October 5, 2013
description
Transcript of October 5, 2013
October 5, 2013
Diego VillarrealSHP – Columbia University
Energy Flows & Emissions
2
How much energy?
• The world currently consumes about 12,700 Mtoe of primary energy. This roughly equivalent of detonating 905 Hiroshima bombs per hour!
• Most of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels.
3
Which sectors?
4
Country Energy Balance
FLOW/PRODUCTCoal and Peat Crude Oil Petroleum
Products Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal, solar, etc Biomass Electricity Heat
Transfers 0 25517.95 -26616.927 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Statistical differences 13742.513 10674.405 406.604 4535.722 0 0 0 -93.856 0 0
Electricity plants 427255.165 0 8356.37 134087.177 216357.758 23700.74 14657.452 11801.897 -331867.292 0CHP plants 12469.806 0 2983.248 38547.903 0 0 0 7368.956 -26356.592 -12430.113Heat plants 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Gas works 1943.936 0 0 -1176.513 0 0 0 0 0 0
Petroleum refineries 0 825139.885 -832196.004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Coal transformation 4855.623 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Liquefaction plants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other transformation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Own use 1172.036 0 45771.728 46220.907 0 0 0 0 25502.096 4146.332
Distribution losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22420.888 1491.593Industry sector 21950.443 0 27424.756 105689.131 0 0 105.812 29654.862 68720.364 5366.863
Domestic aviation 0 0 47744.153 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Road 0 0 480202.792 677.472 0 0 0 22173.887 0 0Rail 0 0 8081.872 0 0 0 0 0 671.488 0
Other transport 0 0 4304.542 13903.106 0 0 0 0 0 0Residential 0 0 22159.009 111056.366 0 0 1407.415 10292.041 117154.274 0
Commercial and public services 1588.163 0 15717.414 71687.975 0 0 80.619 2263.371 113812.916 1425.326Other sectors 0 0 13971.878 0 0 0 0 341.078 12870.416 0
Non-energy use 0 0 121045.474 8978.479 0 0 0 0 0 0
• Simplified Energy Balance USA 2009
IEA – Energy balances 2009
5
Primary Energy World & Regional
• What can you say about these graphs?BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012
6
Energy Intensity• Energy
Intensity = Unit of energy/Unit of GPD
• Why do you think this is an important metric?
• What does this metric leave out?
EIA – International Energy Statistics
7
Per capita consumption
8
Issues with current infrastructure
• So what is the main issue with the current energy mix/infrastructure?○ Environmental:
• Pollution in the extraction/processing/burning of FF.• Impacts on human health
○ Air Quality○ Drinking water.
○ Finite resource• Dwindling reserves?• Cost of production? (We’ll discuss this later).
○ Climate Change• CO2 emissions.• CH4 emissions.
9
Where do our emissions come from?
10
History of emissions
11
Emissions by country
EIA – International Energy Statistics
12
Emissions by fuel type• Most emissions come from the burning
of coal for electricity generation & oil for transportation.
• Keep in mind that the pie has gotten much bigger!
• In 1973 ~ 14 Gt• In 2010 ~ 30 Gt• What does this tell you about decarbonizing the
economy?
13
Emissions intensity• Amount of CO2 per
unit of GDP.• This metric tells you
how “carbon intense” a specific economy is.
• Many factors play into a country’s emission intensity:○ Structure of
economy○ Efficient use of
energy○ Availability of low
carbon energy sources.
14
GDP and CO2 emissions
15
Emissions per unit of energy
• Carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed. • A measurement of how “carbonized” the energy
sector is. • What obvious trends do you see?
16
Relating all the concepts• Can we come up with a general
equation that relates the different factors that affect overall CO2 emissions?○ KAYA identity:
• Limitations:○Only accounts for energy related
emissions.○Gain/Loss of carbon sinks.
17
Energy mix in the future• CO2 emissions puts a limit on the amount of
fossil fuels that we can use without wrecking the climate.
• Eventually emissions need to go to zero.• Because of this, a decarbonization of our
energy system is crucial (inevitable?).• What limits us from getting there?○ Massive deployment○ Cheap low carbon sources
• Electricity• Fuels
○ Cheap intermittent energy storage○ New technologies for steel and cement.
18
Energy transitions• What can history teach us about past
energy transitions?○ Tend to be slow○ Fuel mix has increased with time.○Wood Coal Gas? Renewables?
19
The ages of energy
Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 2013
20
Future Demand & Investment
• Future demand is expected to come mostly from developing markets.
• $37 trillion dollars are expected to be invested in the next 20 years in primary energy (Citi).
• What is happening is substitution in developed markets and new capacity being built in developing markets.
21
Energy Transitions - Power• Renewables are the fastest growing power source
(on a % basis). • By 2016 expected to become second most important
electricity source. 25% by 2018
22
Energy Transitions - Power• We’ve seen
dramatic reduction in the cost of PV and wind.
• PV seen LR ~ 22% and expected to be between 30-40% in the near term
• Wind LR ~ 7.4%
23
Energy Transitions - Transport
• Expansions in biofuel production is expected to happen at much smaller rates than for power production.
• Most of all the biofuels are EtOH coming from sugar cane or corn.
• Serious questions regarding the energy payback and sustainability of some of these fuels.
• Still very small fraction of overall energy in transportation.
• Very challenging sector to decarbonize.
24
Energy Transitions - Transportation
• Cost competitiveness of biofuels still a major issue.
25
Energy Transitions - Heat• Renewables are
starting to play a larger role in heating sector.
• Most growth comes from OECD countries.
• About 8% of total final energy used for heating
• Most important source is biomass followed by solar thermal & geothermal