Opportunities in climate change and environmental securityJ. Scott Hauger, Ph.D.APCSS

Pacific Operational Science and Technology Conference:S&T Opportunities to Strengthen the Asia-Pacific26 August 2014

Image source: NPR

Climate change … creates both a need and an opportunity for nations to work together….

QDR 2014, p. 25

Theme

Sources

Agenda• The security threat of climate change• Knowledge needs to address the threat• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific

Agenda• The security threat of climate change• Knowledge needs to address the threat• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidification

Flooding Jakarta, Indonesia January 18, 2014.Image source: Wall Street Journal

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidificationTyphoon Heiyan, Tacloban, Philippines

November, 2013.Image source: The Guardian:

Kevin Frayer/Getty Images AsiaPac

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidificationMele, MaldivesOct, 2013Source: BBC

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidificationNepal, Imja ValleyImage source: T. BolchSciTech Daily, 20 Apr 2012

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidification

Dust Sorm, SW Asia, March 19, 2012.Image source: US NASA

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidificationGobi region, Mongolia, 2011Image source: Witnessimage

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidification Siberia, Russia, 2011Source: NBCNews.com

Environmental impacts of climate change:

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• Higher ocean temperatures.– Evaporation, precipitation.– Tropical cyclones.– Rising sea levels.

• Higher air temperatures.– Ice melt / snow runoff.– More extreme weather

• Higher ground temperatures– Desertification.– Permafrost melting.

• Ocean acidification

Coral reef bleaching 2012West Papua, IndonesiaImage credit: Keith Ellenbogen

Climate change and security

•Rising sea levels

•Tropical cyclones

•More floods

•More droughts

•Riverine erosion

•Freshwater access

•Food production

•Infrastructure destruction

•Disease outbreak

•Migration14

Climate ImpactsHuman SecurityImpacts

•Conflict over:

• Blame

• Resources

• Migration

• Maritime boundaries

•Increased stress on weak governments

State Security Impacts

National Research Council Findings

• Expect increasingly more serious climate surprises in the coming decade.

• Essential for the intelligence community to understand adaptation and changes to vulnerability to climate events.

• Prudent to expect some climate events that exceed the capacity of affected societies to manage.

OSD AssessmentThe impacts of climate change may increase the frequency, scale, and complexity of future missions, including defense support to civil authorities, while at the same time undermining the capacity of our domestic installations to support training activities. Our actions to increase energy and water security, including investments in energy efficiency, new technologies, and renewable energy sources, will increase the resiliency of our installations and help mitigate these effects.

---QDR 2014, p. vi

DSB Findings: Role for DoD • Build regional capabilities and alliances to

create climate change resilience.

• Prepare to respond to natural disasters.

• Assist foreign militaries to understand climate change effects on force structure, installations, and security.

• Build capacity for mitigation & adaptation.

Agenda• The security threat of climate change• Knowledge needs to address the threat• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific

Knowledge needs: NRC/NAS

• Improve ability to quantify likelihoods of climate events. • Understand when climate disasters do/don’t lead to security-

relevant outcomes. • A WoG strategy for monitoring threats connected to climate

change. • Scenario development: “Stress test” countries, regions &

global systems for ability to manage disruptive climate events.

•Research to Improve Understanding of Human-Environment Systems • Climate forcings, feedbacks, responses, and thresholds in the Earth system • Climate-related human behaviors and institutions

•Research to Support Effective Responses to Climate Change • Vulnerability and adaptation analyses of coupled human-environment systems • Research to support strategies for limiting climate change • Effective information and decision support systems

•Research Tools and Approaches to Improve Both Understanding and Responses • Integrated climate observing systems • Improved projections, analyses, and assessments

Knowledge Needs: National Climate Assessment

•Comprehensive climate information system to support operational assessments. •To develop local expertise in civil engineering, hydrology, energy, agriculture, land use & Infrastructure planning so developing nations can benefit from information. •Better processes to coordinate & leverage U.S. agency efforts. •Better insights into activities of other countries & international organizations.

Knowledge Needs: Defense Science Board

Agenda• The security threat of climate change• Knowledge needs to address the threat• S&T opportunities to strengthen Asia Pacific

S&T Opportunities• Technologies for mitigation• Technologies for adaptation• The challenge of geoengineering• Knowledge needs for adaptation and response

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Technologies for Mitigation

Canal Top Solar Power Plant by Hitesh vip - Own work. Image source: Wikipedia Commons

Asia Pulp & Paper plantation, IndonesiaImage source: Business Green Plus, 20 Oct 2013

CO2 scrubber conceptColumbia UniversityImage source: The Telegraph15 Aug 2014

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Technologies for Adaptation

Source: UNFCCC. 2006. Technologies for Adaptation to Climate Change.

“Unlike those for mitigation, the forms of technology for adaptation are often fairly familiar. Indeed, many have been tried and tested over generations….” (pp.4, 11)

Geoengineering S&T

Image source: climatecentral.org

“If a country experiencing a prolonged drought, for example, seeks to engineer the planet’s climate unilaterally, we will need to be familiar with the potential consequences in order to muster informed counter-arguments. And if our more extreme climate-change predictions become reality and a sudden climate emergency puts billions of people at risk, the world should not find itself collectively embarking on a crash program of geoengineering in ignorance.”-- M. Granger Morgan, 2009. Why geoengineering? MIT Technology Review (21 Dec)

Knowledge needs for adaptation & response

• Regional observation system for relating climate change to security threats.

• Methodologies that integrate social & ecological sciences for threat characterization & prediction.

• Scenario development for impact assessments. • Programs to develop local expertise in civil engineering, hydrology,

energy, agriculture, land use & infrastructure planning. • Regional security structure development for information sharing,

planning and response.

Take away points• Climate change creates both a need and an opportunity for nations

to work together.• Mitigation & adaptation technologies largely outside defense R&D

system.• Opportunities for research to relate climate change to security

threats.– Need for regional observation system linking environmental and

behavioral sciences.– Need for methodologies to predict security impacts.– Need to foster S&T expertise in vulnerable partner nations.

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Discussion

Image source:Risk Management Monitor