OECD

“The Internet in South East Asia”

Sam Paltridge, OECD

Organized by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), hosted by the Post and Telegraph Department of Thailand (PTD) and supported by the

Communications Authority of Thailand (CAT), the National Electronics and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC) and the Telephone Organization of

Thailand (TOT).

Bangkok, Thailand, from 21 to 23 November 2001

OECD

OECD - 30 Member countries

In 2001 - 27 OECD countries permit domestic infrastructure competition (26 for all markets)

By 2002 this will increase to 29 countries. However:

» in some countries only one infrastructure is widely available.

» in some countries the same company owns the only alternative infrastructure (e.g. cable networks).

» it takes time to roll out competitive local infrastructure

OECD

Nearly all international routes between OECD countries will be

open to competition by 2002

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Rou

tes

betw

een

OE

CD

cou

ntri

es .

International routes open to competition between OECD countries

1. Liberalisation from 1998 onwards has dramatically increased the number of international routes open to competition.2. This provided the first incentive for incumbents and new players to build significant amounts of wholly owned and managed end to end infrastructure.

OECD

Prices for backbone capacity are falling with

liberalisation

Band-X: Bandwidth Price Index (2Mbit/s)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct-98 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00

London Sydney

London Hong Kong

Composite World .

Los Angeles Tokyo

New York London

Los Angeles Hong Kong

London Amsterdam

London Frankfurt

London Milan

London Madrid

London Brussels

Composite European

New York Frankfurt

London Paris

Source: Band-X

OECD

E-commerce and the Dot-Com bubble

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Nas

daq

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Source: OECD based on Netcraft (www.netcraft.com) and Nasdaq

Sec

ure

Ser

ver

s

Nasdaq Telecom. Index

Nasdaq Computers Index

Number of Secure Servers in theUnited States

OECD

Access to the Internet is still growing and traffic at between

2x and 4x

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1999 2000

Mill

ion

Cable Modem Subscribers in OECD

DSL Subscribers in the OECD area

ISP Dial-up Subscribers in OECD area

OECD

Broadband Growth

0

5

10

15

20

25

1999 2000 Jun-01

Subs

crib

ers

(Mill

ion)

.

Cable Modem

DSL

- By June 2001 there were 22 million cable modem and dsl subscribers in OECD countries. This was up from 14 million at end 2000.- Broadband via two way satellite, fixed wireless and residential Ethernet LANs are still very small and would add less than 5% if shown for June 2001.

OECD

Indicators used to compare performance of policy and

regulatory frameworks

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1999 2000 Jun-01

Subs

crib

er p

er 1

00 in

habi

tant

s .

DSL - Countries where incumbent telco ownscable network or share of cable network

Cable Modem - Countries where incumbenttelco owns cable network or share of cablenetworkDSL - Countries where telco does not owncable and cable penetration is greater than0.05% at June 2001Cable Modem - Countries where telco doesnot own cable and cable penetration is greaterthan 0.05%

Late to Launch

Lower growth of DSL and Cable Modems with incumbent ownership of cable network

OECD

Policy Indicators: Unbundling and DSL Launch - a case of regulators spurring commercial developments?

Jun-94

Feb-95

Oct-95

Jul-96

Mar-97

Nov-97

Jul-98

Mar-99

Dec-99

Aug-00

Apr-01

Dec-01

National Regulator or EuropeanCommission Signals UnbundlingCommercial DSL Launch

1. DSL was launched, before the regulator signalled unbundling would be introduced, in only two countries - Belgium and Korea.

2. Unbundling not required in Mexico, New Zealand (Review in two years), Turkey (Monopoly) and Slovak Republic (Monopoly)

OECD

Internet Hosts (Selected Countries)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Source: Netsizer

Internet Hosts per 1000 inhabitants, October 2001

OECD

Secure Servers (Selected Countries)

(source: Netcraft, OECD)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Secure Servers per One Million inhabitants, October 2001

OECD

Internet Subscribers

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Internet Subscribers per 100 inhabitants,2000

OECD

Online Time per Month

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

2Q1996

3Q1996

4Q1996

1Q1997

2Q1997

3Q1997

4Q1997

1Q1998

2Q1998

3Q1998

4Q1998

1Q1999

2Q1999

3Q1999

4Q1999

1Q2000

2Q2000

3Q2000

4Q2000

AOL (United States)

XTRA (New Zealand)Freeserve UK

France (All ISPs)Portugal Telecom (Portugal)

Swisscom (Switzerland)Telia (Sweden)

T-Online (Germany)

OECD

Internet Intensity Drives E-commerce

Sw eden

Australia

Czech Rep.France

Germany

Iceland

Ireland

New Zealand

Norw ay

Portugal

Sw itzerland

United Kingdom

United States

R2 = 0.7259

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Average Online Time per Month multiplied by Internet Penetration, 2000

Secure Servers per 100 000 inhabitants, October 2001

OECD

Broadband Penetration

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Bro

adba

nd P

enet

rati

on p

er 1

00 I

nhab

itan

ts, J

une

2001

OECD

DSL Coverage

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

DS

L C

ov

era

ge

.

Coverage by 2003 (%)

Coverage by 2002 (%)

Coverage by 2001 (%)

Coverage 2000 (%)

OECD

Broadband Pricing Comparisons

How much bandwidth will US$1 buy a user with DSL?

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Tota

l Dow

nstr

eam

/Ups

trea

m S

peed

. (K

bps)

per

US$

per

mon

th

Countries mentioned twice include offers at different speeds.

OECD

High growth countries tend to have an DSL offer below US$40

per month

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mon

thly

DSL

Pri

ce, U

S$

Countries mentioned twice include offers at different speeds.

OECD

Internet Access (30 Hours per Month)

$-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

Cambodia Laos Average ofAsian

CountriesShown

Vietnam OECDAverage

(Off-Peak)

Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore

Source: Data for Asia (ITU), O ECD

Tax

Total ISP

Usage

Monthly line rental

OECD

Competition among ISPs drives down prices

$-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

Source: O ECD, ITU, Netcraft

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Internet AccessCost ( ISP andUsage - excludingline rental - 30Hours)

Number of ISPs

OECD

Leased Line Connections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Source: Netcraft, OECD

Nu

mb

er

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Per

On

e M

illi

on

In

hab

itan

ts

Leased Lines Connected to theInternet (December 2000)

Leased Lines Connected to theInternet per Million Inhabitants(December 2000)

OECD

Unmetered dial-up rates have stimulated e-commerce in UK.

Broadband is next step.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Secu

re S

erve

rs p

er O

ne M

illi

on I

nhab

itan

ts

.

United States

New Zealand

Canada

Australia

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Italy

Source: Netcraft, OECD

OECD

Growth of Secure Servers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Source: Netcraft

Num

ber

of S

ecur

e Se

rver

s

Hong Kong

Singapore

Malaysia

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

Vietnam

Cambodia

Laos

Note: October 2001 data used new methodology with increased filtering thereby discarding sites whose certificates expired more than two months before the start of the survey month

OECD

More Information

» www.oecd.org/sti/telecom