Oklahoma Budget Overview: Trends and Outlook, August 2010

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    OKLAHOMA BUDGET OVERVIEW

    Trends and Outlook

    Revised: August 16, 2010

    David Blatt

    Oklahoma Policy [email protected] - (918) 794-3944

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Oklahomas Path to Prosperity

    OUR STARTING POINTGovernment is among our means of

    achieving our common goals as astate --- alongside private businesses,non-profit organizations, faith groups

    and families.

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    Oklahomas Path to Prosperity

    OUR STARTING POINT Our families, communities and businesses dependon our state and local governments to help:

    Educate our children and train our workforce;

    Protect our streets and investigate crimes;

    Maintain and upgrade our roads and bridges;

    Pay for the medical care provided by private doctors, nurses,therapists, home health aides, etc.

    Ensure we have clean water and air;

    Promote our small towns, rural areas, artists and investors;

    Take care of those at risk of harm and abuse.

    We cannot reach our goals and thrive as a statewithout effective public structures and systems.

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    Oklahomas Path to Prosperity

    We Already Lag Behind Oklahoma already underfunds most of our publicstructures and falls short of many of our common goals asa state. For example:

    Our teacher pay is among the lowest in the nation;

    We have among the highest rates of heart disease, obesity,smoking, and uninsured;

    Our community-based social service providers have gone yearswithout rate increases;

    Many of our roads and bridges are in disrepair;

    Our correctional facilities are overcrowded and understaffed.

    The ongoing state budget crisis threatens a serious andlong-term corrosion of our public structures that willweaken our prosperity, security and well-being.

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    Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09

    Annual Appropriations Totals,FY 00FY 08(Includes Supplementals thru FY 08 and Rainy Day spillover Funds for

    Recurring Agency Expenditures) - in $millions

    FY 02 FY 08: Bust and Boom State budget suffered steep downturn, deep cuts, 02 - 04;

    Strong economy led to robust revenue growth and increased stateappropriations between FY 06 and FY 08.

    $4,981

    $5,389 $5,491$5,191 $5,145

    $5,459

    $6,217

    $6,760$7,043

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    $7,000

    $7,500

    FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08

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    Where did the growth revenue go?

    Covering rising costs of basic services and supportingtargeted investments for shared goals;

    80 percent of new dollars went to six core agencies.

    Increased State Appropriations, Selected Agencies,FY 06 FY 08

    Dept. of Education: $453M

    Health Care Authority: $289M

    Higher Education: $271M

    Human Services: $129M

    Corrections: $80M

    Transportation: $72.5M*

    Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09

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    Lost Revenues from Select Tax Cuts Enacted 2004 - 2006FY'05 through FY'10 (in $ millions)

    $18.7$144.8

    $333.3

    $561.8$651.1

    $776.9

    $0.0

    $200.0

    $400.0

    $600.0

    $800.0

    FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10source : Oklahoma Tax Commission

    Tax Cuts had a long-term impact Most of the cuts were to the personal income tax;

    Tax cuts were stretched out over several years; full impactwill not be felt until FY11.

    Budget Trends: FY 02 FY 09

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    Budget Trends: FY 02 - FY 09

    FY 09 Budget: Tightening the Screws Most agencies appropriations frozen for FY09;

    No funding for benefit cost increases teacher salary increases, stateemployee raises.

    FY 09 excludes supplementals and mid-year budget cut

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

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    Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Things Are Tough All Over

    All but two states are experiencing the state fiscal crisis.

    Combined state budget gaps for FY 09 FY 12 estimated toexceed $600 billion.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    The Recession Hit Oklahoma Late 2008

    0.01.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    Jan-80

    Apr-81

    Jul-82

    Oct-83

    Jan-85

    Apr-86

    Jul-87

    Oct-88

    Jan-90

    Apr-91

    Jul-92

    Oct-93

    Jan-95

    Apr-96

    Jul-97

    Oct-98

    Jan-00

    Apr-01

    Jul-02

    Oct-03

    Jan-05

    Apr-06

    Jul-07

    Oct-08

    Jan-10

    %Umpo

    Oklahoma Monthly Unemployment Rate(Seasonally-Adjusted), Jan. 1980- June 2010

    June2010:

    6.8%

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    The Recession Hit Oklahoma Late 2008

    See OK Policy, Numbers You Need, at:

    http://okpolicy.org/numbers-you-need-key-oklahoma-economic-and-budget-trends

    -5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%

    4.0%5.0%

    2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2 2009.3 2009.4 2010.1

    % Change from PriorQuarter

    Quarterly Change in Personal Income,Oklahoma and National,

    4th Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2010

    U.S. Oklahoma

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its A Revenue Problem Jan 2009 Feb 2010: Revenues fell by a monthlyaverage of 23.1 percent compared to the same month forthe prior year.

    Finally seeing clear signs that the downturn has hitbottom and revenues are starting to climb back.

    11.1%10.8%

    1.3%

    10.4%12.8%

    7.1%

    -8.5%

    -21.5%-19.1%

    -21.1%

    -27.7%-30.1%

    -26.3%

    -31.6%-30.1%

    -23.7%

    -30.5%-29.1%

    -16.7%

    -7.3%

    1.6%

    -0.2%

    6.0%2.1%

    9.9%

    -40.0%

    -30.0%

    -20.0%

    -10.0%

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept. Nov Jan Mar May July

    Change in Monthly General Revenue Collections, Compared to Same Month Prior

    Year, July '08 - July '10

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its a Revenue Problem Five consecutive quarters of worsening collections;

    Revenue drops more than twice as steep as during thelast downturn.

    -12.1%

    -29.5%

    2.3%

    -40.0%

    -30.0%

    -20.0%

    -10.0%

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    30.0%

    Q1

    FY

    '02

    Q3

    FY

    '02

    Q1

    FY

    '03

    Q3

    FY

    '03

    Q1

    FY

    '04

    Q3

    FY

    '04

    Q1

    FY

    '05

    Q3

    FY

    '05

    Q1

    FY

    '06

    Q3

    FY

    '06

    Q1

    FY

    '07

    Q3

    FY

    '07

    Q1

    FY

    '08

    Q3

    FY

    '08

    Q1

    FY

    '09

    Q3

    FY

    '09

    Q1

    FY

    '10

    Q3

    FY

    '10

    Quarterly Year-over-Year Change in General Revenue

    Collections, FY '02 - FY '10

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its a Revenue Problem FY 10 General Revenue 23 percent below pre-downturn (FY

    08) levels;

    FY 10 GR collections less than FY 01 without adjusting forinflation or population growth.

    $4,717

    $4,408

    $4,174

    $4,616

    $4,966

    $5,701

    $5,935 $5,953

    $5,545

    $4,600

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    FY '01 FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10

    General Revenue Collections,FY '01 - FY '10 (in $millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    Its a Revenue Problem Between FY 08 and FY 10, GR fell by:

    Gross production tax : -46 percent;

    Corporate income tax : -40 percent;

    Personal income tax : -31 percent;

    Sales tax : -8 percent.

    $2,380 $2,338 $2,239 $2,014$1,708 $1,703

    $265 $435 $279$266

    $168 $172

    $730 $640 $825

    $724$445 $519

    $1,455 $1,531 $1,612$1,647

    $1,516 $1,583

    $234 $259 $252$176

    $147$145

    $638$732 $746

    $716

    $617$766

    $-

    $1,000

    $2,000

    $3,000

    $4,000

    $5,000

    $6,000

    $7,000

    FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11(Est.)

    Oklahoma General Revenue Collections, FY '06 - FY '11 (in $ millions)

    Personal Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Gross Production Sales Tax Motor Vehicle Other Sources

    Total=

    $5,935

    Total=

    $5,953

    Total=

    $4,600

    Total=

    $4,888

    Total=

    $5,518

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Budget: Revenues on the Skids

    5,407.2

    5,649.2

    5,981.1 5,946.45,902.7

    5,710.0

    5,356.6

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    6,500

    FY '06 Actual Fy '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 June FY '09

    December

    FY '09

    February

    FY '10

    Feburary

    General Revenue Collections,FY '06 Actual - FY '10 Estimated (in $million)

    In February, FY 10 revenues estimated to come in >$600million below FY09.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Initial Budget $7,231.2 million total, including $641 million ARRA (stimulus);

    Increase in total appropriations of $106 million (1.5 percent)compared to FY09;

    State dollars only: $500 million less than in FY09.

    $4,981

    $5,389

    $5,491

    $5,191 $5,145

    $5,459

    $6,217

    $6,760

    $7,043

    4,000

    4,500

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    6,500

    7,000

    7,500

    FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10State Appropriations ARRA

    $30ARRA

    $7,125 $7,231

    $641ARRA

    $7,095State

    $6,590State

    State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY '10 in $millions)(includes supplementals, excludes one-times from Rainy Day Spillover funds)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Initial Budget Stimulus funds made it possible to minimize cuts orprovide small increases to ten largest state agencies andsome smaller ones;

    Funding for 10 largest agencies up $161 million, 2.6

    percent. Most smaller agencies took cuts of 5 to 7 percent;

    No funding to address rising employee benefit costs orinflation (e.g. utilities, transportation, food);

    Demands for some state services increase due to thedownturn.

    See: OK Policy FY 10 Budget Review at:

    http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-budget-information

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : Off to a Very Rough Start Collections through January were $864 million 24.9 percent -below the estimate.

    After seven months of significant shortfalls, collections startingin February came close to or exceeded the monthly estimate.

    -$401

    -$180 -$200

    -$11-$72

    -$864-$1,000

    -$800

    -$600

    -$400

    -$200

    $0

    Net Income

    Tax

    Gross

    Production

    Sales Tax Motor

    Vehicle

    Other

    Sources

    Total Gen.

    Revenue

    General Revenue Collections compared toEstimate, by Tax, FY '10 thru Jan (in $millions)

    -$476

    $17

    -$238

    $6

    -$125

    -$816-$1,000

    -$800

    -$600

    -$400

    -$200

    $0

    $200

    Net

    Income

    Tax

    Gross

    Production

    Sales Tax Motor

    Vehicle

    Other

    Sources

    Total Gen.

    Revenue

    General Revenue Collections compared toEstimate, by Tax, FY '10 thru June (in $millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : How Large a Shortfall? February certification projected a $669 million (13.0percent) shortfall in FY 10 GRcollections;

    $109 million projected shortfall in HB 1017 Fund as well;

    Total mid-year shortfall of $778 million.

    $5,415

    $5,145

    $4,476

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    100% Estimate - June Appropriation (95%) February Projection

    FY '10 General Revenues - Original vs.Revised Projections

    $669million

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 : What Response? OSF cut agenciesGR allocations by 5 percent beginning inAugust and by 10 percent beginning in December;

    Cuts were across-the-board based on GR allocations;

    Since some agencies are partly or fully appropriated fromother funds (i.e. 1017 Fund, State Transportation Fund,ARRA), agencies were not all affected equally.

    Cuts limited to less than shortfall through by borrowing fromcash reserves of various funds;

    $320.9 million borrowed in first 7 months of the year;

    Fully repaid by May.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Mid-Year Budget AgreementAgreements announced by Governor, Speaker andPresident Pro Tem in January and February:

    Continued 10 percent monthly cuts to GR for rest of year;

    Averaged out to 7.5 percent of GR for full year.

    Supplemental funding to various agencies to offset part of GRand HB 1017 shortfalls (Common Ed, Higher Ed, OHCA,Corrections, others);

    After supplementals, mid-year cuts equaled $272 million (3.8percent);

    Additional revenues needed to balance: $223.7 million of Rainy Day Fund (3/8th), $151 million more

    stimulus money, plus additional gross production taxrevenues and other sources.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10 Mid-Year Budget Agreement Total revised budget was $272 million (3.8%) less thaninitial; $165 million (2.4%) less than FY 09;

    Almost $1.5 billion (21%) of revised FY 10 budget madeup of non-recurring money.

    $6,793

    $6,220$5,462

    $301

    $371

    $435

    $30$641

    $838

    $224

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    $7,000

    $7,500

    FY '09 FY '10 - Initial FY '10 - Revised

    State Recurring Cash Stimulus (ARRA) Rainy Day Fund

    State Appropriations, FY '09 - FY '10,

    Total and by Funding Source (in $millions)

    Total= $7,124 million Total= $7,231 millionTotal= $6,959 million

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 10: Impact of Cuts Even with all the additional revenue to reduce the size ofcuts , the toll on services and programs has been significant:

    Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services reducedbeds and closed centers for childrens mental health and adultsubstance abuse, cut contracts to all providers;

    OJA cancelled youth detention and gang prevention programs, cutproviders 5 percent, authorized 22 furlough days;

    OHCA cut some Medicaid benefits and reduced all provider rates by3.5 percent;

    Health Department eliminated 17 child guidance centers serving pre-school children with developmental delays;

    Department of Corrections cut contracts, eliminated programs,reduced staffing to under 75 percent of authorized levels;

    School districts eliminating programs, some going to 4-day weeks;

    DA offices prosecuting fewer criminals;

    Most agencies leaving positions unfilled, offering buy-outs; manyimposing furloughs.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates FY 11 revenue collections projected to grow onlyslightly from FY 10 and to remain almost 25 percentbelow pre-downturn (FY 08) levels

    $5,714

    $5,928 $5,981

    $5,519$5,415

    $ 4,475

    $4,579

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    FY '06 Actual FY '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 Actual FY '10 (June

    estimated)

    FY '10 (Feb

    projected)

    FY '11 (Feb

    estimated)

    General Revenue Collections,FY '06 Actual - FY '11 Estimated (in $ millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates Final FY 11 certification provided $1.8 billion lessrevenue for next year than FY 10 initial budget , $1.5billion less than final FY 10 budget

    $7,043 $7,124$7,231

    $6,452

    $6,959

    $5,294 $5,415

    $6,797

    $4,000

    $5,000

    $6,000

    $7,000

    $8,000

    FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 -

    initial

    budget

    FY '10 -

    projected

    revenues

    (Feb)

    FY '10 -

    Revised

    FY '11 -

    Certified

    State $

    (Dec)

    FY '11 -

    Certified

    State $

    (Feb)

    FY '11 -

    Gov

    Budget

    State Appropriations, FY'08-FY '11(includes all revenues and supplementals;

    in $ millions)

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates To budget the balance, Gov. Henry proposed:

    Annualizing and increasing FY10 cuts by an additional 0.5percent to 3 percent for all agencies.

    Using remaining stimulus funds and a portion of remaining

    Rainy Day Funds. Savings from consolidating agencies and IT services.

    Close to $500 million various revenue enhancements

    New bond issues;

    Enhanced tax collection proposals, particularly increased sales taxcollections on Internet sales and automated enforcement of vehicleinsurance;

    Eliminating and suspending various tax credits;

    Increases in fees and permits.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget: The Challenge Escalates 2010 Session focused on which, if any, revenue measures wouldbe adopted to bridge the budget gap.

    FY 11 budget gap exceeded $800 million - assumingmaintenance of FY 10 budget cuts, the use of all remainingstimulus funds, and 3/8ths of Rainy Day Fund.

    Equivalent to an additional 12 percent cuts to all agencies ofstate government beyond the cuts already enacted.

    Agency scenarios of how to absorb cuts of an additional 7.5percent to 15 percent in FY 11 left no doubt of the grave threatsthat would be posed to the state economy and to the health and

    security of Oklahomans. Many cuts would be multiplied by loss of federal matching

    funds.

    See OK Policy, Bridging the Budget Gap, :http://okpolicy.org/files/bridgingthegap_1pg.pdf

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget Agreement Total appropriations for FY 11 = $6.714 billion. 7.2 percent decrease (-$517.5 million) from the initial FY 10

    budget and 3.5 percent decrease (-$245.4 million) from thefinal FY 10 budget after mid-year cuts

    $4,906

    $5,389$5,412

    $4,922$5,073

    $5,240

    $6,217

    $6,760$7,043

    $7,095

    $6,590

    $5,897$5,802

    $219

    $30

    $641

    $838

    $539

    $75

    $79

    $269 $72

    $224

    $373

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    $7,000

    $7,500

    FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 -

    Initial

    FY '10

    - Final

    FY '11

    FIG. 1: State Appropriations History, FY '00 - FY 11(in $millions; FY '00-FY'10 includes supplementals, excludes one-times from

    Rainy Day Spillover Funds )

    State Revenues Federal Relief Rainy Day Fund

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget Agreement Appropriated over $1.35 billion in additional revenues on topof those certified in February. These included:

    Remaining $539 million from the 2009 stimulus bill;

    Remaining $373 from the Rainy Day Fund;

    $450 million from assorted revenue enhancements: Suspending and deferring payment of tax credits;

    Issuing and refinancing bonds;

    Fee and permit increases;

    Transfers of cash balances; Enhanced tax collections.

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget AgreementFY 11 Appropriations by Revenue Source

    General Revenue -

    Current Year,

    $4,634.8 , 69%

    General Revenue -

    Prior Year, $27.2 ,

    0%

    HB 1017 Fund,

    $599.6 , 9%

    Gross Production

    Tax - Oil, $144.9 ,

    2%

    Lottery, $61.6 , 1%

    State

    Transportation

    Fund, $215.6 , 3%

    Other State Funds,

    $118.2 , 2%

    ARRA--Education,

    $199.3 , 3%

    ARRA--Medicaid,

    $339.7 , 5%

    Rainy Day Fund,

    $372.9 , 6%

    TotalAppropropriations:$6,713.7

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget Agreement

    Common Ed.,$2,375.6 , 35%

    Higher Ed.,$1,003.5 , 15%

    OHCA (Medicaid),$993.0 , 15%

    DHS, $543.1 , 8%

    Corrections, $462.1, 7%

    Transportation,$114.8 , 2%

    Mental Health,$187.7 , 3%

    Career Tech, $142.0, 2%

    Juv. Affairs, $99.2 ,1%

    Public Safety, $88.4, 1%

    All Other Agencies,$704.3 , 11%

    TotalAppropriations:$6,713.7 millionIncludes stimulus,Rainy Day Fund

    Total TenLargest:$6,009.4,89.5%

    Notes:Transportation also received$65 from bond issue;OHCA includes $30m transferfrom Insure Oklahoma Fund;excludes Health Carrier Access

    Agency Appropriations 10 Largest, Others, Total

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    Budget Trends: FY 10 FY 11

    FY 11 Budget Agreement Funding cuts limited to under 10 percent for most of the largeststate agencies;

    However, over half of all appropriated agencies will absorb cutsof at least 15 percent for FY 11 compared to FY 09.

    In some cases, appropriations cuts have been partly offset byfee increases. In addition, the Legislature has approved measures

    to promote savings and efficiencies and give agencies and schooldistricts greater spending flexibility;

    For most agencies and school districts, no additional funding tocover increased employee health care costs, general inflation or

    rising caseloads;

    Cuts, furloughs, hiring freezes, layoffs will continue in FY11.

    See OK Policys FY 11 Budget Highlights at:

    http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-

    information

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Budget Outlook: This Aint Over Yet Revenues unlikely to recover to pre-downturn nominallevels prior to FY13.

    $5,928 $5,981

    $5,544

    $4,439

    $4,735

    $5,275

    $5,945

    $4,000

    $4,500

    $5,000

    $5,500

    $6,000

    $6,500

    FY 07 (act.)FY 08 (act.)FY 09 (act.)FY 10 (est.)FY 11 (est.)FY 12 (est.)FY 13 (est.)

    R

    n$mio

    Fiscal Year

    Historical and Projected Revenue, FY'07-FY'13General Revenue Fund

    Estimates by OKPolicy - not based oncertification

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Budget Outlook: This Aint Over Yet FY 11 GR collections up 9.9 percent from FY 10 but 19percent below FY 09;

    July collections 11.9 percent above the estimate.

    $329.6$339.8

    $289.2

    $343.2$359.8

    $378.7

    $407.0 $411.3

    $457.1

    $336.8

    $370.1

    $250.0

    $300.0

    $350.0

    $400.0

    $450.0

    $500.0

    FY '01 FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08 FY '09 FY '10 FY '11

    July General Revenue Collections,

    FY '01 - FY '11 (in Millions)

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Budget Outlook: This Aint Over Yet Substantial reliance in FY10 11 on non-recurring revenuecreates significant problems for FY 12 and FY 13:

    Over $1.1 billion in non-recurring revenues in FY 11 budget;

    However, $167 million surplus in FY 10 collections,

    likelihood ofaddl cash balances building up; Extension of federal stimulus should be able to help

    Medicaid and common education in FY12.

    Federal

    stimulus funds,

    $539

    Rainy Day

    Funds, $373

    Revolving fund

    transfers, $73

    Deferral of tax

    rebate

    payments, $81

    Moratorium of

    tax credits, $44

    Other one-time

    revenue, $36

    Non-Recurring Revenue in FY '11 BudgetTotal Budget = $6,714 million; Total Non-Recurring

    Revenues= $1,145 million)

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Budget Outlook: This Aint Over Yet Time-released tax cuts still kicking in:

    Top rate will fall from 5.5% to 5.25% as soon asrevenues are projected to grow 4%... even if revenuesremain below pre-downturn levels;

    Revenue impact of $120 - $170 million in FY 12 & FY 13; Effective January 1, 2012 unless Legislature acts.

    Additional revenues automatically allocated for ROADS andOHLAP.

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Budget Outlook: This Aint Over Yet Possible passage of SQ 744 (mandatory K-12 educationfunding increases) could throw everything into chaos.

    $392 $415

    $889

    $1,696

    $179 $217$(191)

    $206

    $572 $632$698

    $1,901

    $(200)

    $200

    $600

    $1,000

    $1,400$1,800

    $2,200

    Yr 1 (FY '12) Yr 2 (FY '13) Yr 3 (FY '14) Total

    Annual Mandatory Increase in K-12 Funding vs. IncreasedRevenues, FY '12 - FY '14 (in $ millions) under SQ 744 Formula

    Increased K-12 Spending Rest of Government Increased Revenue

    Assumes 10.5% annual revenue growth; 5% increase in Regional Per Pupil Expenditurein FY '13 and FY '14

    See: SQ 744 is the Wrong Solution for Oklahoma, Issue brief and factsheet at: http://okpolicy.org/sq-744

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    Budget Outlook: Looking Ahead

    Short-Term Recommendations:Need for a Balanced Approach

    1. Defer additional tax cuts until revenues fully recover;

    2. Serious review of tax credits and exemptions to determinewhich are needed and effective;

    3. Consider new revenue streams for the Medicaid program;

    4. Consolidation of functions and agencies where duplicativeor unnecessary;

    5. Prioritize prevention, diversion and surveillance over

    detention;

    6. Prepare for next downturn by strengthening our reservefunds and improving our forecasting capacities.

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    Structural deficit: Asituation that occurswhen a states normal

    growth of revenues isinsufficient to financethe normal growth ofexpenditures year afteryear

    (CBPP, Faulty Foundations: State Structural

    Budget Problems)

    Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

    Oklahoma like most states and the federal government faces a structural budget deficit

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    Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

    Projected Annual Budget Surpluses and Deficits

    Before and After 2004-2006 Tax Cuts (2007 to 2035)

    (2,500)

    (2,000)

    (1,500)

    (1,000)

    (500)

    0

    500

    1,000

    2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035Y e a r

    Mion$2005

    B e f o r e T a x C u t s

    A f t e r T a x C u t s

    Oklahomas Structural Deficit

    Source: Projections conducted in 2007 by Dr. Kent Olson, Professor ofEconomics, Oklahoma State University

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    Long-Term Recommendations1. Serious review of our tax system;

    2. Scrutinize our programs and spendingcommitments;

    3. Give control for making decisions about revenuesand spending back to our elected representatives.

    Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

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    For More Information

    Updated Budget Information:okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-

    11budget-information

    Oklahoma Policy Institutes OnlineBudget Guide

    www.okpolicy.org/online-

    budget-guide

    http://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://www.okpolicy.org/online-budget-guidehttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-informationhttp://okpolicy.org/fy-10-fy-11budget-information
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    Contact Information

    Oklahoma Policy InstituteP.O. Box 14347Tulsa, OK 74159-1437

    (918) 794-3944

    [email protected]

    Better Information, Better Policywww.okpolicy.org

    We are a 501(c)(3) funded by grants and contributions

    from individuals, organizations and businesses. Pleaseconsider a tax-deductible contribution to support ourwork. You can donate from our website or send a checkto the above address. Thank you!

    mailto:[email protected]://www.okpolicy.org/http://www.okpolicy.org/http://www.okpolicy.org/http://www.okpolicy.org/mailto:[email protected]