
mill
Extrudedproducts
30 %***market share
Top 10smelter
Norway’s
2nd largest hydropower
producer
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Now in a first-quartile position on the industry cost curve
TwoHigh quality
bauxitemines
* Outside China
** Primary Foundry Alloys
*** Sapa JV
Market
LeaderPFA**
Leading performance compared to aluminium peersStrong relative position drives value-creation in challenging markets
Highest underlying payout ratio and dividend yield2010-2014
251 %
181 %
71 %
25 %11 %
Strongest balance sheet,Total Debt/Total Equity, 2010-2014
Peers
74 %
24 %
0 % 0 % 0 %
Hydro
2.5 1.1 0 0 0Dividend
yield, %
First-quartile aluminium producer
Source: ThomsonOne, CRU, company filings
Total debt/Total Equity= (Long Term Debt + Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long
Term Debt) /Equity attributable to shareholders
Dividend yield = Dividend Per Share / Market Price at Year End
Underlying dividend payout ratio = Dividend Per Share / Underlying Earnings Per Share
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
First quartile alumina position
100
200
300
400
500
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
USD/t
USD/t
Aluminium peers included: Alcoa, Century, Chalco, Rusal
Energy represents ~ 1/3 of smelter cost and ~ 50% of the total value
chain cash cost
25%
Primary
Energy
35%
40%
Carbon
15%
Energy
35%
Bauxite
30%
Energy Energy
5%
Alumina
Illustrative figures
Source: CRU
Percentages indicate share of respective input costs globally
Total energy cost: ~50%
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Energy strategic priorities
• Realize full potential of strong
asset base and competencies
• Further improve operational and
commercial performance
• Provide competitive global
energy sourcing and
competence
• Capitalize on strong climate
position over time
• Capture value of the green
certificate scheme in new growth
projects
• Promote responsible energy
policy in the regions where
Hydro operates
• Mature captive growth
opportunities
• Raise income potential from
market operations and
commercial optimization
• Leverage value from Nordic
power surplus
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Energy has a dual mission in HydroStrong, sustainable value creator and energy provider throughout the value chain
To own, operate and maximize
value of Hydro’s energy assets
To provide competitive power sourcing
and global energy competence
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Hydro is second largest hydropower producer in NorwayBut a net buyer of power globally
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Production Consumption
Power production and consumption
in Hydro smelters**
TWh
Norwegian power producers*
ConsumptionProduction
Karmøy pilot
Consumption with full installed capacity
Current consumption
Norway Outside Norway
14 1910 5
~17 ~20
* Equity normal production
** Based on consolidated production in Hydro smelters, mid-2015
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2
0
10
12
6
14
8
42
18
16
Peers Hydro
TWh normal production
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Hydro energy needs are spread across the value chain, global
regions and energy carriers
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North AmericaPower 1.7 TWh
Australia/AsiaPower 1.0 TWh
Middle EastPower 4.6 TWh
South AmericaPower 7.3 TWh
Coal 4.9 TWh
Fuel oil 8.2 TWh
EuropePower 19.6 TWh
Natural gas 3.2 TWh
Hydro’s energy consumption in alumina refineries, smelters and rolling mills
Based on consolidated figures mid-2015
Power Markets
019
Nordic power prices decline over the last yearsDownward trend also reflected in forward curve
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025
EUR / MWh
Historical systemprice Forward Market Jan 2008 Forward Market Jan 2011 Forward Market Jan 2014 Forward Market Jan 2015 Forward Market Jan 2016
Source: Nordpool Spot
Prices expressed in yearly averages
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15
Import Wind Nuclear Thermal
Hydro Normal hydro Demand Price (PLD)
Interconnected Brazilian hydropower-based systemThermal power has increased in importance during recent dry years
Brazilian power balance and price developmentRolling 12 month data
TWh BRL/MWh
Interconnected power system, Brazil
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N
NE
SE
S
Belo Monte
Rio Madeira Teles Pires
*Source: ONS, EPE, ANEEL.
Energy in Hydro
0212
Value creation in Energy dependent on wide array of factors
Power
Price
Expiring
and new
contracts
Sustaining
CAPEX
OPEX &
taxes
CAPEX and
Earnings for
new GWh
Commercial
and operational
competence
Volume
Drivers
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Competitive production costs driven by economies of scale and
operational improvements
Taxes and fees account for a large share of costs, making sustainable framework conditions crucial
Total operating costs for Norwegian power producers*NOK/GWh
Hydro Peers
14%
6%
10%
22%
36%
12%
Property tax
Concession fees and other
Transmission costs
Sustaining capex
Resource rent tax
Opex
Average operating cost, incl. tax/fees, by category2007-2014
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* Based on PA Benchmarking survey
Delivering value from growthDriven by capacity additions, debottlenecking and operating competence
• The normal production in Hydro’s power plants
raised from 9.4 in 2008 to 10 TWh in 2013
− New power plants since 2008
− Holsbru, Vasstøl, and Vigeland acquisition
− Improved power plant efficiency from replacement
of turbine runners
− Improved optimization through competence
− E.g. handling flooding situation to minimize water losses and
ensure safe operations
• Further potential
− New power plants under construction
− Midtlæger, Mannsberg
− Utilizing regulatory frameworks supporting
renewable power generation
− Turbine runners as part of rehabilitations
− Further improving long-term optimization
New power plants
Normal production 2008
Further potential
Normal production 2013
Upgrades and operational
improvements
9,4 TWh
10 TWh
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Sell to a publicly-owned entity Merge into a larger publicly-owned asset with one
or several owners
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3
Energy
production
with RSK
10*
7
21
7
3
Energy
production
w/o RSK
Sell 2/3
Sell 100%
RSK ~3 TWh
NewCo
>= 9 TWh
>= 6 TWh
• Retain full production as part of a larger asset
• Max 1/3 Hydro (private) ownership
• No reversion after such a transaction
• Need partner(s) with min 6 TWh to maintain equity volume
or
Production w/o RSK
Sourcing to compensate for RSK
RSK
The diagrams on this slide are simplified for illustration purposes
* Normal production
TWh
Broad optionality to maintain asset value within the reversion regime
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Merge into a larger publicly-owned asset with one
or several owners
RSK ~3 TWh
NewCo
>= 9 TWh
>= 6 TWh
• Retain full production as part of a larger asset
• Max 1/3 Hydro (private) ownership
• No reversion after such a transaction
• Need partner(s) with min 6 TWh to maintain equity volume
The diagrams on this slide are simplified for illustration purposes
* Normal production
Broad optionality to maintain asset value within the reversion regime
• Law proposal from government on industrial ownership
published 9 November
• Proposal for hydropower JVs:
• Maximum 1/3 private ownership maintained
• Allow private owners access to physical power
• Pro-rata power offtake in line with ownership share
• The new law would allow Hydro to maintain access to
physical power through restructuring RSK assets into 1/3
ownership position in company with liability
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Providing competitive global energy sourcing and competence Commercial competence, analytical capability and market insight
• Execution of hedging strategy
• New power contract secured for 2018-25 for
Rheinwerk smelter
• Gas/power sourcing for rolling mills
• 3.75 TWh power sourcing secured for the
Norwegian smelter portfolio 2021-30
• 330 GWh power sourcing for the Norwegian
smelter portfolio 2031-40
• Fuel switch evaluations
• New power contracts for B&A operations
• Overall energy matrix optimization
• Increased Energy presence in Brazil to lead the
sourcing processes and explore commercial
opportunities
• Norsk Hydro Energia Ltda established as a vehicle
for the power market operations
Lead power sourcing negotiations
Assist with energy sourcing strategies
Analyze energy markets and provide insight
B&A Primary Metal Rolled Products
Optimize power portfolio
Improve security of power supply and manage grid agendas
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Improving smelter cost position with competitive power sourcing
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TWh
Statkraft 6.4 TWh
Other contracts
Current captive
Total consumption at full capacity
Total consumption at full capacity plus Karmøy pilot
Utilizing moderate pricing environment in Norway and abroad
* Net 8 TWh captive assumed available for smelters
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TWh
Rheinwerk Slovalco
Albras Tomago
Alouette Qatalum captive
Total power consumption in smelters at full capacity
** Albras and Slovalco on 100% basis
Sourcing platform for fully-owned smelters, Norway* Sourcing platform for JVs and Rheinwerk smelter**
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Timeframe
• Improve safety performance – injury free environment
• Robust industrial ownership for RSK – maintain physical power offtake post 2022
• Deliver additional production volumes through upgrades/sustaining investments
• Secure new competitive sourcing contracts in Norway post 2020
• Support competitive energy supply as well as energy policy and framework
development for other business areas
TRI <2
3,0 TWh
~0,1 TWh
4-6 TWh
Progress
2020
2022
2020
2020
Continuous
Ambitions Target
Energy mid-term goalsCreating shareholder value by maximizing value of own hydropower assets and ensuring reliable and
competitive energy supply for Hydro
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