OPTIMA OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Resources Management Turkish Case Study: Gediz...
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Transcript of OPTIMA OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Resources Management Turkish Case Study: Gediz...
OPTIMA
OPTIMAOptimisation for Sustainable Water
Resources Management
Turkish Case Study: Gediz River
19-20 December 2006
Milano
OPTIMA
Gediz Basin
Izmir
Istanbul
Extent: 17600 km2
Current water demand
Agriculture39 mm(695 MCM)
Industry3 mm(54 MCM)
Environ.Wetland0.2 mm(3.6 MCM)
Domestic
7.4 mm(133 MCM
Current water supply
Surface52 mm(940 MCM)
Ground9 mm (160 MCM)
TreatedNot Available
Rainfall700 mm
Water Supply: 1100 MCM
647 m3 per capita
Water Demand: 886 MCM
521 m3 per capita
Population: 1.700.000
OPTIMA
LAKES, RESERVOIRS and WEIRS
OPTIMA
Demographic ChangeBasin Population +1.5 % /year [1 100 000(1970) 1 700 000 (2000)]
Urban population +2% /yearRural population -0.7% /year
INTERNAL MIGRATION RURAL TO URBAN: RAPID URBANIZATION
OPTIMA
Land Use Change Urban Areas +2% /year Industrial Areas +10% /year 35% increase in urban and industrial areas in 13 YEARS!
INCREASING WATER DEMAND: COMPETITION AMONG USERS
Industrial Areas
Kemalpasa
Manisa
Menemen
OPTIMA
KEY ISSUES
PHYSICAL CONDITIONS:
- Watershed Degradation
- Water Scarcity
- Droughts
WATER MANAGEMENT:
- Education and Awareness
- Institutional Framework:
- Institutional Responsibilities
- Active Participation
OPTIMA
WATER DEMAND:
- Agriculture
- Surface Water Demands
- Groundwater Demands
- Industry:
- Surface Water Pollution by Industry
WATER SUPPLY:
- Quality:
- Surface Water Quality
- Groundwater Quality
- Infrastructures:
- Sanitation: Sewers and Treatment
KEY ISSUES
OPTIMA
OPTIMA
Domestic demand 0.15 mm/year, 2%
Industrial demand 0.3 mm/year, 10%
KEY ISSUES
Supply (61mm) Demand (49.6mm)
OPTIMA
DischargesDischarges
Water Quality
60% of Surface Water
30% of Ground WaterW. Q. CLASS IV(acc. Turkish W.Q.C. Standards)
“POLLUTED, USE WITH CARE!!”
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Stakeholder and Dissemination Activities
OPTIMA
OPTIMA
• Seminar is carried out by SUMER in DEU Faculty of Engineering building in Tinaztepe Campus.
• The stakeholders, participated in II. Stakeholder meeting held in 19-20 April 2006 are re-invited.
• Total number of participants was 30 from different institutions.
• The outcomes of WRM Modeling and optimisation strategies are presented and discussed.
DISSEMINATION ACTIVITY: SEMINAR ON OPTIMA PROJECT
November 29, 2006 İzmir
OPTIMA
INSTITUTION TYPE
Soil and Water Resources Research Institute (2)
Governmental Research
Izmir Bird Paradise Protection and Development Union (1)
NGO
DSI 2nd Directorate (5) Governmental Planning
GEMA (2) NGO
Aegean Forest Foundation (1) NGO
Aegean Forestry Research Institute (4) Governmental Research
THAEM (Agro-hydrology Research Center) (3) Governmental Research
IZSU (4) Municipality
Province Agricultural Directorate (2) Governmental Research
Province Directorate of Environment and Forestry (1)
Governmental Monitoring
DEU (5) University
OPTIMA
In scope of the seminar, two questionnaires have been filled by participants.
1. The general objectives and the constraints;
2. The importance levels of the indicators on physical conditions, water management, demand and supply, in other words, the determination of priorities and trends.
(Re-evaluation of the results on priorities of issues obtained in previous meeting)
DISSEMINATION ACTIVITY: SEMINAR ON OPTIMA PROJECT
November 29, 2006 İzmir
OPTIMA
CONCEPTMIN & MAX
VALUEDSI
Point of view
Overall Supply / Demand ratio > 70-95 % > 90 %
Reliability of supply (average over all nodes/days)
> 70-95 % > 90 %
Benefit / Cost ratio > 0.8-2 > 1.5
Economical efficiency (direct) 0.10-0.7 €/ m3 0.5 €/ m3
Economical efficiency (indirect) 0.08-0.9 €/ m3 0.35 €/ m3
Net benefit (direct or indirect) 960-1200 €/ ca 1000 €/ ca
Cost of water (direct) 0.10-0.7 €/ m3 0.4 €/ m3
Cost of water (indirect) 0.08-0.7 €/ m3 0.25 €/ m3
QUESTIONAIRE : CONSTRAINTS
OPTIMA
PHYSICAL CONDITIONS
1 WATERSHED DEGRADATION
2 GROUNDWATER QUANTITY, QUALITY
3 WATER SCARCITY
4 DROUGHTS
WATER MANAGEMENT
1 EDUCATION AND AWARENESS
2 Institutional responsibilities
3 Active participation
4 Obsolete technologies, maintenance
QUESTIONAIRE : KEY ISSUES AND PRIORITIES
OPTIMA
WATER DEMAND
1 Surface water demands
2 Groundwater demands
3 Surface water pollution by agriculture
4 Water technologies (irrigation efficiency)
WATER SUPPLY
1 Groundwater quality
2 Surface water quality
3 Limits to agricultural use
4 Abstraction, reservoirs, water harvesting
QUESTIONAIRE : KEY ISSUES AND PRIORITIES
OPTIMA
TELEVISION AND RADIO INTERVIEWS, PRESS RELEASES
OPTIMA
Waterware Studies:
Model Topology and Construction
OPTIMA
Topological View of the Baseline Gediz Scenario
Demirkopru Buldan
Marmara Lake
Alasehir Irrig.
Ahmetli Irrig.
Adala Irrig.
Menemen Irrig.Wetland
Nif Tributary
Kumcay Tributary
Gordes Tributary Afsar
Bay of Izmir
OPTIMA
Topological View of the Future Gediz Scenario
Demirkopru Buldan
Marmara Lake
Alasehir Irrig.
Ahmetli Irrig.
Adala Irrig.
Menemen Irrig.Wetland
Nif Tributary
Kumcay Tributary
Gordes Tributary Afsar
Bay of Izmir
YIGITLER RES.
GORDES RES.
OPTIMA
RESERVOIRS
AFSARBULDAN
MARMARA
DEMIRKOPRU
Bay of Izmir
OPTIMA
GORDES
YIGITLER
AFSARBULDAN
MARMARA
DEMIRKOPRU
RESERVOIRS
OPTIMA
Reservoirs:
1) Demirkopru: supplies irrigation water, flood prevention, energy production during the irrigation season.
2) Afsar: provides irrigation water to Alasehir lowlands.
3) Buldan: provides irrigation water to Alasehir lowlands.
4) Marmara Lake
5) Gordes (under construction): supplies domestic water for the city of Izmir in addition to providing irrigation water within the basin.
6) Yigitler (under construction): supplies industrial water for the industrial district of Kemalpasa.
OPTIMA
Alasehir Irrig.
Ahmetli Irrig.
Adala Irrig.
Menemen Irrig.
Wetland
Bay of Izmir
Kemalpasa Ind. Zone
Manisa Org. Ind. Zone
Menemen Leather Ind.
Comlekci
Adala
Ahmetli
Emiralem
IRRIG. DISTRICTS,WEIRS,IND. ZONES and WETLAND
OPTIMA
River Basin Objects
Irrigation Districts :
1) Adala Left Bank
2) Adala Right Bank
3) Ahmetli Left Bank
4) Ahmetli Right Bank
5) Menemen Left Bank
6) Menemen Right Bank
7) Sarigol
8) Alasehir
Diversions:
1) Adala Weir
2) Ahmetli Weir
3) Emiralem Weir
4) Buldan Weir
5) Comlekci Weir
Industrial Districts:
1) Manisa Ind. Zone
2) Kemalpasa Ind. Zone
3) Memenen Leather Ind.
Wetland:
1) Izmir Bird Paradise
OPTIMA
Irrigation District
Area (ha)(min-max)
Cotton (%)
Maize (%)
Grape (%)
Vegetables (%)
Fruits (%)
Cereals (%)
Adala Left Bank Irr.
5100-7000 0 30 63 5 - 2
Adala Right Bank Irr.
5500-6600 25 30 40 3 - 2
Ahmetli Left Bank Irr.
13000-16100 5 18 63 5 9 -
Ahmetli Right Bank Irr.
12500-17000 17 25 54 4 - -
Menemen Left Bank Irr.
13000-14200 56 25 3 5 2 9
Menemen Right Bank Irr.
4900-5800 30 26 7 18 4 15
Sarigol Irr. 890-1100 - - 100 - - -
Alasehir Irr. 6800-8400 - - 100 - - -
OPTIMA
CropCrop Yield (kg/ha) Average Price (EU/kg)
Cotton 4027.5 0.68
Grape 4805 0.88
Maize 8035 0.17
Vegetables 26460 0.39
Cereals 6367.5 0.34
Fruits ? ?
Water Supply Ratio (%) Decrease in Yield (%)
80 4
70 8
60 15
50 23
Yields and Average Farmer’s Prices of Crops
OPTIMA
SUBCATCHMENTS and SETTLEMENTS
Turgutlu
AlasehirSalihliGolmarmara
Saruhanli
Menemen
Kemalpasa
Akhisar Ahmetli
Bay of Izmir
Buldan AfsarDeliinis
Gordes
MedarYigitler
Nif
OPTIMA
River Basin Objects Settlements :
1) Manisa (Gov. Centre)
2) Akhisar
3) Salihli
4) Turgutlu
5) Kemalpasa
6) Menemen
7) Saruhanli
8) Alasehir
9) Izmir
10) Golmarmara
11) Ahmetli
Subcatchments:
1) Demirkopru Upstream
2) Buldan Upstream
3) Afsar Upstream
4) Medar
5) Nif
6) Gordes
7) Yigitler
Aquifers:
1) Salihli-Turgutlu
2) Menemen
3) Sarikiz
4) Alasehir
OPTIMA
Name of the Settlement 1990 Pop. 2000 Pop. qHY, l/ca/day ** m3/day m3/s
Akhisar 73944 81510 170 13857 0.16
Salihli 70861 83137 170 14133 0.16
Turgutlu 73634 93727 170 15934 0.18
Manisa, Center 158928 214345 200 42869 0.50
Kemalpasa 16354 25448 100 2545 0.03
Menemen 29006 46079 120 5529 0.06
Saruhanli 12977 13025 100 1303 0.02
Golmarmara 10976 11205 100 1121 0.01
Alasehir 36649 39590 120 4751 0.05
Ahmetli 10190 11011 100 1101 0.01
Population qHY, l/ca/day
5 000 - 10 000 80
10 000 - 30 000 100
30 000 - 50 000 120
50 000 - 100 000 170
> 100 000 200
** Values from Bank of Provinces
Domestic Demand of Settlements
OPTIMA
The aquifers identified in WaterWare (WRM) and their parameters.
The Name of the Aquifer
Parameter Alasehir Menemen Salihli-Turgutlu Sarikiz
Area (km2) 940 300 1200 600
Average depth (m) 80 80 90 80
Porosity (%) 15 15 15 15
Percolation loss coefficient 0 0 0 0
Deg. day coefficient 1e-05 1e-05 1e-05 1e-05
Recharge coefficient 0.75 0.75 0.70 0.65
OPTIMA
WaterWare Modeling Studies:
Water Budget
OPTIMA
Four different scenarios for Water Resources Model are considered:
• Gediz Baseline with historical year of 1991 (dry year): GEDIZ_BL_1991
• Gediz Baseline with historical year of 1982 (normal year): GEDIZ_BL_1982
• Gediz Future 1991 (with two new reservoirs): gediz future 1991
• Gediz Future 1982 (with two new reservoirs): gediz future 1982
OPTIMA
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Economic Data Compilation
OPTIMA
BASIC ECO-DATA OF IRRIGATION DISTRICTS
Irrigation DistrictsFixed O/M
Costs (€/month)
Use Benefit (€/m3)
Shortfall Cost
(€/m3)
Variable cost
(€/m3)
Adala Left 21091 0.37 0.3 0.222
Adala Right 11716 0.29 0.23 0.174
Ahmetli Left 25537 0.46 0.32 0.276
Ahmetli Right 39963 0.30 0.23 0.18
Menemen Left 31406 0.19 0.12 0.114
Menemen Right 16040 0.27 0.14 0.162
Sarigol 3442 0.35 0.22 0.21
Alasehir 24107 0.66 0.43 0.396
OPTIMA
BASIC ECO-DATA OF SETTLEMENTS
SettlementDemand (m3/s)
Fixed O/M
Costs (€/month)
Fixed Pumping
Costs (€/month)
Pumping Cost
(€/m3)
Domestic Network
Cost (€/m3)
Use Benefit (€/m3)
Shortfall Cost
(€/m3)
Akhisar 0.16 7200 2400 0.027 0.009 1 0.1
Salihli 0.17 7200 2400 0.027 0.009 1 0.1
Turgutlu 0.18 7800 2400 0.027 0.009 1 0.1
Manisa, Center
0.53 16200 4800 0.027 0.009 1.2 0.15
Kemalpasa 0.027 3000 1200 0.027 0.009 0.9 0.1
Menemen 0.06 6000 1800 0.027 0.009 0.9 0.1
Saruhanli 0.015 1800 600 0.027 0.009 0.8 0.08
Golmarmara 0.013 1800 600 0.027 0.009 0.8 0.07
Alasehir 0.05 4200 1200 0.027 0.009 1 0.1
Ahmetli 0.013 1800 600 0.027 0.009 0.8 0.08
OPTIMA
RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS
AFSARBULDAN
MARMARA
DEMIRKOPRU
Bay of Izmir
YIGITLER
GORDES
OPTIMA
RESERVOIRS INVESTMENTS
ANNUAL INV (€/year)
O/M (€/month)
Shortfall cost
Variable cost
Use benefit(€/m3)
YIGITLER DAM 2,531,851 149,975Industrial Supply 1,138,610 63,201 2.5872.587
Irrigation 1,014,431 26,409 -- - 0.2920.292
GORDES DAM 87,373,043 49,788
Domestic Supply
7,660,819 6384 1.251.25
Irrigation 7,477,686 115,226 0.10.1 0.10.1 0.30.3
OPTIMA
Economical Assessment of WRM Scenarios
OPTIMA
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Introduced Water Technologies To DB
OPTIMA
OPTIMA
Irrigation District
AreaAnnual Investment
Cost (€ / year)
Operational Cost
(€ / year)
Adala LB 6150 1,810,167 181,796
Adala RB 6300 1,854,318 186,230
Sarıgöl 1000 294,336 29,560
Alaşehir 7500 2,207,521 221,702
Ahmetli RB 14750 4,341,458 436,014
Ahmetli LB 14550 4,282,591 430,102
Menemen RB 5250 1,545,265 155,192
Menemen LB 14200 4,179,573 419,756
100% implementation
OPTIMA
OPTIMA
Irrigation District
AreaAnnual Investment
Cost (€ / year)
Operational Cost
(€ / year)
Adala LB 6150 1609 1304
Adala RB 6300 1648 1336
Sarıgöl 1000 262 212
Alaşehir 7500 1962 1591
Ahmetli RB 14750 3859 3129
Ahmetli LB 14550 3807 3086
Menemen RB 5250 1374 1114
Menemen LB 14200 3715 3012
100% implementation
OPTIMA
OPTIMA
Settlement PopulationAnnual Investment
Cost (€ / year)
Operational Cost
(€ / year)
Akhisar 81510 1331 1103
Salihli 83137 1358 1125
Turgutlu 93727 1530 1268
Manisa, Center 214345 3500 2900
Kemalpasa 25448 416 344
Menemen 46079 752 623
Saruhanli 13025 213 176
Golmarmara 11205 183 152
Alasehir 39590 646 536
Ahmetli 11011 180 149
100% implementation
OPTIMA
OPTIMA
Settlement HouseholdAnnual Investment Cost
(€ / year)
Akhisar 21507 645,198
Salihli 22903 687,083
Turgutlu 24094 722,830
Manisa, Center 57159 1,714,760
Kemalpasa 6362 190,860
Menemen 12288 368,632
Saruhanli 3240 97,201
Golmarmara 2541 76,224
Alasehir 10936 328,094
Ahmetli 2905 87,158
100% implementation
OPTIMA
Optimization Model and DMC Results
OPTIMA
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WORKS TO DO
Discuss and introduce new possible water technologies to be
used,
Running the optimization scenarios for other WRM scenarios:
GEDIZ_BL_1991, gediz future 1991, gediz future 1982
(copy function?),
Evaluate and disseminate obtained results with some
stakeholders like DSI (Another final ? Stakeholder meeting) in
order to let them review their constraints and expected
performance from the river system.
OPTIMA
THANK YOU!