Office of Coast Survey Establishing a Community-Based Extratropical Storm Surge and Tide Model for...

Office of Coast Survey

Establishing a Community-Based Extratropical Storm Surge and Tide Model for NOAA’s Operational Forecasts for the

Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, and Frank Aikman III (NOS/OCS/CSDL)

Andre van der Westhuysen and Hendrik Tolman (NWS/NCEP/EMC)

Steven Earle and Chris Caruso Magee(NWS/NCEP/NCO)

AMS 93rd Annual Meeting January 6-10, 2013


ESTOFS Overview• Purpose

– Provide an operational set of forecast guidance for extratropical storm surge that includes tides

• Note: not designed to accurately model tropical cyclone storm surge due to insufficient resolution and lack of hurricane forcing

– Provide surge+tide boundary conditions for NWS’s Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS)

• Mimics WAVEWATCHIII® (WW3) set-up– Leverages community-based model ADCIRC


ESTOFS: Atlantic Domain

• ADCIRC East Coast tidal database grid (EC2001)

• 254,565 nodes• Coastal resolution ≈ 3 to

5 km• Specifies the tidal forcing

at open ocean boundary at 60o W– Global tidal data inversion

model TPXO 6.2


Operational Set-up

• Run cycle – 4 times per day at 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z– Global Forecast System (GFS) forcing: 10 m winds

and sea level pressure fields input every 3 hours– Approximately 120 min on 32 dual-core processors

• Total 7.75 day simulation– Runs a tidal simulation followed by tide+wind forced

simulation (so surge signal can be isolated)– 6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast– Time step of 5 seconds


ESTOFS Output

• Delivers three types of water level– Combined Water Level (CWL): Surge + tides– Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): Astronomical tides– Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP =

“surge”

• Provides both fields (hourly) and points (6 min)• Generates output on ADCIRC unstructured grid

(NetCDF) and NDFD structured grid (GRIB2)– http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/estofs/prod– http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/– GRIB2 files will be delivered via SBN to AWIPS in 2013 Q3


Water Level Fields

EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD 2.5 km CONUS grid (GRIB2)

PR/VI atPR/VI at1.25 km1.25 km


Water Level Fields

EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD 2.5 km CONUS grid (GRIB2)


ESTOFS Hydrographs

NWS/MDL has created a mirror of its ET-Surge

website to display ESTOFS in the same

manner people are used to viewing ETSS

NWS/MDL has created a mirror of its ET-Surge

website to display ESTOFS in the same

manner people are used to viewing ETSS

http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/


ESTOFS Animations

OPC displays CWL (surge with tide) above Mean Sea Level

(MSL)

OPC displays CWL (surge with tide) above Mean Sea Level

(MSL)

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml


Hindcast Skill AssessmentCombined Water Level (CWL)

East Coast Gulf of Mexico

Maine Key WestDelaware

One year (2009) hindcast evaluated at 48 NOS/CO-OPS

water level stations

One year (2009) hindcast evaluated at 48 NOS/CO-OPS

water level stations


ESTOFS Evaluation: November 2009 “Veteran’s Day Nor’easter”• Hindcast Validation

– The remnants of Hurricane Ida merged with a coastal low mid November

– Max wind gust, 60 mph (27 m/s), was reported along the Delaware coast

– SS ranged from app. 1.0 to 1.5 m

• Compare CO-OPS Observed CWL with ESTOFS and ETSS

– 8557380 Lewes, DE– 8575512 Annapolis, MD– 8651370 Duck, NC

8557380

8575512

8651370


Hindcast Hydrographs Plot shows ESTOFS CWL (red) against observed

CO-OPS water level (black) and NWS’s ETSS

+ CO-OPS tide prediction (blue).

Plot shows ESTOFS CWL (red) against observed

CO-OPS water level (black) and NWS’s ETSS

+ CO-OPS tide prediction (blue).


Superstorm Sandy: GFS Track and Intensity

NHC Best

GFS 10/27 00Z

GFS 10/28 00Z

GFS 10/29 00Z

10/29/12 23:00

Hurricane Sandy transitioned to a very large post-tropical storm as it interacted

with a trough over the eastern US

Hurricane Sandy transitioned to a very large post-tropical storm as it interacted

with a trough over the eastern US


ESTOFS Hydrograph

MHW Shoreline

ESTOFS Boundary

Kings Point, NY

Sandy Hook, NJ

Atlantic City, NJ

ESTOFS Combined Water Level for one forecast cycle the 3 days leading up to

landfall

ESTOFS Combined Water Level for one forecast cycle the 3 days leading up to

landfall

ESTOFS Subtidal Water Level for one forecast cycle the 3 days leading up to

landfall

ESTOFS Subtidal Water Level for one forecast cycle the 3 days leading up to

landfall


Comparison of Peak Subtidal Water Levels: Superstorm Sandy

! 8449130 Nantucket Island, MA! 8452660 Newport, RI! 8452944 Conimicut Light, RI! 8454000 Providence, RI! 8454049 Quonset Point, RI! 8461490 New London, CT! 8467150 Bridgeport, CT! 8510560 Montauk, NY! 8516945 Kings Point, NY! 8531680 Sandy Hook, NJ! 8534720 Atlantic City, NJ! 8536110 Cape May, NJ! 8555889 Brandywine Shoal Light, DE! 8557380 Lewes, DE


Future ESTOFS Plans• ESTOFS Pacific development

began in October for completion FY14– Provide coverage of West Coast,

Gulf of Alaska, Hawaii– Funded via NOS/Coastal Storms

Program• Experimental testing for

Western Alaska– Leveraging USACE grid – WALCC funded partnership to

improve domain and add effect of sea ice on surges


ESTOFS Development Team

• NOS/OCS/CSDL/Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs– Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, Frank Aikman, Mary

Erickson• NWS/NCEP/EMC/Marine Modeling and Analysis

Branch– Andre van der Westhuysen, Ilya Rivin, Arun Chawla,

Avichal Mehra, Hendrik Tolman• NWS/NCEP/NCEP Central Operations

– Steven Earle, Chris Caruso Magee, Becky Cosgrove, Boi Vong

• NWS/NCEP/OPC– Joe Sienkiewicz, Robert Daniels

Office of Coast Survey Establishing a Community-Based Extratropical Storm Surge and Tide Model for...

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