Opportunities for practical Earth observation applications

European Commission – Side EventGEO Plenary

Foz do Iguaçu, November 22, 2012Mark Noort, Faculty ITC, University of Twente

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Europe: Global Monitoring of Environment & Security

Disaster type Damage / year

(1998 – 2009)Possible reduction by using Earth observation

Flooding 4 billion Euro 10 %Storms 3.7 billion Euro 10 – 50 %Earthquakes 2.4 billion Euro positive, not quantifiedExtreme temperatures 830 million Euro positive, not quantified

Forest fires 576 million Euro positive, not quantified

Drought 411 million Euro positive, not quantified

Source: ESPI – the socio-economic benefits of GMES

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Why market Earth Observation?

Analogy mathematics and earth observation: applications not originally intended

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About the market:

Different projections EO market: 900 million to 1.2 billion in 2009 to 5 billion euro in 2020???Services: about 20% of total, defense and law biggest customers – government is main clientIncreases in scientific information do not automatically create information that is of economic valuePrivate sector builds on public investment: analogy with (other) internet servicesEconomic benefit as returns to an activity over and above its opportunity costsFocus on microeconomic approach and reducing uncertainty in decision making, environmental externalities, value-adding aspects

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Suppose all these problems are solved: All public information freely available

No security restrictionsSensors continuously operational Discovery, access, use, cost, coherence, frequency, quality and quantity of data settled for now and in the futureOpen source solutions widely availableLegislative mandates settledPotential customers know about EO potential

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Group on Earth Observations: coordinates efforts to build the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

GEOSS: free and low-cost data and information available to everybody , easily accessible and compatible for easy use (common infrastructure)

150+ countries and organizations are members

Structured around tasks to accomplish strategic targets by 2015

Divided in Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs): Disasters, Health, Energy, Climate, Water, Weather, Ecosystems, Agriculture, Biodiversity

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Marketing as Promotion & Capacity Building

With GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI) in place (2015), most images and datasets are easily accessible and freely available (or at low cost)

“Non-space countries”: only investment in basic infrastructure and capacity building is needed

OK, so at the general level there are benefits, but what happens at the local level?

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• What “we” want:Funding for GEO / GEOSS activities

• What “they” want:Practical solutions for concrete problems

• How to avoid the “whatever” default reaction, even if people are interested: we have no clear view of the opportunities, there are so many options and it is not clear to us how the problem is solved (where are the buttons we can push? & how can we explain?)

• The road to funding of GEO / GEOSS goes through accepted practical applications of Earth observation

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OverviewMarketing of Earth Observation Products & Services (framework study)

Regional Studies (Poland, Czech Republic, French-speaking Africa, Southern Africa) + Synthesis

Capacity Building Strategy Success Stories, Toolkits, Roadshow, Quick Win Projects, Workshops,Capacity Building Web

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Target Groups

Decision makers

Professionals

Communities

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Disaster management - categories

Risk assessment / simulation modelsForecasting / early warningMonitoringDamage assessmentPrevention / planningGeneral

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(Natural) disaster types Volcanic eruptions

Earthquakes Landslides

FloodsTsunamisDroughtsFires, etc.

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Use case 1: Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment

• Review of methodology• Development of software tools• Training needs assessment

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RiskCity concept

• Go through all steps of a risk assessment

• Urban area• Multi-hazard• Developing country• Different

approaches

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Risk City presentation GIS based training package for multi hazard risk assessment for risk reduction & management.Article RiskCity: a training package on the use of GIS for urban multi-hazard risk assessment.

www.itc.nl Cees van Westen

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RiskCity methodology

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Example: Flood modeling Naga City, Philippines

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RiskCity exercises• Introduction to data and software,• Obtaining image data and image interpretation;• Downloading Google Earth data and referencing• Remote sensing• Hazard assessment:• Landslides, Earthquakes, Flooding, Technological• Additional: coastal, tsunami, forest fire, drought, volcanic• Elements at risk• Assuming new data is available: start from Google Earth• Assuming more data available (cadastral, census, DEM)• Loss estimation• Annual loss estimation using risk curves• Qualitative loss estimation using matrices• Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation• Using indicators for social, physical, economical, environmental

vulnerability and for capacity• Annual loss estimation• Cost benefit analysis• Using risk information in spatial planning

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CAPRA experiences

• Comprehensive, multidisciplinary technology: develop more in-depth training package

• Regional training courses• Development of case studies• Support of university networks• Long-term capacity building needed

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Use case 2: Fire early warning and monitoring South Africa

Online detection of fires and occurrences of fire per year

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Advanced Fire Information System (AFIS)

• Primary sponsorship by ESKOM, power utility and electricity provider for South Africa

• Near-real time broadcasts from 15 minute interval satellite passes

• Detection of fires as small as 50m X 50m area • Fire detection rate of about 65% of all fires in South Africa • SMS alert notification to fire managers • Supplies several warnings to fire protection associations

in South Africa • Expansion of service to SADC region countries

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Use case 3: Community participation early warning – Mozambique & Philippines

Community meeting in Mozambique

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Community vulnerability map, Mozambique

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Elevated school in Maniquenique, Mozambique

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Colored warning charts Philippines

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525 mm precipitation in 24 hrs ‘Juan’

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2050: 292 mm in 3 days, 22 cm seal level rise, 16 % more rain

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Community participation

• SMS warning messages to community leaders• Training on flood and drought forecasting, early

warning and monitoring at the central level• Integrated land and water management plan• Building techniques and other measures• Substantial time and effort needed for

participatory planning approach• Local teams need to acquire skills• Relative high cost in remote areas

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Disaster Management (other examples)

• Floods in Poland and Czech Republic• Sensor webs for land slides Taiwan• Sensor webs for flood early warning Germany /

Brazil• Risk assessment coastal cities Northern Africa• International Charter to make satellite images

available for free after a disaster• Drought (& ecological) monitoring OSS: circum-

Saharan area

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Decision making “We can only manage what we measure”

Water cycle: water resources availability and quality for- Economic development- Green economy- Poverty reduction- Community empowerment- Risk management

WATER

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Water Resources ManagementCategories of products and services

Hydrologic information systemsSoil moisture modelingDrought monitoring / early warningMonsoon monitoring / forecasting

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Use case 4: capacity building in EO for water resources management in Africa

• Basic earth observation education, provided via distance learning

• Advanced short courses, focused on selected earth observation techniques

• Applied short courses, tailored to the research interest and technical background of the participants

• Research supervision, provided by earth observation specialists at

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Number of participants in courses from 2006 - 2012

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Distribution of research test areas among the TIGER projects

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Steps for Earth observation supported water resource management

1. Land use and land cover mapping + change monitoring2. Water abstraction estimate in respect of crop water demand estimates for

irrigated areas3. Refined land use / land cover mapping4. Surface water bodies or water pools (location, extent, dynamics)5. Digital elevation models and derived products6. Estimates of basin-wide evapotranspiration and precipitation7. Water and vegetation monitoring (entire aquifer)8. Ground subsidence monitoring and its correlation with groundwater

abstraction

From: Application of satellite remote sensing to support water resources management in Africa: results from the TIGER initiative

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Capacity building in earth observation for water resources management in Africa

• Increased capacity for research and problem-solving

• Promotion of integrated approach for water resources management

• Much more input needed to create real impact• Address sustainability by making data and images

available freely or at low-cost and create / maintain research infrastructure

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Use case 5: Water resources assessment, Tibetan plateau

Source of some of the largest rivers of the world, but very little quantitative information on water balance and long-term trends

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Evapotranspiration estimates from time-series of satellite images + in-situ measurements

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Result: water & energy balance modeling as input for decision-making (climate change)

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Water resources management: Tibetan Plateau

• Result: more insight in water and energy balance, also in remote areas

• Research cooperation European partners and China

• Combination earth observation and in-situ measurements

• Opportunity: well-informed decision-making on adaptation to climate change

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Use case 6: community mapping for drinking water in East Africa

Communities map their access to drinking water…

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and indicate the level of service…

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which is further analyzed and used for decision-making

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Google H2O: community mapping

• Result: more insight in actual water and sanitation situation in areas with difficult access (remote or unsafe)

• Supported by Google and UN-HABITAT• Wide range of other applications possible• Low-cost, training needed• Opportunity: community empowerment

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Water Resources Management(other examples)

• Improving parameters for curve-number method – Czech Republic

• Availability of global datasets – GRDC• Water & energy balance information - GEWEX• Drought monitoring• Getting information to the farmer: e-Leaf,

GEONETCast• Index-based insurance for agriculture• Wetland management - Poland

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Conclusions & Recommendations: Benefit from public investment in space: only small

investment in infrastructure and capacity building neededBenefit from GEOSS Common InfrastructureFocus on customer value propositions, strategic capitalism -> green economyMeasure impact: qualitative, quantitative, monetaryDialogue between government, scientists and private sector

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Thank youwww.itc.nl

www.geonetcab.euMark Noort: m.noort@itc.nl

m.noort@hcpinternational.com