Options on Crop Production for Coping With Climate … 21.13 Pakistan 27.07 Rice, wheat, Maize ......
Transcript of Options on Crop Production for Coping With Climate … 21.13 Pakistan 27.07 Rice, wheat, Maize ......
Options on Crop Production for CopingWith Climate Change in South Asia
Anil Kumar SinghDeputy Director General (NRM)
Indian Council of Agricultural ResearchNew Delhi 110 012
________________________________________________Paper presented at the International Symposium on Climate Change & Food Security in South Asia, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Agriculture profile in South Asia
Country Gross cropped area Million ha
Major Crops Agriculture’s contribution to GDP (%)
India 180.10 Rice, Wheat, Maize, Pulses,Oil crops Sugarcane
21.13
Pakistan 27.07 Rice, wheat, MaizeSugar
22.35
Bangladesh 7.01 Rice, Jute, Maize
21.40
Sri Lanka 2.35 Rice, Tea rubber Coconut
17.81
Nepal 4.22 Wheat, Rice, Maize 40.28
Significant change likely on key parameters with business as usual scenario, eg. India
Year Season Temperature Change (oC)
Rainfall Change (%)
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s AnnualRabiKharif
1.001.080.87
1.411.541.17
2.16-1.95 1.81
5.974.365.10
2050s AnnualRabiKharif
2.232.541.81
2.873.182.37
5.36-9.227.18
9.343.82
10.52
2080s AnnualRabiKharif
3.534.142.91
5.556.314.62
7.48-24.84 10.10
9.90-4.5015.18
Source : Lal M, 2001, Current Science 81, 1205
• Increased temperature, heat waves and cold waves directly affecting the crop performance
• Extreme rainfall events causing more droughts, floods which reduce crop yields and indirectly affect water availability for agriculture
• Inundation of coastal areas with sea water
• Increased incidence of pests and diseases
• Rapid oxidation of soil organic carbon and its effect on soil fertility
Key issues in crop production under climate change scenario in South Asia
Impacts on Crop Production
Scenarios and ImpactsCountry Scenarios Key impacts
Temperature Rainfall
India 0.74o increase last century, pronounced warming during post monsoon and winter
Increased frequency of floodsduring the monsoon and decrease in winter precipitation. Lower number of rainy days
Fast retreat of Himalayan glaciers, frequent floods in IGP.Decrease in LGP and decrease in crop yieldsYield reduction in wheat, rice and maize due to temperature rise
Nepal 0.09oC/yr in Himalayan 0.04oC in Terai region in winter
No distinct long term trends Glacier lake outburst, floods due to glacial meltSoil loss due to floodsIncrease in wheat and maize yields due to temp. rise
Pakistan 0.6o to 1o rise in mean temp. in coastal areas
Increase in summer and winter rainfall in northern Pakistan and 10-15% decrease in coastal belt and arid plains
Wheat and cotton production decrease due to both increased temperature and decreased water availability
Srilanka 0.2oC/year increase in central highlands
Increasing trend in February and decreasing trend in June
More intense floods, increased temperature and prolonged drought spells decrease the coarse grains tea and coconut production
Bangladesh Increasing trend of 1o during summer and 0.5oC in winter
Annual rainfall increase with frequent floods and cyclones
Coastal region inundation, intrusion of sea water, loss of cultivated area. Rice yields to be affected by extreme weather events and salt water(Source: Kelkar and Bhadwal 2007 ; Xianfu Lu, 2007)
Crop water requirements to rise: crop duration to decrease (eg. AP in India)
Station Crop Increase in water requirement (mm)
Reduction in crop duration (weeks)
Anakapalli MaizeGroundnut
51.761.3
11
Anantapur GroundnutRed gram
70.1174.3
11
Jagityal CottonMaize
60.549.0
21
Rajendranagar Red gramGroundnut
114.573.0
21
Tirupathi Groundnut 73.0 1
Prasad Rao et al, 2008
Projected impacts quite complex depending on Combination of factors (eg. Maize in India)
Climate change scenario Good year Bad year Normal yearMaize yield
% Dev.
Maize yield
% dev.
Maize yield
% dev.
No climate change 2132 0 267 0 601 0
Increase in maximum temperature along by 1oC
2265 6.2 236 -11.7 581 -3.2
Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC
2192 2.8 254 -5.0 652 8.5
Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm 2144 0.6 275 2.9 618 2.9
Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm + increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC
2215 3.9 268 0.5 671 11.7
Increase in precipitation by 10% 2367 11.0 376 40.7 1026 70.8
Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC + increase in precipitation by 10%
2528 18.6 359 34.3 1143 90.3
Prasad Rao et al, 2008
Projections of Rice yields as influenced by climate scenarios in SW and NE monsoons periods (eg. Paddy in TamilNadu), using INFOCROP model
Githalakshmi andDheebakaran, 2008
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Influence of different levels of CO2 on growth of Spodoptera litura
Source, CRIDA, Hyderabad, India
Scenarios under most models project negative impacts even on plantation crops (eg. Tea in Sri Lanka)
GCM/Emission Scenario
National production of made-tea (kt) per annum
2025 2050 2100
Baseline 295.24 % 295.24 % 295.24 %
HadCM/A1F1 295.93 0.23 288.10 -2.42 225.45 -23.64
HadCM3/A2 296.30 0.36 291.39 -1.30 236.56 -19.87
HadCM3/B1 295.95 0.24 292.65 -0.88 256.21 -13.22
CGCM/A1F1 292.23 -1.02 286.59 -2.93 235.45 -20.25
CGCM/A2 292.54 -0.91 289.04 -2.10 236.03 -19.38
CGCM/B1 292.05 -1.08 289.92 -1.80 259.54 -12.09
CISIR0/A1F1 300.63 1.82 294.24 -0.34 227.31 -23.01
CISIRO/A2 300.98 1.94 297.09 0.63 235.63 -20.19
CISIRO/B1 300.79 1.88 298.02 0.94 256.40 -13.15
Ratnasiri et al, 2008
Adaptation and Mitigation Measures
Technology related
Policy related
Crop Based Approaches for AdaptationCrop Based Approaches for Adaptation
Crops and varieties that fit into new cropping systems and seasons
Development of varieties with changed duration
Varieties for high temperature, drought, inland salinity and submergence tolerance
Crops and varieties that tolerate coastal salinity and sea water inundation
Varieties which respond to high CO2
Varieties with high fertilizer and radiation use efficiency
Adaptation/Mitigation strategies to match the impact of climate change on crops
Direct effects Strategy
Reduction in durationEmbryo abortionSpikelet sterilityEffects on grain number and grain size
Conventional Breeding and use of biotech tools including MAS
Indirect effects
Decline in water resources
Increased pests and disease incidence
Loss of soil organic C
Conservation and efficient use of waterIPM and IDM
Conservation farming
Search for Genes for Adaptation in Search for Genes for Adaptation in AgricultureAgriculture
• Wild and extant varieties could have traits tolerant to high temperature/elevated CO2 etc.
• May have been discarded in the past due to low yield potential
• Can be used as parents for breeding of tolerant varieties to climate change
• Need for revisiting gene banks with a view to search for unique traits required for climate change
• Indigenous knowledge and farmers wisdom has immense value
Short duration drought tolerant cultivars as an adaptation strategy
Location Crop Variety DurationVaranasi Rice
PigeonpeaVandanaT-21
95150-160
Phulbani Pigeonpea T-21 150-160Arjia Maize Surya 70-75Anantapur Groundnut Vemana 105-110Indore Soybean JS-90-41 87-98Rewa Rice Kalinga-3 110Akola Cotton AKH-081 150-160Bijapur Sunflower KBSH-1 90-95Sholapur Sorghum Mauli 105-110Hisar Pearlmillet HHB-67 60-62Bangalore Fingermillet GPU-26 90-105
Source: CRIDA, Hyderabad, India
Source : CRIDA
Intercropping - a traditional approach for risk management
Intercropping will help in reducing pest incidence by increasingnatural enemy population
Effect of intercropping on Coccinellids
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Standard weeks
Popu
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SDP sole SDP+S
SDP+G SDP+C
MDP sole MDP+S
MDP+G MDP+C
LDP sole LDP+S
LDP+G LDP+C
The in situ culturing of natural enemies lead to reduction of insect pests in diversified crop conditions.
Sorghum, groundnut and blackgram as intercrops with pigeonpea:
Cluster bean, cowpea and greengram with castor reduced the incidence of the insect pests.
These results can go as component of Low External input IPM modules
CRIDAAgro-forestry systems to provide more stable incomes during years of extreme weather events (eg.India)
Neem + CowpeaNeem + Cowpea
Guava + styloGuava + stylo
Faidherbia Albida+SorghumFaidherbia Albida+Sorghum
Mango + GreengramMango + Greengram
Shelter belts for moderating micro climateShelter belts for moderating micro climate
Shelter belts reduce wind velocityShelter belts reduce wind velocity
Moderate temperatureModerate temperature
Reduce evaporative loss and conserve Reduce evaporative loss and conserve soil moisturesoil moisture
Resource Conservation Technologies
Strategies for Efficient Management of Soil, Water and Nutrients
Land use based on land capability
In situ moisture conservation
Rainwater harvesting and recycling
Efficient use of irrigation water
Conservation agriculture
Energy efficiency in agriculture and irrigation
Use of poor quality water
Zero-Tillage Improved Productivity at Less Cost
- -
• Saves Rs.2500/ha in bed preparation• Early sowing improves wheat yield by 5-15% • Saves water (25-30 %)• Reduces Phalaris minor (40-50 %)• Ensures timely planting
Year Area (million ha)
Savings (Rs. in million)
2000-01 0.05 125 2001-02 0.2 500 2002-03 0.3 750 2003-04 1.0 2500 Total (2000-2004) 3875
Source: NATP, Irrigated Ecosystem
Economic benefits of using zero tillage technology from 2000 to 2004
Conventional Raised Bed planting
Bed Planting: A Water-Wise Technology
• 20-25 % Saving in irrigation water
• Opportunity for crop diversification
• Suitable for mechanical weeding & reduces herbicide use
Source: NATP Irrigated Ecosystem
Zero tillage relevant in Peninsular IndiaWarangal (AP) – 10 farmers
Normal Maize Zero Till Maize
Seed rate 7 kg/acre 5kg/acre
Cost of cultivation including shelling
5500 Rs/acre 4200 Rs/acre
Yield 17 q/acre 20 q/acre
Economic returns 11400 Rs/acre 14000 Rs/acre
Profit 6400 Rs/acre 9800 Rs/acre
Source : NAIP, CRIDA
Managing sea water intrusion in coastal areas : Doruvu/Kottai technology
Traditional system Improved system
• Shallow pond
• More land required, Less water stored
• Less water for pumping
• Manually irrigated
• Small area covered
• Deep (upto 20 ft) open well
• Horizontal flow of under ground water enabled in to the well through pipes
• More water stored, less land
• More water to pump and irrigate crops
Ridges and furrows system in cotton in vertisols. Additional yield of 500 kg/ha over farmers’practice
(In situ moisture conservation and drainage)
On Farm Reservoir (OFR) technology in Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand created major impact on drought management
The Government of Chhattisgarh included this technology in the drought relief programme
On farm water harvesting
Source : NATP, CRIDA
System of Rice Intensification (SRI) – a water saving method relevant for SA countries
Attribute SRI Non SRIEffective Tillers/Total 31/32 12/13
Grains/Panicle 146 92
Yield(t/ha) 8.5 5.5
Cost of cultivation(Rs)
15578* 16500
*includes costs of weeder & marker
Traditional method
SRI method
Integrated Nutrient Management to reduce emissions in paddy eg: India
Treatment Rice yield t/ha
Denitrifi-cationLosses kg/ha
N2O Emissions kg/ha
Nitrate Leaching kg/ha
Soil Organic-C g/kg
Control 3.4 18 6.9 59 3.7
120 kg N/ha
5.6 58 12.4 94 3.7
GM20+ 32 kg N/ha
5.9 50 11.8 78 4.1
CR6+GM20+ 32 kg N/ha
5.9 52 11.8 - 4.9
LSD (0.05) 0.2 6 3.4 12 0.4
Source : CRRI, CuttakCR: Crop residue, GM: Green manure
Policy Interventions
• Redesigning social sector schemes with focus on vulnerable areas/ populations
• Introduction of new credit instruments with deferred repayment during extreme weather events
• Weather based insurance
• Incentives to farmers for adopting resource conservation
• Promoting cooperation and exchange information with countries of South Asia
Thank you