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The systems approach is perceived as a means to relate the rational and mythological levels, empiricism with creative design. In forecasting the analogous aspects are the extrapolative and normative formulations. In Jantsch’s conceptualization, the systems approach lifts us from deterministic cause and effect models to probabilistic models, from mechanistic to adaptive models, from game theory to gaming. Having climbed this far, he must now face the problem of moving from the second to the third level, i.e., search for means to relate the mythological to the evolutionary level. And here at the ultimate “centering” task he is by and large stymied. One valiant attempt resorts to nonequilib- rium thermodynamics, particularly the work of Prigogine. Its principle of “order through fluctuation” seems to suit the concept of the mutational transitions to successively higher orders of complexity which appear to characterize the evolutionary process.8 But the inclusion of “dissipative structures” in an enlarged general systems theory does not suffice. How do we actually proceed with regulation, i.e., “centering” of the evolutionary process?

A remarkable feature of Jantsch’s book is its integration of spiritual thought into the systems-oriented discussion. The Chinese “tao,” the right way between the opposing forces of yin and yang; the Hindu “Sadhanas” as ways to enlightenment and the seven “Chakras” or levels of consciousness; the statements of the Yakui Indian Don Juan (as described by Castaneda); and the evolutionary theory of Teilhard de Chardin suggest the range of sources called upon to grapple with the higher levels of the systemic hierarchy.

If the reader is frightened by this array, he should be reassured. Jantsch’s writing is enlivened by absolutely delightful quotations (e.g., Goethe, Schiller, Valery, Furtwangler,

Chuang Tzu, Zen, I Ching), references to films (e.g., “The Conformist” and “Blow-Up”), as well as personal touches. If he yearns for the comfort of systemic organization, he will find more than twenty characteristic systems diagrams. And finally he arrives at an epilogue entitled “Planning and Love.” The book is truly a rare treat-read, think, and let yourself go on this exquisite trip!

HAROLD A. LINSTONE

Senior Editor

Donald N. Michael, On Learning to Plan-And Planning To Learn, Jossey-Bass Publishers, San Francisco, 1973,341 pp., $12.50.

In a global environment in which notions such as long range planning, limits to growth and technology assessment are competing for attention, a book on planning can arouse interest as well as indifference and complacence. But, this book by the author of The Unprepared Society gives us an honest and inspirational portrayal of the process, philosophy and future of long-range social planning. Like The Unprepared Society, this book is stimulating, intelligent, honest and at times provocative and pessimistic. Michael’s pessimism, however, is based not on bitterness or outright criticism, but on genuine

” Incidentally, this will come as a shock to economists who have just discovered entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics (i.e., encrgetics). Marx and Keynes may be overthrown, but to find

that monotonic entropy increase and the Laws of Thermodynamics are now being questioned also-it is too much!

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concerns. Unlike some other books on planning [ 1, 21, this book views planning from a sociopsychological vantage point, emphasizing planning as a learning process.

The beliefs underlying the structure of reasoning employed in the book are clear and forthright. First, long range social planning (Irsp) is necessary. Second, changing over to lrsp will require changes in structures and norms characterizing conventional views of human and organizational behavior. Third, such a change-over will require changing toward future-responsive societal learning cfrsl). Fourth, the typical organizational re-

sponse is to distort or reject innovations such as lrsp to make them compatible with the conventional ways of rewarding and doing things. However the rejection or distortion undermines the very humane and democratic values that create the necessity for lrsp in the first place. In other words, the circle is ‘closed’. As Michael puts it:

Now or within the forcsecable future, lisp does not seem possible unless there are radical

changes in the structure of organizations and in the norms that guide and sustain the behavior of

the people who work in them and who, in turn sustain these structures. (p. 7)

It is the very nature of these rather pessimistic but honest reflections that provide purposes for writing the book. Michael mentions the following as major reasons: (a) to introduce into the current ideas on planning, a better understanding of the individual potential for change in the direction of lrsp; (b) to stimulate applications, whenever possible, of what we know about overcoming the resistance to lrsp; and (c) to stimulate research in the area of sociopsychological aspects in moving toward Irsp.

Michael sets out to perform a rather monumental task to achieve these objectives (a task he calls a ‘hunting expedition’). The hunting expedition is cybernetic, consisting of identifying and interpreting what is known on the subject, reflecting, speculating and then providing feedback to revise his reflections and propositions. To be realistic, Michael attempts to check his interpretations against the background of the real world, interviews with practitioners and utilizing the works of such writers as Argyris, Bennis, Dunn, Gross, Katz, Lindblom, Vickers and many others. After reading the book, I cannot but admire and appreciate the ‘catch’ of Michael’s hunting expedition. The book can be regarded as an inquiry that at times seems Hegelian but mostly Singerian [3]. Hence, ‘consensus with the author’s viewpoints’ seems hardly the criterion by which to judge the value of the book.

A word about the structure of the book: it is divided into four major parts. The first

part examines the meaning, requirements and implications of lrsp. The second part discusses the nature of demands that lrsp and frsl will make on human beings and their institutions. The third part examines changes required of the organizations to respond to the demands of internal and external environments characterizing lrsp. The fourth part, the Epilogue, focuses the ideas presented in the first three parts by discussing the conditions that can facilitate lrsp and make frsl feasible. The book also contains an extensive list of references on and related to long-range planning.

What is lrsp in the context of this book? At the minimum, lrsp involves:

(1) Making sophisticated conjectures about the future settings, for the relevant time horizons;

(2) Setting future responsive goals intended to become salient regulators of social development;

(3) Evaluating costs and benefits of alternative plans for achieving the goals; (4) Identifying and assessing the consequences of the selected plan(s);

108 BOOK REVIEWS

(5) Devising strategies for implementing the plan(s); (6) Evaluating effectiveness of the plan(s) on the basis of environmental and societal

feedback which may result in recycling the above steps,

The frsl is the means for lrsp. Michael suggests (p. 18): “Changing toward frsl would require that people working in organizations, and in the

social and natural environments linked to them, find it rewarding to learn how to do at least six things:

1. Live with, and acknowledge, great uncertainty. 2. Embrace error. 3. Seek and accept the ethical responsibility and the conflict-laden interpersonal

circumstances that attend goal-setting. 4. Evaluate the present in the light of anticipated futures, and commit themselves to

actions in the present intended to respond to such long-range anticipations. 5. Live with role stress and forego the satisfactions of stable, on the job, social group

relationships. 6. Be open to changes in commitments and direction, as suggested by changes in the

conjectured pictures of the future change and evaluations of ongoing activities.”

Michael suggests that these requirements can best be met by treating all aspects of changing-over to lrsp as a learning process.

In fact, the emphasis on planning as a learning experience is so strong in this book that it is worthwhile mentioning Michael’s reasons for suggesting it. First, the social technolo-

gies relevant to lrsp and frsl are not fully developed yet; neither a general theory nor adequate data base exists for developing a good understanding of social dynamics [4] . Second, to prevent its outright rejection, we will have to learn how to introduce lrsp in organizations. Third, we will have to learn how to incorporate members of the environ- ment into the lrsp process. Fourth, only through learning will we be able to specify the modes and characteristics of the needed social regulators. Finally? the ‘requisite variety’

needed to respond to the turbulent environment can only be generated by learning how to cope with its complex fields.

Michael questions whether we have the ability to respond to the requirements of lrsp and frsl in face of the turbulent environment. He points out that the traditional organizational response has been to be reactive rather than anticipative, to minimize the impact of the future events, and to resist changing over to lrsp. Linstone [5] has suggested that resistance to lrsp derives from our tendency to discount the future. Michael provides a different perspective on the subject:

I will try to show that the resistances to changing toward lrsp derive from images of man and his

purposes, and from the organizational means for accomplishin, ~7 them, that are incompatible with

the requirements for lrsp. Historically, these images of man have gotten us where we are. They have resulted in ways of expressing and organizing human behavior characterized by hierarchical

organizational structures, public organizations that try to avoid or at least minimize open contact with their relevant environment if it threatens them, and a host of negotiating procedures that reward closedness, resource preemption, power preemption, ambiguity, disjointed incrcmentalism, deceit, error-denying, distrust, inter-personal distance, pseudo-interpersonal collaboration, and pseudo-emotional support. In other words, WC reward forms of organizational life that at best

discourage effective societal learning and at worst make it impossible. (pp. 22, 23)

None the less Michael sees a ray of hope for the future, a hope that seems to be based on the belief that man creates his own reality and that the nature of man as we know it is

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the nature shown in specific man-made social structures (or “appreciative fields” to use Vickers’ concept [6]). Hence, one must search to determine what human nature may need

to become and what organizational structures and norms are needed to sustain it. Most of Michael’s book is devoted to such a search.

The results of the search are honest and profound in their implications. For instance, on the subject of organizational involvement in lrsp activities, Michael observes:

. it appears that much that is claimed for and done in the name of corporate planning is only

dimly related in practice and spirit to what is proposed in this book . . . most senior personnel have

little understanding of the processes of innovation and change in their organization, being

concerned with matters of money flow, market share, and so on. . . (pp. 89, 90)

In short, most organizational planning efforts seem devoted to inventing social and technological fixes and putting out fires, leaving little time for systemic planning.

Other results of the search explore the sociopsychological conditions that need to be met if we are to satisfy the six requirements of frsl, cited earlier. A vivid illustration of our inability to live with uncertainty evolves in the following statements attributed to a federal executive by Michael:

Part of my job is to look like I know what I am doing. Otherwise morale would go to hell here.

Somebody’g got to look like they know where the end of the tunnel is in this mad-house! (pp. 125)

These statements also indicate that those involved act as if they already have learned and really know what to do and how to do it.

Michael covers a lot of ground in this book and presents his ideas convincingly. One question however remains: will the futures created by lrsp using frsl depend increasingly on regulation [6] by institutional means, although the means may be based on the new and positive images of human nature and potential? If so, the utilization of such regulators will accelerate the loss of ‘individualism. Carl Jung has argued that the 10~s of individualism affects, in the long run, both individual and social behavior because the loss degrades the introspective life of man. Jung pleads forcefully for preserving the inner

dignity of man [7] :

Apart from agglomeration of huge masses of people, in which the individual disappears anyway,

one of the chief factors responsible for psychological mass-mindedness is scientific rationalism,

which robs the individual of his foundations and dignity. As a social unit he has lost his

individuality and become a mere abstract number of bureau of statistics. He can only play the role

of an interchangeable unit of infinitesimal importance. Looked at rationally and from outside, that

is exactly what he is, and from this view it seems positively absurd to go on talking about the value

of the individual. Indeed, one can hardly imagine how one ever came to endow individual human

life with so much dignity when the truth to the contrary is as plain as the palm of your hand. (pp.

24)

In his recent book [8] , Menninger also discusses the serious implications of institution- alizing moral and ethical issues affecting man. Since lrsp has to be ‘open-ended’, to use Gabor’s notion, can we ignore such concerns that no doubt affect frsl?

Finally, let us hope that Michael’s insights, reflections and propositions will inspire and fall on the ears of “those who matter”-practitioners, decisionmakers, policymakers,

teachers and the public at large. Otherwise, such a profound book will end up as still another scholarly treatise on the subject that is preached much, but practiced little.

K. J. SHARMA Energy Program,

Bechtel Corporation, San Francisco, CA

110 BOOK REVIEWS

Notes and References 1. 2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Jantsch, Erich, Ed., Perspecfives ofPlarzning, OECD, Paris, 1969.

Steiner, George A., To[> Managenrerzt Plamzirzg, Macmillan, London, 1969.

The notion of inquiry is expressed in the spirit suggested by C. West Churchman in his book The Design ofhzquiring Systems, Basic Books, New York, 1971.

As a strong cast on this subject. see Hoos, Ida R., Techrzol. Forecast. Sot. Qzange, 6 (2), 113

(1974).

Linstone, Harold A., On Discounting the Future, Technol. Forecast. Sot. Change, 4 (4), 335-338

(1973).

The terms ‘appreciative fields’ and ‘regulation’ are used in the sense discussed by Geoffrey Vickers

in his books, notably, Freedom in a Rocking Boat: Changing Values in an Unstable Society, The

Penguin Press, London, 1970.

7. Jung, Carl G., The Undiscovered Self, Little, Brown and Company, Boston, 1958.

8. Menninger, Karl, Whatever Became of Sin?, Hawthorne Books, New York, 1973.

Rein Turn, Computers in the 198Os, Columbia U. Press, New York, 1974.

In the opening sentences of the Preface, the author states the purpose of his book: “This book is not about technological forecasting. It is a technological forecast. It takes the mid-1971 state-of-the-art digital computer hardware technology as a base line and

projects improvements in this technology over the next fifteen to twenty years (italics in original).”

Chapter II (29 pages) contains a summary of technological forecasting methods. Much of this is drawn from sources which are now standard. However, the author says of the forecasts in the book, “(This) f orecast was prepared in the summer of 197 1. Hence it could not benefit from the excellent books (published since). Indeed, no technological forecasting book then available was followed.”

What we have here, then, is a forecast prepared in 1971 by a largely self-taught technological forecaster. It would not be appropriate to critique the tutorial material in the book as being inferior to other references, nor would it be fair to nit-pick the details of the methods actually used to make the forecasts. This review, then, will concern itself with the value of this book to the technological forecasting community.

First, to the educator, it offers a wealth of fresh examples, including 20 trend graphs and 34 tabular forecasts. Moreover, the data on which these forecasts are based is either presented in the book, or is available from the references cited. Thus there would be ample opportunity to apply methods other than those used by the author to determine whether they gave comparable results. Finally, the book provides an example of an integrated forecast for an entire field of technology. This book would be highly useful as a reference for a course in technological forecasting.

For the working forecaster, especially the neophyte, it provides a practical example of how at least one forecaster proceeded in analyzing an entire field of technology. The forecaster can observe how such a field can be broken down into technical areas which can be forecast separately, and the means by which the resulting forecasts can be combined. He can also observe some of the problems which arise in analyzing a field of technology and collecting the necessary data, and draw upon one set of solutions to these problems. Both the neophyte and the experienced forecaster can gain practical value from this book.

For the theoretician and the methodological researcher, the book exposes a wide range of problems, difficulties and shortcomings of existing forecasting methods. These include