World Energy Outlook 2008 - OECD

8/8/2019 World Energy Outlook 2008 - OECD

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OECD/IEA - 2008

OECD/IEA - 2008


2/13

OECD/IEA - 2008

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030an average rate of increase

of 1.6% per year

with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise

World primary energy demand in the

Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable!


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OECD/IEA - 2008

Change in oil demand by region

in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

China

Middle East

India

Other Asia

Latin America

E. Europe/Eurasia

Africa

OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

mb/d

All of the growth in oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the

Middle East & India each about 20% & other emerging Asian economies most of the rest


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OECD/IEA - 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb/d Natural gas liquids

Non-conventional oil

Crude oil - yet to bedeveloped (inc. EOR)or found

Crude oil - currentlyproducing fields

World oil production by source

in the Reference Scenario

64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030six times the current

capacity of Saudi Arabia

to meet demand growth & offset decline


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A sea change: world oil & gas production by

company type in the Reference Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2015 2030

mb/d

0

750

1 500

2 250

3 000

3 750

4 500

2006 2015 2030

Bcm

NOCs Private companies

Oil Gas

Almost 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from

national companies

on the assumption that investment is forthcoming


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EU natural gas market outlook

EU import dependency rises from 58% today to 86% in 2030 as a result of declining

domestic production and increasing demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2030

Bcm Imports - other countries

Imports - Middle East

Imports - Africa

Imports - Russia and

other TEDomestic production


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The 11 members of GECF account for close to three quarters of global gas reserves,

while just 2 of them

Russia & Iran

account for over 40% .

World natural gas reserves and Gas Exporting

Countries Forum (GECF)

World total: 179 Tcm (2008)


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Energy-related CO2 emissions

in the Reference Scenario

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD

countries

three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gigatonnes International

marine bunkersand aviation

Non-OECD - gas

Non-OECD - oil

Non-OECD - coal

OECD - gas

OECD - oil

OECD - coal


10/13 OECD/IEA - 2008

Reductions in energy-related CO2emissions in the climate-policy scenarios

While technological progress is needed to achieve some emissions reductions, efficiency

gains and deployment of existing low-carbon energy accounts for most of the savings

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gigatonnes

Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

CCS

Renewables & biofuels

Nuclear

Energy efficiency

550Policy

Scenario

450Policy

Scenario

54%

23%

14%

9%


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World energy-related CO2 emissions

in 2030 by scenario

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,

even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

Non-OECD

World

World

OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

Gigatonnes


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Total oil production in 2030 by

scenario

Curbing CO2 emissions would improve energy security by cutting demand for fossil fuels, but

even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production increases by 12 mb/d from now to 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 Reference Scenario2030

550 Policy Scenario2030

450 Policy Scenario2030

Non-OPEC

OPEC

9 mb/d16 mb/dm

b/d


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Summary & conclusions

Current energy trends are patently unsustainable socially,environmentally, economically

Oil will remain the leading energy source but...

> The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain

> The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, withnational companies in the ascendancy

Energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected

We need a major decarbonisation of the worlds energy system --

Copenhagen is crucial

Addressing environmental issues will substantially improve energy

security

Financial crisis can plant the seeds for an energy investment crisis

World Energy Outlook 2008 - OECD

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