Offshore Windfarm Analysisen.airc.org.tw/re/seminar/2009161495601.pdfApril Offshore windfarm...

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Offshore Windfarm Analysis

Challenges and Opportunities


Agenda

Growth in the Offshore Windfarm

Sector

Loss Overview

Loss Analysis

Catastrophe Modelling

1

2

3

4


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2

Section 1

Growth in the Global

Offshore Windfarm Sector


Offshore Windfarm Opportunities and Challenges

Opportunities

Challenges

many of the same advantages as land-based

windfarms

Faster and steadier wind supply

Higher Energy demand in Coastal Areas

Less demand for land

Expensive and difficult to build and maintain

Technical threshold

Fishery environment and marine ecology

Safety at Sea – Difficult to manage the area

Lack of suitable offshore wind CAT model (vulnerability curves)

Lack of sector experience

Lack of local market insurance appetite

Source: https://www.americangeosciences.org/


Global Market Overview

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1245248

15042042

1043

3668

1254

42474989 5194

3056 3304

4808

68507893

11561

12815

17062

22051

27213

2010-2019 Global Offshore Wind Turbine New and Cumulative Volume(MW)

New（MW）

Cumulative（MW）


Global Market Overview

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

France

Norway

Spain

Ireland

US

Korea

Filand

Japan

Vietnam

Taiwan

Sweden

Netherlands

Belgium

Denmark

China

Germany

UK

2

2

5

25

30

44

71

85

99

128

191

1124

1557

1738

4906

7498

9710

2019 Global Offshore Wind Turbine Volume Distribution (MW)


Growth in the European Market

828

11361371

1662

2080

2488

3230

3589

4149

4543

5047

20562946.2

3812.6

4995

6562

8045.3

11027

12631

15780

18499

22072

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cumulative No. of Turbines Cumulative No. of MW


Growth in the European Market

199

308

235

293

418 408

754

338

560

409

502

577

882.7 866.35

1165.5

15671483.3

3018.5

1558

3148

2649

3627

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Installations Number of farms Installations No. of MW


Mainland China

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FirstHalf

60 20360

590

1160

1650

400450670

1040

1630

2790

4440

4840

2013 - 2019 First Half China offshore windfarmsnew and cumulative installed capacity

(MW)

New Cumulative

Size (MW)Number of

Projects

Guangdong 6685 19

Jiangsu 1500 13

Fujian 1330 10

Zhejiang 400 6

Shandong 1400 6

Hebei 560 1

Liaoning 220 2

Guangxi 510 0

13th and 14th Five-Year Plan of Eight Provinces


Windfarm Roadmap in Taiwan

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 2018

20192017

2020

2025

2030

July

Announcement on

reward measures

for wind power

offshore

demonstration

system

January

Demonstration of

windfarms: Ocean(Formosa

I)、Fuhai(IPP) and

Taipower(TPC)

November Ocean passed

the EIA

April

Offshore windfarm

(Formosa I) 2 wind

turbines transferred

to Taiwan’s 1st and

2nd offshore wind

turbines

August

Ocean power

plant (Formosa I)

obtains the

agreement of the

fishermen's

association

October

Offshore

windfarm(Formosa I)

22 wind turbines were

completed,

The first offshore

windfarm in Taiwan

January

Announcement of

the allocation

method of potential

site capacity

2025-2030

Stage 3:

Exploitation of

block

2017-2020

Stage 1:

Demonstration system

2020-2025

Stage 2: Exploitation of

potential site


Projects with Targeted Grid Connections

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

US

D m

n (

Cu

mu

lati

ve)

Financial Close/Insurance Effective

Estimations of Capex and required CAT limits

Sum of Revenue (24 Months) -USD mn (USD 600,000 per MW)

Sum of Capex - USD mn (USD4mn per MW)

Sum of CAT Limit - USD mn





12

Section 2

Global Loss Statistics


Key Stakeholders of a Typical Offshore Windfarm Project

Equipment Supplier

Equipment suppliers

related to project

engineering, such as

offshore wind turbines,

submarine cables, and

electrical equipment of

offshore booster stations.

Construction

ContractorGeneral contractor or

subcontractor of the

project, such as wind

turbine installation,

submarine cable laying,

shore engineering, and

engineering

transportation

Liability

loss

Other Service

EntitiesIncluding prophase design

and survey entities, as

well as consulting

companies such as

engineering supervision,

insurance, and maritime

surveyors

Professional

liability loss

Owners and

Investors

The investor of a

construction project or an

independent legal entity

specially established by

the investor for the

construction project

Submarine

cable loss

Electrical

equipment loss

Wind turbine lossPersonnel loss

Material

loss

Third party

liability loss

Project main participant

Each project subject faces the challenge of its own risk of loss

Personnel lossPersonnel loss

Material

loss

Material

loss


Loss Statistics

Construction and

Installation Phase

2009-2018

Total loss

EUR

500,000,000

Average loss

EUR

2,000,000

Operation Phase

20010-2018

Total loss

EUR

100,000,000

Average loss

EUR

1,500,000


14

3

9

34

34

3

51

2

8

21

78

CAR claims 2013 - 2018

Blade

Buoy

Contractors Tools

Export Cable

Foundations

Gearbox

Inter-array Cable

Liability

Main Bearing

Nacelle

Substation

Transformer

Vessel

CAR Claims by Category

CAR

Blade 14

Buoy 3

Contractors Tools 9

Export Cable 34

Foundations 34

Gearbox 3

Inter-array Cable 51

Liability 2

Nacelle 8

Substation 21

Transformer 7

Vessel 8

Total 194


OAR claims 2013 - 2018Blade

Buoy

Contractors Tools

Export Cable

Foundations

Gearbox

Inter-array Cable

Liability

Main Bearing

Nacelle

Substation

Transformer

Vessel

OAR Claims by Category

OAR

Blade 9

Buoy 2

Export Cable 21

Foundations 3

Gearbox 17

Inter-array Cable 7

Main Bearing 3

Nacelle 1

Substation 3

Transformer 8

Total 74





17

Section 3

Loss Analysis


Typical Layout of Offshore Windfarm Sites

Offshore windfarm

Offshore

windfarm

24~72kV

collection system

Offshore AC

Substation

Onshore AC

substation (with

reactive power

compensation)

AC grid

72~245kV

submarine cable

Offshore

windfarmOffshore AC

Substation

DC cable

transmission

Offshore HVDC

converter station Onshore HVDC

converter station


Cause of Loss - Collision

The transport ship will be affected

by the wind to drift and collide with

nearby obstructions

Excessive wind increases the difficulty of

construction operations, and the wind

aggravates ship deflection, drift and rolling

motions

The structure of the wind turbine

affects VHF communication,

shipborne AIS equipment,

shipborne GPS system, and

shipborne magnetic compass

Poor visibility causes the ship

operator to make wrong judgments

on distance and position

Waves make construction

ships and transport ships

sway continuously, increase

ship sway amplitude and

reduce stability

The construction entity

did not arrange a guard

ship to guard

Drifting motion due to

the current

Incomplete navigation aid

signs of the wind turbine

tower


Risk components for Collision

Sea IceSurf

Visibility

Typhoon

Ocean

Current

Constru-

ction

Conditions

Wind

Turbine

Equipment

Crew

incomp-

etence

Anchora

-ge and

distance

Ship

traffic

flow

Distance

between

route and

windfarm

Owner's

safety

management

Maritime

management

agency's

navigation

management

Construction

entity safety

management

Safety

Supervision

of

Supervision

Entity

Natural

Factors

Management

Factors

Windfarm

FactorsTraffic

Factors


Direct Loss Composition

Material Cost Labor Cost Ship Cost

The direct cost

of demolition is

nearly

50,000,000

RMB

According to relevant laws and regulations, the damaged wind turbine

foundation for scrap treatment should be completely demolished

(including pile foundation); if the pile foundation cannot be completely

demolished, it should be cut below the seabed bottom


Indirect Loss – BI Components

Production

schedule of basic

manufacturer is

almost saturated,

and the delivery

time is lagging

Engineering

ship needs to

wait for the

appropriate

weather

Engineering

ship repair at

the port





23

Section 4

Catastrophe Modelling


Offshore Wind farm in Taiwan

Wind farms obtained grid-connected qualifications before 2025

and their capacity

MW

Where to build offshore windfarm? When?

Demons

-tration

wind

farms

Potential

sites

Block

develop

-ment

is

expected

1GW

every

year

Ocean; 120

Ocean; 8

Sea Energy; 378

Li Wei, 350 Yun Neng, 348

Yun Neng; 360Taipower Phase

1; 110

Changhua SE; 605

Changhua SW, 337

Changhua SW, 295

Zhang Fang, 452

Zhang Fang, 100

Zhong Neng; 300

Taipower Phase 2, 300

Changhua NW, 583

Hailong 2; 232

Hailong 2; 300

West Island; 48

Hailong 3, 512

Note The selection method for the third stage of block

development has not been announced

Contour-50m

Yun Neng

Zhong Neng

West Island

Changhua SE

Changhua NW

Changhua SW

Taipower Phase 1

Taipower Phase 2

Demo windfarms

Potential site

Hailong 2

Zhang Fang

Hailong 3

Hai Neng

Ocean

Li Wei

Taichung Harbor

Miaoli Zhunan

Changhua Wang

Gong


Earthquake

• Vulnerability curve of each building body

• Wind turbine – supporting structure

• Substation

• High-voltage converter station

• Submarine cable

• Business interruption


Structural Foundation Types

Simple pile

foundation

Monopod

caisson

foundation

< 30 m

Gravity

foundationFour-foot

caisson

foundation

Asymmetrical

tripod caisson

foundation

Jacket caisson

foundation

30 ~ 60 m

Three-legged

caisson

foundation

Tripod

foundation


Typhoon Modelling

• Vulnerability curve of each building body

• Wind turbine

• Substation

• High-voltage converter station

• Submarine cable

• Business interruption

• Cause of loss (disaster)

• Gale

• Precipitation

• Storm surge

• Coverage of existing typhoon models

• By Pass Storm


Information Required

• Model Input

• Geographical location / Water depth

• Sum insured / Number of wind turbines

• Building type / height / building age

• Design information

• Policy situation

• Geological / Regional information

Taiwan offshore wind turbine supply chain

Gearbox

Cabin cover

Wheel hub

Leaf resin

Tower

Underwater foundation

Taishuo Heavy Industry

Advanced composite

Latitude

Formosa Plastics Lilang

Red leaves

Yongguan Energy

Yuan Runfeng

Taiwan Cheng Sheng

Sinosteel Machinery

Century Steel

Ming Rongyuan

Taishuo Heavy Industry

Sinosteel Machinery

Century Steel

Ming Rongyuan

Energetic

Waters Depth/m Technology Application

Shallow

water

0~30 Use fixed single pile foundation and gravity

foundation and proven technology based on

onshore system

Transition

depth zone

30~60 Use fixed jacket foundation or pile group

foundation to provide a stronger base for the

wind turbine; similar to shallow water, more

ships are required for deeper deployment

Deep water >60 The floating structure separated from the

base has better flexibility in site selection;

expands the scale of construction; reduces

offshore operations. Typical structures

include semi-submersible platform, Spar

platform and tension leg platform


DataAssumptionMethodologyAdjustmentReferenceValidation

Business Owner

Insurer

AonAIR

Reinsurer

An on-going joint effort of all participants

• Model purpose

• Limitations of Information/data

• Design parameters

• Model approach

• Adjustment factor

• Engineering Insurance

• Seasonal disaster

• Rescue cost

• Result verification


Prepared by company name / meeting

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Offshore Windfarm Analysisen.airc.org.tw/re/seminar/2009161495601.pdfApril Offshore windfarm...

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