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OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - World Energy Outlook
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Transcript of OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - World Energy Outlook
© O
ECD/
IEA
2015
Paul SimonsDeputy Executive Director
Paris, 4 February 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015
The start of a new energy era?
2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016 Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China
Signals turn green ahead of key Paris climate summit Pledges of 150+ countries account for 90% of energy-related emissions Renewables capacity additions at a record-high of 130 GW in 2014 Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global
subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014
Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system in the right direction?
© OECD/IEA 2015
Mtoe
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
Demand growth in Asia – the sequel
By 2040, India’s energy demand closes in on that of the United States, even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average
EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
Japan LatinAmerica
MiddleEast
SoutheastAsia
Africa China India
Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014-2040
© OECD/IEA 2015
but – for oil & gas – the gains are offset by the move to more complex fields
Policies spur innovation and tip the balance towards low-carbon
Costs in 2040 for different energy sources/technologies, relative to 2014
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Solar PV Onshorewind
Efficient industrial heat production
Efficientlighting
Upstream oil and gas
Innovation reduces the costs of low-carbon technologies & energy efficiency,
© OECD/IEA 2015
A new balancing item in the oil market?
Change in production (2015-2020) of US tight oil for a range of 2020 oil prices
Tight oil has created more short-term supply flexibility, but there is no guarantee that the adjustment mechanism in oil markets will be smooth
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
$40/bbl $50/bbl $60/bbl $70/bbl $80/bbl $90/bbl $100/bbl
mb/d
© OECD/IEA 2015
Diverging paths of OPECand Non-OPEC
Oil output change 2014-2040
Brazil and Canada are leading non-OPEC in output growth,but cannot offset total non-OPEC decline
mb/d
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Iraq
Brazil
Canada
Rest of Non-OPEC
Rest of OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2015
If oil prices stay lower for much longer: what would it take, what would it mean?
Much more resilient non-OPEC supply & higher output from a stable Middle East could maintain downward pressure on oil prices
Oil importers gain: each $1/bbl reduction is $15 billion off import bills; major window of opportunity to press ahead with subsidy reform
If lower prices persist for decades, reliance on Middle East oil gets back to 1970s levels; risk of a sharp market rebound if investment falls short
Reduction in revenues to key producers & boost to global oil demand growth make a prolonged period of lower prices progressively less likely
© OECD/IEA 2015
Natural gas demand and supply in developing Asia
The big opportunities & uncertainties for natural gas are in Asia
Developing Asia accounts for almost half of the rise in global gas demand & 75% of the increase in imports, but gas faces strong competition from renewables & coal
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
Demand Production
bcm
Conventional
Unconventional
Additionalto 2040
2014
, 2014, 2014 & 2040, 2040
Imports
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energydemand
GDP
A new chapter in China’s growth story
Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China’s economy favouring expansion of services, mean less energy is required to generate economic growth
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ener
gy d
eman
d (M
toe)
20
40
60
GDP
(trill
ion
dolla
rs, P
PP)
Energydemand
GDP
Total primary energy demand & GDP in ChinaEnergy demand in China
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Coal
Oil
Gas
NuclearRenewables
Energydemand
GDP
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ener
gy d
eman
d (M
toe)
20
40
60
GDP
(trill
ion
dolla
rs, P
PP)
© OECD/IEA 2015
India moving to the centre of the world energy stage
Change in demand for selected fuels, 2014-2040
New infrastructure, an expanding middle class & 600 million new electricity consumers mean a large rise in the energy required to fuel India’s development
Solar PV
0
500
1 000
1 500(TWh)
Oil
-16
-8
0
8
16
24(mb/d)
Coal
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500(Mtce)
China
IndiaUnited StatesEuropean Union
AfricaMiddle East
Japan
India
China
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
UnitedStates
Japan
European Union
India
SoutheastAsia
Africa
European Union
United States
© OECD/IEA 2015
Power is leading the transformationof the energy system
Global electricity generation by source
Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source
3 000 12 000 15 000TWh
Changeto 2040
2014Renewables
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Otherrenewables
Of which:
6 000 9 000
© OECD/IEA 2015
Efficiency measures on the rise, but significant potential still exists
Share of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption
Energy efficiency policies are introduced in more countries and sectors;they continue to slow demand growth but more can be done
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2014 2040
Industry Steam boilers Process heat Motors
Buildings Heating/Cooling Lighting/Appliances
Transport Cars Trucks Ships
© OECD/IEA 2015
The coverage of climate pledges is impressive
Climate pledges for COP21 are consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C, with investment needs of $13.5 trillion in low-carbon technologies & efficiency to 2030
Pledges submitted
Not submitted pledges
© OECD/IEA 2015
Climate pledges decouple power sector emissions from electricity demand
World electricity generation
The share of low-carbon power generation grows to almost 45% in 2030 so that power emissions remain flat, while electricity demand grows by more than 40%
10
20
30
40
Gene
ratio
n (th
ousa
nd T
Wh)
and related CO2 emissions
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Emiss
ions
(Gt)
5
10
15
20
CO2 emissions
Electricity generation
Electricity generation
CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2015
A 2 °C pathway is still some further efforts away
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt
Baseline
450 Scenario
17.9 Gt
A peak in emissions by around 2020 is possible using existing policies & technologies; technology innovation and RD&D will be key to achieving the longer-term goal.
Energy efficiency
Fuel & technology switching in end-usesRenewables
Nuclear
CCS
Other
© OECD/IEA 2015
COP21: a historic milestone for the global energy sector Sends a clear message that there is global engagement on the shift to low-
carbon energy systems, with 187 countries having submitted pledges and 150 world leaders coming to Paris to support the agreement.
Strengthened global temperature goal “well below 2°C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. To achieve this, Parties aim to peak global emissions as soon as possible and make rapid reductions thereafter.
Each Party will submit a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC, i.e. emissions reduction goal/actions) every five years. Implementation of NDCs will be tracked and reviewed. Support for implementation of developing country NDCs will be provided in finance, technology and capacity building.
The Paris Agreement sets a framework enabling a below-2°C future, but success will ultimately depend on countries’ actions through their successive NDCs.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Conclusions
COP21 sends strong signal for a low-carbon transition – focus must turn to implementation, tracking & building ambition
Low prices bring gains to consumers, but can also sow the seeds of future risks to energy security: no room for complacency
India’s energy needs are huge: there is a strong shared interest to support India’s push for clean & efficient technologies
China’s transition to a more diversified & much less energy-intensive model for growth re-shapes energy markets
With looming energy security & environmental challenges, international cooperation on energy has never been more vital
© O
ECD/
IEA
2015
www.worldenergyoutlook.org