Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis Overview (Full)1
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Transcript of Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis Overview (Full)1
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Primavera Risk Analysis
Wesley GilletteSenior Product Manager
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Agenda
• Value of Project Risk Analysis
• Solution Overview
• Summary
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
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Value of Risk Analysis
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© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Who needs Risk Analysis?
• Executives/Program Managers– Need to assess bid viability– Need to assess risk during project selection
• Project Managers/Project Controls– Need to understand the impact of risk on the project schedule
and cost– Need to perform a cost/benefit analysis on mitigation plans– Need to satisfy a contractual/regulatory requirement for risk
analysis
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© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis
• Increased confidence in bids & project selection
• Increased awareness of project assumptions
• Increased project success by enabling better project management
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Solution Overview
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© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Primavera Risk Analysis
• Methodology based risk analysis • Schedule Quality Assessment• Comprehensive Risk Modeling• Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register• Standard Analysis Reports• Scenario Comparison Reports• Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report
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Risk Analysis Methodology
Risk Planning
Risk Identification
Risk Assessment
Risk Response
Risk Reporting
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11, APM PRAM Guide, AS/NZ S4360
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Schedule Quality Assessment
Verify schedule quality by checking for scheduling best
practices
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
A poor quality schedule affects the quality and
reliability of the risk analysis
Select the checks to run against the schedule
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Schedule Quality Assessment
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Creates an interactive report with links to drill
down into the detail
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Risk Modeling
• Estimate Uncertainty– Distributions (e.g. 3pt estimate)– User defined fields– Templates
• Risk Events– Discrete events which may impact the project schedule– Modeled with a probability and impact
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
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Appling Risk Uncertainty to Schedule
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Can note the assumptions & rationale supporting the
assessmentCan assess uncertainty
at a summary level
Apply estimate uncertainty consistently
through the use of templates
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Building Risk Register – Qualitative Assessment
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Priložnosti in nevarnosti
Izdelava in kvalitativna ocena tveganj
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Building Risk Register – Quantitative Assessment
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Then assess risks quantitatively
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Building Risk Register – Linking Risks to Schedule
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Mapiranje vpliva tveganj na aktivnosti in celoten
plan
Kvalitativna ocena tveganj
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© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Building Scenarios & Running the Analysis
Create risk scenarios
Run the analysis and view the reports
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Running the Analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation– Random simulation of probable outcomes– Not a guarantee of what will happen
• Sensitivity Analysis– Identifies what is likely to drive the project schedule
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
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Results – Analyzing Contingency
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
View results for the entire project or selected WBS
or activity
Shows probability of success and contingency
needed
See the impact of risk on project & activity dates
and cost
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Results – Project Drivers
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Criticality Index shows how often activities are on
the critical path
Alternate critical path activities
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Results – Project Drivers
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Displays schedule & cost drivers
(sensitivity analysis)
Drivers can be schedule uncertainty or risk events
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Evaluating Risk Response Plans
• Understand pre-response results
• Develop Risk Response plan
• Analyze
• Cost/Benefit analysis
• Track and report status
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
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Risk Register – Mitigation Planning
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Pre-Mitigation: Current assessment
of the risk
Mitigation: What can be done to reduce the
impact the risk
Post-Mitigation: Assessment of the risk after mitigation
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Results – Updated Contingency
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Evaluate the change in contingency from pre-
mitigated scenario
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© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Results – Scenario Comparison
Primerjava učinkov tveganj in učinkov zmanjševanja tveganj
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Results – Probabilistic Cash Flow
Shows the difference between what was planned
and what is probable
Shows the impact of uncertainty and risks on cash flow and resources Probabilistic spend
curves
25© 2009 Oracle Corporation
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Results – Risk Adjusted Schedule
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Compare deterministic schedule vs. a
probabilistic schedule(e.g. P50 & P80)
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Summary
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
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© 2009 Oracle Corporation
Primavera Risk Analysis
• Methodology based risk analysis • Schedule Quality Assessment• Comprehensive Risk Modeling• Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register• Standard Analysis Reports• Scenario Comparison Reports• Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report
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Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis
• Increased confidence in bids & project selection– Validation of schedule– Appropriate contingency at project level (not activity level)
• Increased awareness of project assumptions– Realistic project schedule– Common understanding of project schedule and risks
• Increased project success by enabling better project management– Understanding of project drivers– Validate risk response plans
© 2009 Oracle Corporation
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