Ofcom Future Wireless World + Spectrum - Dean Bubley

Futurism: Resetting Assumptions for 2030Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

Ofcom Spectrum Forum, 8th February 2017

[email protected] @disruptivedean

Image Credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley unless stated

mailto:[email protected]

Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis

Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991

Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy

Cross-silo, contrarian, independent

Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017

Network Tech, Policy

& Business Models

Communications

Apps & ServicesTelecom-Futurism

Consumer & social trends forward to 2030….


Futurist narratives applied to networks assume too much

IoT = connected everything! Robots, cities, self-driving cars, homes, wearables, factories, AR/VR, drones

Data traffic exponential. Single standard, more capacity, managed QoS, NFV & ultra-low latency

Faster/denser connectivity services, inclusion, more subscribers, some wholesale relationships & sharing

Govt wins big license fees, efficient market from peers competing, economy benefits from IoT-led productivity

Therefore, lots more mobile spectrum needed, in conveniently-large slices, primarily for national MNOs


Assumptions

Assumptions

Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030


Services Capabilities

Competition Substitution

Harmonisation Diversity

Managed Intelligent

Ubiquitous Tailored

What is a service provider?


MNO

MVNO

TowerCo

WISP

Roaming

Car-SP

Private MNO

PS-Org

SliceNO

eSIM SP

Fixed telco

Cable MSO

Biz. MSP

AltNet

Fix-Wireless

Wholesale

FibreCo

SD-WAN

Sec-aaS

Community

Mobile Fixed

Broadcast

Satellite

ISP/Hosting

VenueSP

cPaaS

IndustrySP

CDN

Call Ctr

SaaS

IoT-SP

Other

What is a “service”?

Subscription basis?

Service vs. feature?

Substitution risks?

Infrastructure?

Boundary with software?

Uncertainties

What will the word “service” mean in 2030?

“Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisation”

This definition seems to exclude:

A set of functions owned & self-provisioned by a user

A set of functions offered to a developer by an organisation

A set of functions embedded in a 3rd-party product or other non-radio service

A set of functions made available as a public amenity

A set of functions owned & consumed by an autonomous organisation

A set of functions enshrined as a human right


Wireless “service providers” of the future?


Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere


The same is true for connectivity options:

Substitution parallels competition

Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply


Least-cost

routing

Energy

Management

Quasi-QoS

Multiple

variables

Autonomous

& Offline

Path

Optimisation

Capacity

Planning

IoT data

management

IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements


“National” policies & licenses may not always work


Power station

Car factory

Airport

Oil refinery

Port

Offshore

windfarm

Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi

networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)

Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks


Can “one size fit all”?


Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience


image: www.freeimages.co.uk

What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?

IoT, software & mobile continues to change everything

Revisit the definition of “services” & SPs

Wireless connectivity ownership gets democratised

Substitution = Functional Competition

Industrial IoT will bring many unique requirements

Consider mechanisms for geo-fenced licencing

Many tech pathways for any “outcome”

AI will have profound & unexpected impacts

Question network “monoculture” vs “diversity”


www.deanbubley.com

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysis


http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/

mailto:[email protected]

Ofcom Future Wireless World + Spectrum - Dean Bubley

Technology

Transcript of Ofcom Future Wireless World + Spectrum - Dean Bubley