Operating Agent, Task 1, IEA PVPS Programme PS PV€¦ · PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME...
Transcript of Operating Agent, Task 1, IEA PVPS Programme PS PV€¦ · PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME...
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Introduction to IEA PVPS,Introduction to IEA PVPS,and some recent resultsand some recent results
Greg WattOperating Agent, Task 1, IEA PVPS Programme
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
OUTLINEOUTLINE……....
The IEA, & the IEA PVPS Programme
IEA PVPS Task 1, & our key activities
Some of our recent analyses & results.
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
IEA ActivitiesIEA Activities
International Energy AgencyEnergy security and environmentGoverning Board & CERTWorking Parties (4) & ImplementingAgreements (42)Renewable Energy Working Party – 9 IAsincluding PVPS
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
The PVPS ProgrammeThe PVPS Programmewww.iea-pvps.orgwww.iea-pvps.org
Collaborative R & D agreement establishedwithin the IEA since 1993.The 20 participating countries are Australia,Austria, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany,Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, theNetherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom andthe United States of America. The EuropeanCommission and EPIA are also members.Malaysia is currently an active ‘observer’.
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
IEA PVPS featuresIEA PVPS features
Regarded as “one of the most active,successful programmes”Global network of expertiseBroad variety of stakeholdersIndependent, objective, neutralGuided by all members through ExCo,work carried out on a task-shared basisAnalyses & recommendations carryweight because of the IEA connection.
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Current PVPS activities (tasks)Current PVPS activities (tasks)www.iea-pvps.orgwww.iea-pvps.org
Information exchange & disseminationPerformance, reliability & analysisVery large scale systemsPV services for developing countriesUrban scale PV applicationsHybrid systemsEnvironmental Safety & Health
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Task 1Task 1
All PVPS countries (plus…) are Task 1membersPromote and facilitate informationexchange and dissemination concerningthe technical, economic, environmentaland social aspects of photovoltaic powersystems
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Our key activities (1)Our key activities (1)
An important deliverable of Task 1 isthe annual Trends in photovoltaicapplications report11 published since 1995Largely based on the informationprovided in the National Survey Reportswhich are produced annually by eachTask 1 participant.
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Our key activities (2)Our key activities (2)
PVPower newsletter2 issues per yearIEA PVPS and general PV news
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Our key activities (3)Our key activities (3)- the so-called special information activities- the so-called special information activities
A range of activities, including workshopsand documents, provide analysis andsummary assessment of special topics.Directed at technical, economic,environmental and social aspects of PVsystems and applicationsUsually managed by a specific country ora group of countries from the Task 1membership.
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Spectacular market growth!Spectacular market growth!(market size doubling roughly every 2 years)(market size doubling roughly every 2 years)
Market size doubling roughly every 2 years
Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in the reporting countries
0
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Grid-connect
Off-grid
MW
42%
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPSBut, where does PV electricity presentlyBut, where does PV electricity presently
fit in the larger energy picture?fit in the larger energy picture?
1
10
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1,000
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100,000
Global electricityconsumption
PV electricity
Currently 1/50 of one percentage point!Maybe a couple of percentage points by 2020
TWh
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Public spending on PV:Public spending on PV: a billion dollar plus enterprise! a billion dollar plus enterprise!
R,D&D and market support;
Over a decade, public spending on PV has doubled, with relativelysteady increases from year to year;
Initially this spending was largely focused on RD&D; 1994 – 4:1
The amount spent on market support increased at the expense ofRD&D (in both absolute and relative terms) until 2001; ’01 – 3:7
2004 saw the previously steadily increasing budgets for marketsupport decrease for the first time in a decade;
From 2001 RD&D expenditure has been both increasing, andincreasing its share of the total PV public expenditure. ’04 – 1:1
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
A A ‘‘realreal’’ market market……??
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Breakdown
Supported grid-connected Unsupported grid-connected
Unsupported off-grid Supported off-grid
2005 market
30 000 residential PV systems in Japan
85% in Japan & Germany
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
PV market support frameworksPV market support frameworks
Enhanced feed-in tariffsDirect capital subsidiesGreen electricity schemesRenewable portfolio standards
plus emerging mechanisms…
Preferential home mortgage termsGreen loans from commercial banksShare offerings in private PV investmentfundsTax credits
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
In an ideal worldIn an ideal world……
Various measures can be combined to functionmore effectively
Funding issues are given due consideration
The support framework is stable over time,separate from political interference,transparent and clearly targeted
In the real world….
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Patterns of annual installed capacityPatterns of annual installed capacity(values for 2003 set equal)(values for 2003 set equal)
Country 1 Country 2 Country 3 Country 4
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Healthy growth
Undulating market
Panic &collapse
Explosivegrowth
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Longer-term industry trendsLonger-term industry trends
PV module production and module production capacity
1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
ProductionCapacity
MW
1 000
2 000
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Industry value chainIndustry value chainGrowth: 2004 Growth: 2004 2005 2005
1 629 2 527 55%Module Production Capacity, MW/yr
1 295 2 152 66%Cell Production Capacity, MW/yr
1 160 1 532 32%PV Module Production, MW
1 109 1 500 35%PV Cell Production, MW
(Ingot & wafer production)
8 900 11 000 24%Silicon feedstock(tonnes sold to PV industry)
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
The key playersThe key playersPV cell production (MW) by country in 2005
Japan (823,5)
Germany (341,8)
US (156,3)
Spain (70*)
Australia (35,6)
France (33,5)
Norway (20,0)
Italy (11,6)
Korea (5,3)
UK (1,8)
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
The key players (2) ..The key players (2) ..
Share of PV cell production in the reporting countries by company in 2005 (%)
Sharp (JPN)28%
Q-Cells (DEU)11%
Kyocera (JPN)9%
Sanyo Electric (JPN)8%
Mitsubishi Electric (JPN)7%
RWE Schott (DEU, USA)6%
Others (23 companies)16%
BP Solar (AUS, ESP, USA)5%
Shell Solar (DEU, USA)4%
Isofoton (ESP)4% Photowatt International (FRA)
2%
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Evolution of price of PV modules and systems in 3 selected reporting countries, accounting for inflation effects
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1996
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2005
#1 modules#1 systems#2 modules#2 systems#3 modules#3 systems
Continuing price falls?Continuing price falls?BBooming demand and tight feedstock supplyooming demand and tight feedstock supply
The PV economists’Holy Grail!
ConstantUSD/W
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPSPVPV’’s s ‘‘additionaladditional’’ values values –– or how or how
to sell expensive technology!to sell expensive technology!
ElectricalPeak demand reduction, supply security, reduced line losses, power
quality improvement…
EnvironmentalReduced emissions, water use & safety risks from power generation..
ArchitecturalMulti-functional, reduced embodied & purchased energy…
Socio-economicNew industries, products & markets, energy supply diversity, local
employment, sustainable development, aid mechanism…
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007
IEA International Energy Agency
PVPS
Some challenges for policy makersSome challenges for policy makers……
How secure is political support for PV if prices do notfall, wealth flows to other countries and local jobs donot materialize?
Global market, vigorous demand & tight supply –opportunities for small players and innovators (andcountries) OR large (established) players to thrive atthe expense of all others?
To what extent should the market’s willingness topay for grid-connected PV be explored before publicresources are allocated?