Uno, Nessuno, Centomila Progetti

Gaetano Mazzanti @mgaewsj Agile42

One, No One & One Hundred Thousand Projects

“fare, fare. fare per fare, senza vedere neppure

quello che fate, perché lo fate”

“doing, doing. doing just for the sake of it,

without even seeing what you are doing,

why you are doing it”

L.Pirandello

one product/project

many projects/initiatives

no project (continuous delivery, support, maintenance, …)

same(wrong?)questions, difficult/wrong/no

answers

?!

how much will it cost ?!

how long will it take ?!

who will work on that ?!

what to do next ?!

what options do we have

?!

what will be the value

?!

what is the cost of delay

?!

why ?!the key question

it all boil down to

economic based decisions

should

$$$

however…

he who yells the loudest…

HIPPO

HIghest Paid Person Opinion

EUROPE DEMANDS IT CUSTOMER

AN IMPORTANT

push

build

measure learn

planning fallacy

100% utilization

myth

the end result is…

multitasking

queues

firefighting

failure & frustration

so?

economic based decisions

a transparent mechanism for balancing

demand and supply with a clear

selection mechanism

$$$

if you can’t see it you can’t it manage

understand the system

do you really know where you are? what’s going on?

make work visible

source Pawel Brodzinski

expose dysfunctions

demand

capacity

balance

limit WIP

WIP limits

source David J Anderson

force conver

sations abou

t

what to…

work on now

postpone

drop

service oriented mindset

service delivery

implies flow

let  work  flow  let work flow

pizza delivery

fast delivery

accuracy and quality

predictability

what matters to customers

metrics that matter

matter to customers

no yes

end-to-end

functional

most  are  

 

here!  

 

visualize flow

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

B C

D

F E

A

visualize flow

B

C

D

F E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

measure flow

B

C D F

E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

G

H

I

flow efficiency

flow efficiency = touch time / lead time usually really bad (5%-20%) i.e. lead time = 10 days, touch time = 2 days

B

C D F

E

A

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

G

H

I

Z Z Z Z Z

(flawed)flow

Z Z Z Z Z

Z Z Z Z Z

Z Z Z Z Z

decision making in uncertainty

balance:

risk/return

short term/long term

etc.

decisionsrisk

knowledge

time

decisions… when?

keep your options open

pull  

selection vs

prioritization

selection

what to do next

what to finish next

?!

Cost of Delay

A

Delay Cost B

A duration

B duration

A CoD

B CoD

Duration Cost of Delay

CoD / T

A 5 3 0.6 B 2 2 1

If CoDA/ TA ≤ CoDB / TB

do B first

Cost of Delay

A

Delay Cost B

A duration

B duration

A CoD

B CoD

B

A Delay Cost

Duration Cost

of Delay

CoD / T

A 5 3 0.6

B 2 2 1

TA* CoDB = 10 TB* CoDA = 6

“fine, but what’s in it for me?”

what about humans?

we decide collaboratively

we share/show progress

we create a safe to fail environment

required

experiment: measure & learn

build

measure learn

many small steps,

some are discarded

others embraced

from

to?

to…

to?

to?

no known destination

sorry, there are

no best practices!

if humans are involved the domain is complex

more in depth…

demand analysis

where does work come from?

how is value assigned (and verified) to initiatives?

is arrival rate predictable? (usually not)

estimating & forecasting

?!

probabilistic forecasting  

reduce estimation effort (guesses) using historical data connect risks impact/likelihood to tracking

check Troy Magennis’ work

control chart

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

average cycletime

UCL

LCL

cycle time

knowledge work has high variability

time!

CFD Cumulative Flow Diagram

“Houston…”

monitoring progress

90% complete

remaining 10% could take forever

is usually meaningless

90% of what?

monitoring progress

time

output

cost of delay & classes of service

cost

time

cost

time

cost

time

classes of service, WIP, expedite lane

D

H

J I

F B

A E C

6

M L K 2

1

1

O

Q

N

P

EXPEDITE LANE

G

ideas elaborate do delivered validate

limiting WIP

by # of initiatives (size matters)

by size

by team capacity

by space available

by conversation

…

limiting WIP

by # of initiatives (size matters)

by size

by team capacity

by space available

by conversation

…

limit WIP by team capacity / space available

staff liquidity

no dependencies on specific people allocate people with fewest options first people with most options coach and help others

enough…

ask yourself the right questions

?!

One No One One Hundred Thousand Projects

inspired by Joakim Sunden

Gaetano Mazzanti

@mgaewsj

gaetano.mazzanti@agile42.com