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OPTIMA OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Resources Management The Case of the Gediz River in Turkey 18-19 May 2006 Gumpoldskirchen Slide 2 OPTIMA 2 Gediz Basin Izmir Istanbul Population: 1.700.000 Extent: 17600 km 2 Current water demand Agriculture 39 mm (695 MCM) Industry 3 mm (54 MCM) Environ.Wetl and 0.2 mm (3.6 MCM) Domestic 7.4 mm (133 MCM Current water supply Surface 52 mm (940 MCM) Ground 9 mm (160 MCM) Treated Not Available Rainfall 700 mm Water Supply: 1100 MCM 647 m 3 per capita Water Demand: 886 MCM 521 m 3 per capita Slide 3 OPTIMA 3 LAKES, RESERVOIRS and WEIRS Slide 4 OPTIMA 4 Demographic Change Basin Population +1.5 % /year [1 100 000(1970)1 700 000 (2000)] Urban population +2% /year Rural population -0.7% /year INTERNAL MIGRATION RURAL TO URBAN: RAPID URBANIZATION Slide 5 OPTIMA 5 Land Use Change UUrban Areas+2% /year IIndustrial Areas+10% /year 335% increase in urban and industrial areas in 13 YEARS! INCREASING WATER DEMAND: COMPETITION AMONG USERS Industrial Areas Kemalpasa Manisa Menemen Slide 6 OPTIMA 6 KEY ISSUES PHYSICAL CONDITIONS: - Watershed Degradation - Water Scarcity - Droughts WATER MANAGEMENT: - Education and Awareness - Institutional Framework: - Institutional Responsibilities - Active Participation Slide 7 OPTIMA 7 WATER DEMAND: - Agriculture - Surface Water Demands - Groundwater Demands - Industry: - Surface Water Pollution by Industry WATER SUPPLY: - Quality: - Surface Water Quality - Groundwater Quality - Infrastructures: - Sanitation: Sewers and Treatment KEY ISSUES Slide 8 OPTIMA 8 Domestic demand0.15 mm/year, 2% Industrial demand0.3 mm/year, 10% KEY ISSUES Supply (61mm) Demand (49.6mm) Slide 9 OPTIMA 9 Discharges Water Quality 60% ofSurface Water 30%ofGround Water POLLUTED, USE WITH CARE!! W. Q. CLASS IV (acc. Turkish W.Q.C. Standards) Slide 10 OPTIMA 10 Slide 11 OPTIMA 11 GIS DATA (WP05) (Composite, LANDSAT) Slide 12 OPTIMA 12 GIS DATA (WP05) (DEM, SRTM) Slide 13 OPTIMA 13 GIS DATA (WP05) (River Network) Slide 14 OPTIMA 14 GIS DATA (WP05) (Settlements) Slide 15 OPTIMA 15 GIS DATA (WP05) (Road Network) Slide 16 OPTIMA 16 GIS DATA (WP05) (Flow Stations) Slide 17 OPTIMA 17 GIS DATA (WP05) (Meteo. Stations) Slide 18 OPTIMA 18 GIS DATA (WP05) (Landuse) Slide 19 OPTIMA 19 Topological View of the Recent Baseline Gediz Scenario Demirkopru Buldan Marmara Lake Alasehir Irrig. Ahmetli Irrig. Adala Irrig. Menemen Irrig. Wetland Nif Tributary Kumcay Tributary Gordes Tributary Afsar Bay of Izmir Slide 20 OPTIMA 20 RESERVOIRS AFSAR BULDAN MARMARA DEMIRKOPRU Bay of Izmir YIGITLER? GORDES? Slide 21 OPTIMA 21 River Basin Objects Reservoirs: 1) Demirkopru: supplies irrigation water, flood prevention, energy production during the irrigation season. 2) Afsar: provides irrigation water to Alasehir lowlands. 3) Buldan: provides irrigation water to Alasehir lowlands. 4) Marmara Lake 5) Gordes (under construction): supplies domestic water for the city of Izmir in addition to providing irrigation water within the basin. 6) Yigitler (under construction): supplies industrial water for the industrial district of Kemalpasa. WATERWARE STUDIES Slide 22 OPTIMA 22 Alasehir Irrig. Ahmetli Irrig. Adala Irrig. Menemen Irrig. Wetland Bay of Izmir Kemalpasa Ind. Zone Manisa Org. Ind. Zone Menemen Leather Ind. Comlekci Adala Ahmetli Emiralem IRRIG. DISTRICTS,WEIRS,IND. ZONES and WETLAND Slide 23 OPTIMA 23 River Basin Objects Irrigation Districts : 1) Adala Left Bank 2) Adala Right Bank 3) Ahmetli Left Bank 4) Ahmetli Right Bank 5) Menemen Left Bank 6) Menemen Right Bank 7) Sarigol 8) Alasehir Diversions: 1)Adala Weir 2)Ahmetli Weir 3)Emiralem Weir 4)Buldan Weir 5)Comlekci Weir Industrial Districts: 1)Manisa Ind. Zone 2)Kemalpasa Ind. Zone 3)Memenen Leather Ind. Wetland: 1)Izmir Bird Paradise Slide 24 OPTIMA 24 Irrigation District Area (ha) (min-max) Cotton (%) Maize (%) Grape (%) Vegetables (%) Fruits (%) Cereals (%) Adala Left Bank Irr. 5100-7000030635-2 Adala Right Bank Irr. 5500-66002530403-2 Ahmetli Left Bank Irr. 13000-161005186359- Ahmetli Right Bank Irr. 12500-170001725544-- Menemen Left Bank Irr. 13000-1420056253529 Menemen Right Bank Irr. 4900-58003026718415 Sarigol Irr.890-1100--100--- Alasehir Irr. 6800-8400--100--- Slide 25 OPTIMA 25 Crop Yield (kg/ha)Average Price (EU/kg) Cotton4027.50.68 Grape48050.88 Maize80350.17 Vegetables264600.39 Cereals6367.50.34 Fruits?? Water Supply Ratio (%)Decrease in Yield (%) 804 708 6015 5023 Yields and Average Farmers Prices of Crops Slide 26 OPTIMA 26 District BOD loads (kg/day) Industrial Kemalpasa Industrial Zone4255 Manisa Org. Ind. Zone8667 Menemen Leather Industrial4833 Daily BOD Loads of Industrial Discharges Source: Nen Eng.&Cons., December 2001 Slide 27 OPTIMA 27 SUBCATCHMENTS and SETTLEMENTS Turgutlu Alasehir Salihli Golmarmara Saruhanli Menemen Kemalpasa Akhisar Ahmetli Bay of Izmir Buldan AfsarDeliinis Gordes Medar Yigitler Nif Slide 28 OPTIMA 28 River Basin Objects Settlements : 1) Manisa (Gov. Centre) 2) Akhisar 3) Salihli 4) Turgutlu 5) Kemalpasa 6) Menemen 7) Saruhanli 8) Alasehir 9) Izmir 10) Golmarmara 11) Ahmetli Subcatchments: 1)Demirkopru Upstream 2)Buldan Upstream 3)Afsar Upstream 4)Medar 5)Nif 6)Gordes 7)Yigitler Aquifers: 1)Salihli-Turgutlu 2)Menemen 3)Sarikiz 4)Alasehir Slide 29 OPTIMA 29 Name of the Settlement1990 Pop.2000 Pop.qHY, l/ca/day **m3/daym3/s Akhisar7394481510170138570.16 Salihli7086183137170141330.16 Turgutlu7363493727170159340.18 Manisa, Center158928214345200428690.50 Kemalpasa163542544810025450.03 Menemen290064607912055290.06 Saruhanli129771302510013030.02 Golmarmara109761120510011210.01 Alasehir366493959012047510.05 Ahmetli101901101110011010.01 PopulationqHY, l/ca/day 5 000 - 10 00080 10 000 - 30 000100 30 000 - 50 000120 50 000 - 100 000170 > 100 000200 ** Values from Bank of Provinces Domestic Demand of Settlements Slide 30 OPTIMA 30 Municipality BOD loads (kg/day) Salihli2772 Menemen1115 Golmarmara379 Turgutlu3100 Alasehir1093 Saruhanli2247 Akhisar1866 Ahmetli1321 Manisa2222 Kemalpasa712 BOD Loads of Domestic Returns of Settlements Source: Nen Eng.&Cons., December 2001 Slide 31 OPTIMA 31 The aquifers identified in WaterWare (WRM) and their parameters. The Name of the Aquifer ParameterAlasehirMenemen Salihli- Turgutlu Sarikiz Area (km2)9403001200600 Average depth (m)80 9080 Porosity (%)15 Percolation loss coefficient 0000 Deg. day coefficient1e-05 Recharge coefficient0.75 0.700.65 Slide 32 OPTIMA 32 WaterWare Modeling Studies Water Budget Slide 33 OPTIMA 33 Slide 34 OPTIMA 34 Slide 35 OPTIMA 35 Slide 36 OPTIMA 36 Slide 37 OPTIMA 37 Slide 38 OPTIMA 38 Slide 39 OPTIMA 39 RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS AFSAR BULDAN MARMARA DEMIRKOPRU Bay of Izmir YIGITLER? GORDES? Slide 40 OPTIMA 40 WaterWare Modeling Studies Water Quality Slide 41 OPTIMA 41 Slide 42 OPTIMA 42 Slide 43 OPTIMA 43 Kemalpasa Ind.and Dom. Discharges Slide 44 OPTIMA 44 Pollution Sources emphasized in Stakeholder meeting: Kemalpasa Industrial District Kemalpasa Industrial District Kemalpasa Municipalitys domestic discharge Kemalpasa Municipalitys domestic discharge Salihli, Akhisar, Turgutlu, Ahmetli Municipalities have treatment plants but they are not operated properly Salihli, Akhisar, Turgutlu, Ahmetli Municipalities have treatment plants but they are not operated properly Slide 45 OPTIMA 45 Economic Data Compilation Slide 46 OPTIMA 46 Irrigation Districts Capital Cost (/yearly) Fixed O/M Costs (/yearly) Fixed O/M Costs (/monthly) Use Benefit (/m3) Shortfall Cost (/m3) Adala Left Bank Irr. ??253091210910.620.3 Adala Right Bank Irr. ??140593117160.480.23 Ahmetli Left Bank Irr. ??306447255370.770.32 Ahmetli Right Bank Irr. ??479559399630.50.23 Menemen Left Bank Irr. ??376867314060.320.12 Menemen Right Bank Irr. ??192484160400.450.14 Sarigol Irr. ??4131034420.590.22 Alasehir Irr. ??289283241071.10.43 *** The operational costs of diversion structures are considered in fixed o/m costs BASIC ECO-DATA OF IRRIGATION DISTRICTS Slide 47 OPTIMA 47 BASIC ECO-DATA OF IRRIGATION DISTRICTS Acatay, 2001; E. Hansen et. al. Slide 48 OPTIMA 48 BASIC ECO-DATA OF IRRIGATION DISTRICTS Supply/Demand (daily) Yield decrease Average Yield Decrease Water Supply Ratio (%)Decrease in Yield (%) 804 708 6015 5023 Source: Akinci, 2004; Min. of Aggriculture and Rural Affaires Slide 49 OPTIMA 49 BASIC ECO-DATA OF IRRIGATION DISTRICTS Calculation of Use Benefit and Shortfall Cost: Use benefit = Yield (kg/ha) x Market price (/kg) x Area (ha) / Demand (m 3 ) Shortfall Cost; Expected irrigation income through irrigation (EII)= (Total expected income) x 0.6 (without irrigation crops still yield!, the figure may be argued) The real income increase (RII) = EII x (relative yield reduction due to limited irr.) Shortfall of income = EII RII Shortfall Cost = (EII RII) / (Total Demand - Total Supply) Slide 50 OPTIMA 50 Settlements Capital Cost (/yearly) Fixed O/M Costs (/yearly) Fixed O/M Costs (/monthly) Use Benefit (/m3) Shortfall Cost (/m3) Akhisar?? Almost 60% of Collected Fees 1 Salihli??1 Turgutlu??1 Manisa, Center??1.5 Kemalpasa??0.8 Menemen??0.8 Saruhanli??0.4 Golmarmara??0.4 Alasehir??0.6 Ahmetli??0.6 BASIC ECO-DATA OF SETTLEMENTS Slide 51 OPTIMA 51 RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS AFSAR BULDAN MARMARA DEMIRKOPRU Bay of Izmir YIGITLER? Slide 52 OPTIMA 52 COSTS INCOME YIGITLER DAM ANNUAL INV (/year) O/M (/year) ELECTRICITY (/year) Exp. INCOME ( /year) DAM2,531,851149,975 IRRIGATION1,014,431316,909 1,799,32 6 IND. WATER SUPPLY541,219115,145518,358 24,113,9 63 TREATMENT597,393124,912 RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS Slide 53 OPTIMA 53 RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS AFSAR BULDAN MARMARA DEMIRKOPRU Bay of Izmir GORDES? Slide 54 OPTIMA 54 RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS COSTS INCOME GORDES DAM (/year) ANNUAL INV (/year) O/M (/year) ELECTRICITY (/year) INCOME (/m 3 ) DAM87,373,043597,450 IRRIGATION7,477,6861,382,716 DOM. WATER SUPPLY7,660,81976,608 1 to 1.5 Slide 55 OPTIMA 55 TREATMENT PLANT INVESTMENTS Treatment plant (s) for KEMALPASA INDUSTRIAL ZONE: Annual Investment Cost (Capital Cost): 90 924 /year Fixed O/M Cost : 19012 /year Slide 56 OPTIMA 56 PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RESULTS OF 1991 BASELINE SCENARIO Slide 57 OPTIMA 57 INTRODUCED WATER TECHNOLOGIES TO DB Slide 58 OPTIMA 58 INTRODUCED WATER TECHNOLOGIES TO DB Slide 59 OPTIMA 59 INTRODUCED WATER TECHNOLOGIES TO DB Slide 60 OPTIMA 60 WORKS IN PROGRESS The O/M data of existing reservoirs have been demanded from DSI, The income, shortfall and O/M costs for settlements water distribution system have been demanded from IZSU, The results of Issues Questionaire analysis are expected from FEEM. Slide 61 OPTIMA 61 WORKS TO DO Decide water technologies to be used, Complete the compilation of missing economic data, Start with optimization regarding the results of Stakeholders Meeting Slide 62 OPTIMA 62 THANK YOU!