Eran HoodAuke Lake at Auke Bay

April 2006

Caroline StewartSalmon River at Hyder

April 2006

Ray DronenbergChisana River at Northway

Nabesna RiverMay 2006

Tim GavinBuckland River at Buckland

uigmekOne who watches river October 2007

Please Note. . . .Don’t forget to send in your

Freeze-up Forms.

Inside This Issue…Welcome New Observers

Field Work AccomplishmentsSummer 2007

Site Visits Needed toMaintain Rating Curves

APRFC Hosts Russian ScientistsLong Time Cooperative

Program Manager RetiresEnd of 2007 Open Water SeasonCooperative Observer Receives

Thomas Jefferson AwardBack Page

Safety on IceStart of Ice Thickness Measurements

Alaska - PacificRiver Forecast Center6930 Sand Lake Road

Anchorage, Alaska 99502-1845http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov

800-847-1739

Our last weekend staffing is scheduled to be October 27 - 28. For those ofyou continuing to take measurements in November or beyond, please hold yourweekend measurements and give them to us on Mondays, or enter them on-line athttp://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov. Web entry requires a password. Instructions andpassword can be obtained from any APRFC staff member.

Welcome New Observers

Blunka Ishnook, Jr.Nushagak River at Koliganek

June 2007

Tikchik Narrows LodgeTikchik LakeJune 2007

The Native Village of KianaKobuk River at Kiana

June 2007

Isaac Douglas, Sr.Kobuk River at Ambler

June 2007

Bruce DickersonLittle Nelchina River

July 2007

Stephanie CarltonTazlina and Klutina Rivers

July 2007

Gary HadfieldNaknek River at Lake Camp

August 2007

Betty BenisonAnchor River at Anchor Point

September 2007

The Alaska-Pacific River ForecastCenter staff thanks you for yourriver and weather observations

this season, and looks forward toworking with you again next year.

This summer, members of the APRFCstaff conducted field work with helpfrom Weather Service Office (WSO)staff from McGrath and King Salmon.In May, Jim Coe and Becky Perrytraveled to McGrath to resurvey theslope profile gage and take a flowmeasurement on the Kuskokwim River.

Ralph Morgan, Official-in-Charge (OIC)at the WSO in McGrath assisted byproviding transportation, makingarrangements for a boat and driver tobe available for the flow measurement,and overseeing the flow measurementand gage survey process. Meteorologi-cal Technician (Met Tech) Cory VanPelt spent his day off assisting Jim onthe boat and participating as part of thesurvey crew. Our thanks go out to thestaff at McGrath for their hospitality andtheir willingness to assist us with thework that needed to be done.

In June, Jim Coe and Dave Streubeltraveled to King Salmon where theymet up with Met Tech Paul Rockwood.Jim, Dave, and Paul chartered a flightto the village of Ekwok, where they

completed a flow measurement onthe Nushagak River. Peggy Perales,OIC at the WSO in King Salmon,joined Jim and Dave the followingday when they flew to the village ofKoliganek on the Nushagak River

Field Work AccomplishmentsSummer 2007

Jim Coe (foreground) and Dave Streubelsurvey in a slope profile gage at the

Tikchik Narrows Lodge

Cory Van Pelt (left) with survey rod on thebanks of Kuskokwim River at McGrath

Page 2

Field Work Accomplishments...cont’d from Page 1Nushagak River. A new slope profile gage wassurveyed in and a new observer, Blunka Ishnook Jr.,was brought on board. Blunka's father was the riverobserver during the early 1970’s at Koliganek. Thelast day of the trip was spent at the Tikchik NarrowsLodge. This beautiful lodge is accessible by floatplaneonly, and caters to fishing enthusiasts. Jim, Dave, andPeggy surveyed in a slope profile gage. The staff atthe lodge were then set up to enter their daily readingsonline through our website. Jim and Dave traveledback to King Salmon in August. Once again, Peggyaccompanied Jim and Dave to the villages of Ekwokand Koliganek, where they conducted more surveywork. Back in King Salmon, a new observer, GaryHadfield, was recruited to take readings on theNaknek River. We thank the WSO King Salmon stafffor all of their assistance this summer.

Weather Forecast Office (WFO) staff from Fairbanksand Anchorage also provided support during thissummer’s busy field work season.

Ed Plumb, Service Hydrologist from the FairbanksWFO, teamed up with Scott Lindsey and Becky Perryfor a road trip to the upper Tanana Valley and Forty-mile Country. The trip started in the village of North-way. Flow measurements were completed on both the

Chisana and Nabesna Rivers. Over a three day periodflow measurements were taken and flood stages wereevaluated for the West, Mosquito, South, and WalkerForks of the Fortymile River.

Ed and staff from the Fairbanks WFO also visitedseveral other sites in northern Alaska this pastsummer. This included a trip to do maintenance andsurveying at the slope profile gages in the upperYukon River villages of Beaver, Fort Yukon and CircleCity. Some work was also done on the Kobuk River. Acompletely new site was established in the village ofKiana and a new observer was recruited at Ambler.

In July, John Papineau, Service Hydrologist from theAnchorage WFO, partnered with Ben Balk and EricHolloway on a road trip through the Copper Basin. Thisteam spent nearly a week surveying, conducting flowmeasurements, and establishing action, minor, andmoderate flood stages on the Little Nelchina, Tonsina,Klutina, Tazlina and Maclaren Rivers. The same workwas done on the Gulkana River at Sourdough and Gul-kana River at Richardson Highway Bridge.

Ben Balk and Scott Lindsey returned to the Copper Basinin late September to conduct another flow measurementon the Tonsina River and perform maintenance on wireweight gages in the area.

Ed Plumb installs a new marker at the slope profile gageon the Nabesna River near Northway

Ron Stuvek from the WFO Fairbanks with a surveyrod on the banks of the Kobuk River at Kiana

Read more about Ron on Page 4

Kelly Songster and Julie Malingowski from theWFO Fairbanks extend the slope profile

on the Yukon River at Fort Yukon

Page 3

Site Visits Needed to MaintainRating Curves

Most people who monitor a river at aspecific location are familiar with whatis called a stage height, in feet, forthat location. They will likely be famil-iar with specific stage heights ofinterest to them. This could be a stageat which flooding begins, or a stage atwhich they can safely float the river,etc. Our problem at the River Fore-cast Center is that our hydrologiccomputer models calculate streamflow, not stage. The hydrologic modeluses the amount of rainfall, the tem-perature, the soil conditions, etc. tocompute the amount of water (streamflow) in a given river. The model out-put is in units of volume of water for aspecific time period, usually expressed in units of cubicfeet per second (cfs).

In order to convert the flow volume into a stage, we usewhat is called a rating curve (see Figure 1). This issimply a relationship of stream flow to gage height thatis developed by measuring the flow volume at differentgage heights and mathematically determining a relation-ship. Thus many of our visits to our gage sites willinclude a flow measurement as part of the work that isdone at the site. The flow measurement is done bymeasuring the average speed of the water in a subareaof the flow to get a flow for the subarea and thensumming the flows in all subareas across the channel toget the total flow. In the rating curve example in Figure1, the “Rating Curve” points and line might represent arating created from measurements made in a period 2 to5 years ago. The “Measurement” points and associatedline might represent measurements made in the last 2years.

Unfortunately, this ‘rating’ or relationship is not a staticone. Changes in the streambed configuration, causedby scour and deposition, change the amount of flow inthe channel for a given height (see Figure 2). It is nec-essary, therefore, to continue to take flow readings at agiven site not only to get more readings at differentlevels, but also to make sure that there hasn’t been asignificant change in the rating. Flooding in southcentralAlaska in 2006 caused changes in the channel andresulting rating curves at many of our gages affected bythe flooding.

A common misconception associated with gage height isthat this number represents a real elevation or even areal water depth. A gage height number actually repre-sents only a value relative to an arbitrary ‘zero level’ or‘zero datum’. The zero level is usually chosen to be at apoint well below the bottom of the streambed so that,

should scour in the channel at the gage occur, nega-tive gage values can be avoided. When possible, asurvey from existing Bench Marks (survey points ofknown elevation) is performed to find the ‘real’ eleva-tion of this ‘zero’ point (see Figure 3).

Rating Curve

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Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Page 4

The Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center (APRFC) playedhost to three scientists from Russia the week of July 23rd

to 27th. Sargylana Struchova was an engineer/hydrologistwith the Hydrometeorological Forecast Center in Yakutsk,Sakha Republic, in eastern Siberia. Gleb Kochergin andAnton Kozlov were post-graduate lecturers and computerspecialists from the Yugra Research Institute of Informa-tion Technologies in Khanty-Mansiisk in western Siberia.They were in Anchorage the previous week at a confer-ence on flooding in Arctic regions sponsored by theNorthern Forum and featuring a group of hydrologists andother scientists from different provinces in Canada andRussia, as well as staff members from APRFC.

The three spent their week learning about the forecastoperations at APRFC, covering: data acquisition, includingthe substantial role played by our volunteer observers in adata sparse region; meteorological analysis and predictionof precipitation; analog and digital hydrologic models; fore-cast products; and outreach and collaboration with ourcustomers and partners. Scott Lindsey, Eric Holloway,Dave Streubel, Jim Coe, Ben Balk, and Robin Radlein ofAPRFC and John Papineau and Sam Albanese with theAnchorage Weather Forecast Office all gave presentationsor demonstrated forecast techniques. After the demon-strations wrapped up, Sargylana was able to use the fore-cast model to make the next two-day forecast for theEagle River gage. The course wrapped up with a close uplook at some of the impact of the August and Octoberfloods in the Susitna River valley with a boat ride up theDeshka River from Susitna Landing.

While the immediate purpose of this training session wasto expose our Russia colleagues to some of our forecasttechniques, the larger purpose of our collaborative effortsis to learn from each other. These Arctic Canadian andRussian scientists live and work in the regions that mostclosely resemble the hydrology of Alaska and that mostnearly face similar hydroclimatological challenges. Whilesome of the techniques we use may someday improveforecasts on the Porcupine, Lena, or Ob Rivers, there isalso the hope that what we learn from them may also helpimprove our forecasts here.

APRFC Hosts Russian Scientistsby Robin Radlein

The 2007 open water season is coming to a close andwe would like to thank you for your assistance in takingwater level readings and ask that you stop taking read-ings when ice actually prevents you from making anaccurate reading safely.

We would appreciate any information on the conditionof the river and the formation of river ice. Pleasecomplete the enclosed Freeze-up Form and return tous. Your help contributes to a more complete record offreeze-up data for Alaska and is greatly appreciated.

End of 2007 Open Water Season

Bridge over the Ob Riverin western Siberia

Long Time Cooperative ObserverProgram Manager Retires

The Fairbanks WFO and the APRFC staff would liketo bid farewell to longtime employee Ron Stuvek.Ron retired on September 1st. In recent years, Ronhas been in charge of the Cooperative Observer Pro-gram for northern Alaska. Ron was responsible formaintaining equipment for all of the volunteerweather observers in northern Alaska. Ron alsoassisted Ed Plumb, Service Hydrologist from theFairbanks WFO, with surveying and a variety of otherfield work at NWS slope profile and wire weight rivergage sites. Ron worked for the NWS for 36 years andspent most of this time in Fairbanks. Ron had aknack for solving problems and improvising while outin the field. His confidence and dedication to the jobwill be missed by all the staff at the Fairbanks office.Many of you in northern Alaska will begin seeing anew face out in the field this year. Brad Sipperly, alsofrom Fairbanks, is replacing Ron in this position.

Ron Stuvek servicing a Fischer Porter.One of many Ron maintained during his 36 years

at the Fairbanks WFO

Page 5

John Borg, the cooperative observer in Eagle, Alaskareceived the Thomas Jefferson Award from the NationalWeather Service in September of 2007. The ThomasJefferson Award is the highest and most prestigiousaward bestowed on Cooperative Weather Observers. It isnamed for our third President, who kept an almostunbroken series of weather records from 1776 to 1816.This award is given to very few observers each year,usually not more than five, for outstanding and unusualachievements.

John Borg began his duties as a Cooperative Observer asa backup to the existing observer in 1969. Upon assump-tion of duties as the primary observer in 1971, Johnestablished a “network” of backups to ensure continuity ofdata records in the event of absences. This alone is animpressive characteristic and a Herculean feat not easilyachieved in a village with a population of less than 100people.

John Borg has demonstrated his commitment to the NWSdata acquisition process. He consistently calls the WFOday or night, to keep forecasters informed of extreme orchanging weather conditions. His discussions are detailedand have on numerous occasions resulted in immediateissuance of warnings, watches, or advisories that haveundoubtedly prevented loss of life and property damage.Over the past 38 years of taking weather observations, hehas witnessed and reported many extremes includingtemperatures ranging from -72F to 96F, a rare lateDecember thunderstorm, harsh wind chills, and blizzardconditions of winter. He pays particular attention to the iceconditions on the Yukon River. He notes the beginning ofthe river’s freeze-up, mid-winter periods of overflow, andthe start of breakup.

John has consistently provided the NWS with observationsof exceptional quality. He customarily appends additionalremarks and information on his B-91 forms, providing themost complete weather pictures possible. His B-91 forms

and punch tapes from the Fischer & Porter precipitationgage are consistently neat, accurate, and received ontime.

John has frequently posted his daily weather reportsand monthly summaries in areas frequented by thepublic. John has voluntarily and enthusiastically pro-vided unofficial aviation weather reports to the FederalAviation Administration, charter aircraft operators, andthe local community, enabling charter flights and thecontinued transport of mail, goods, and people duringthe long winter months. He provides detailed historicaldiscussions to scientists, geologists, climatologists, andforesters embarking on research and data gatheringexcursions through the vast wilderness area that is theYukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve.

The remoteness of Eagle causes unreliable communi-cations. Nevertheless, John has always found a way tocommunicate with the meteorologists and hydrologistsin Fairbanks and Anchorage. On numerous occasions,John has been tasked to install or repair the equipmenthe uses to prepare his observations, often in the harshweather conditions that frequent Eagle.

John has been a resident of Eagle since 1966 and hasworn many hats in the community over the years. Asproprietor of the Eagle Roadhouse, he and his wife pro-vided room and board to visiting geologists and sea-sonal employees of the Division of Forestry battling theever-threatening wild fires in Alaska’s interior. Heserved as a US Customs agent, postmaster, mayor,and regional Selective Service registrar. Although nowretired, he still serves on the board of the EagleHistorical Society and Museum, in addition to providingdaily climate reports to the National Weather Service.

Cooperative Observer Receives Thomas Jefferson Award

Laura Furgione, Regional Director for theNWS Alaska Region presents the

Thomas Jefferson Award to John Borg

Breakup on the Yukon River at EaglePhoto taken May 9, 2006

Anchorage Hydrologic Service Areaby John Papineau

Page 6

Those of you who measured ice thickness last year arerequested to do so again this year. Please let us know ifyou need more forms or envelopes for this season. Forthose of you who have measured in the past but do notintend to this year, please contact us to get instructionson sending the valuable equipment back to us so thatwe can use it at another location.

We will enter your data into a database and use the datain a monthly analysis of snow and ice for forecastingbreakup characteristics next spring. We would like youto make the measurement as close to the last day ofeach month as possible and mail the results to us. Besure to include the date and location on the form. Aphone call to our 800 number would also aid in theanalysis process, or use the NWS Observers form onthe Forms menu on the APRFC website to enter theinformation at: http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov. The ice thick-ness measurements should be made in the same loca-tions as in the past, preferably far enough from theshore line to prevent drilling in mud and not so far as toencounter strong currents. Before drilling the ice,measure the depth of the snow on top of the ice at thatpoint and record the snow depth in inches. It is prefer-able to drill a new hole each time rather than use thepreviously drilled hole. Inaccuracies due to differencesin heat transfer can occur at previously drilled holes.

Kelly Songster (pictured above) is a meteorologistat the Weather Forecast Office in Fairbanks.

Photo taken at Birch Lake State Recreation Site

Start of Ice Thickness Measurements

Before going onto a frozen lake, pond or river, it's impor-tant to take safety precautions to reduce the risk offalling through the ice.

Knowing how to judge ice conditions will also help youmake more informed decisions while enjoying yourouting. Look for clear blue ice. New ice is stronger thanold ice. Remember you take a risk any time you go ontothe ice. Ice thickness is not consistent. Beware of icearound partially submerged objects such as trees,brush, embankments or structures. Ice will not form asquickly where water is shallow or where objects mayabsorb sunlight.

River ice thickness is much more variable than lake ice.Additional safety consideration is needed when ventur-ing out onto river ice.

Beware of ice covered with snow. Snow acts much like ablanket, insulating thin ice and preventing the formationof clear, blue ice. Snow can also hide cracked, weakand open water. Daily changes in temperature cause iceto expand and contract, creating cracks and possiblypressure ridges which can affect ice strength.

The general rule of thumb for ice:

2 inches or less - STAY OFF4 inches of good ice for a walking individual6 inches of good ice for a snowmobile or ATV8-12 inches of good ice for a car or small pickup12-15 inches of good ice for a medium pickup

truck.

For this and additional informationon ice safety, visit:

http://gf.nd.gov/education/ice-brochure.html

Safety on Ice

Your safety on ice is important to us.