Oklahoma State University
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Transcript of Oklahoma State University
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Oklahoma State University
Wheat, Corn, & SorghumSituation and Outlook
Bill Burton
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Corn production areaCorn production area
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Soybean production areaSoybean production area
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HRW wheat production areaHRW wheat production area
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SRW wheat production areaSRW wheat production area
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Talking Points
• Planted wheat, corn & bean acres.
• Tight U.S. and world grain stocks.
• U.S. next exportable wheat crop to be harvested.
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KCBT Monthly Wheat
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CBT Corn Monthly
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Aug
CBT Soybean Monthly
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Dec
CBT Corn Monthly
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wheat, corn and bean seed acres
Million Acres
2008/09 2007/08 10-yr avg
all wheat 63.6 60.4 59.3
beans 74.8 68.5 72.8
corn 86.0 93.6 80.5
32.5HRW10.7SRW13.6HRS
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
4502,3002,650
9502,100
550$6.30
4562,0672,6131,2252,371
242$6.15
Million Bushels
Kim’s08/09
USDA07/08
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World Wheat Situation (MMT)Beginning
Stocks Production UseEnding Stocks
05 / 06 150.76 621.30 624.37 147.69
06 / 07 147.69 592.96 615.80 124.85
07 / 08 124.85 606.69 619.06 112.48
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KCBT July ‘08 $8.64-.70
$7.94
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U.S. Corn Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
1,27512,360
13, 6502,100
12,700950
$5.00
1,30413,07414,3932,45013,101,283$4.30
Million Bushels
Kim’s08/09
USDA07/08
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World Corn Situation (MMT)Beginning
Stocks Production UseEnding Stocks
05 / 06 132.14 696.86 703.89 125.11
06 / 07 125.11 705.34 722.26 108.20
07 / 08 108.20 772.17 777.39 102.97
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CBT Dec Corn ‘08 $6.19-0.10$6.11
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U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
Beginning stocksProduction Supply, TotalExports
Use, TotalEnding StocksAvg. farm price
1603,1003,2601,0003,000
260$10.00
5742,5853,1691,0753,009
160$10.40
Million Bushels
Kim’s08/09
USDA07/08
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World Soybean Situation (MMT)Beginning
Stocks Production UseEnding Stocks
05 / 06 47.50 220.54 215.25 52.88
06 / 07 52.88 237.25 224.90 63.26
07 / 08 63.26 219.99 233.83 49.31
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CBT Nov Beans ‘08$12.00
-1.00$11.00
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Talking Points
Weather most critical price factor
World must have 2008 wheat, corn & beans.
Even if relatively large foreign wheat crop, demand will be there for 2008 harvested U.S. HRW wheat, corn & beans.
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CME Feeder Cattle Monthly
9/11
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NYMEX Crude Oil Monthly
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NYBOT Dollar Index ’88 – ‘08