Ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Atlantic storm track response to climate change Tim Woollings...
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Transcript of Ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Atlantic storm track response to climate change Tim Woollings...
Ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Atlantic storm track response
to climate change
Tim Woollings
With Jonathan Gregory, Joaquim Pinto, Mark Reyers and David Brayshaw
Storm track changes as described in AR4
Yin 2005
Storm tracks shift polewards, consistent with change in the eddy-driven jets.
Upper vs lower level Teq – Tpole
Standard deviation of 2-6 day MSLP (ctrs 1/10 hPa)2080-99 (SRESA1B) – 1960-2000 (20C3M)Ulbrich et al (2008)
Regional storm track response more complicated
20c3m
IPCC AR4
How much uncertainty arises from differing MOC responses?
Use 20c3m (20th century control) 1960-99 and sresa1b 2060-99.
Method 1: Regression across model space
Δ MOC
Δ TAt each point in space:
Using EOF1 of SST as a proxy for Δ MOC to expand the sample size:
Storm track response regressed on MOC response
Estimating the ensemble mean storm track from the ensemble mean MOC
Method 2: Compare coupled and slab models (all scaled to 3K warming)
Coupled models
Slab models
Coupled - slab
Method 3: Compare with response to MOC hosing
Summary
• There is considerable uncertainty in the response of the North Atlantic jet stream / storm track to anthropogenic forcing.
• Neither climate sensitivity or control biases can explain the spread.
• Differing MOC responses account for about half of the spread between different climate models.
• Slab runs and atmosphere-only experiments show that there is some causality from ocean to atmosphere.
• The storm track response should be considered a coupled problem.
Woollings, T., J. M. Gregory, J. G. Pinto, M. Reyers & D. J. Brayshaw (2012). Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean-atmosphere coupling, Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/ngeo1438