Observations on the US Economy – A Quick Look at the Data Silicon Valley, California Professor...
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Transcript of Observations on the US Economy – A Quick Look at the Data Silicon Valley, California Professor...
Observations on the US Economy – A Quick Look at the Data
Silicon Valley, California
Professor David Kleykamp
The Ten Topics of Interest to Most People
1. Economic Growth2. Unemployment3. Consumer Price Inflation4. Productivity Growth5. Wages6. Fiscal Deficits and National Debt7. Trade Balance8. Consumer Confidence 9. Housing Market10.Distribution of Income and Wealth
#1. Economic Growth
-- Slow to Average Growth since Late 2009 (about 2.5%) -- Low Growth from 2011-- Weak Recovery Means Unemployment Cannot be Reduced
Okun’s LawA Relation Between Economic Growth and Unemployment
We Need 2% – 2.5% Growth for One Year to Reduce Unemployment by 1%
#2. Unemployment Rate
Right Direction , But Moving Down Too Slowly Unemployment is Very Costly – Wasted Resources, Human Tragedy,
and Loss of Self-Esteem
People that Lose Their Jobs Will Turn to More Radical Answers if There are Few Choices – Just Like in Steinbeck’s book The Grapes of Wrath
#3. Consumer Price Inflation
Inflation is Less of an Economic Threat – Costs are Low and Predictable
Most Expectations are for 2.5% Inflation, but Clearly This Will Drop
Inflation is a Secret Tax on Your Holding of Money -- The Government Prints the Money and Makes Everyone Else’s Holdings of Money Less Valuable. Remember More of Something Reduces its Value, Always.
Print Too Much Money and Its Value Goes Down.
#4. Productivity GrowthNon-Farm Business Productivity Growth, Annualized
Productivity Growth is Pro-Cyclical, Weak and Unstable Growth Recently,
Some Seasonal Factors at Play
How Can Firms Raise the Average Productivity of their Workforce?
Investment, Training, Technology and Know-How, and Market Scale
#5. Wages
Wage Growth has Become Slower and Less Stable in Recent Years – Probably Due to Lower Inflation and Less Stable Growth in Productivity
Growth in Manufacturing Wages has been Very Low Recently
Although a Better Performance Appeared in 2012
#6. Federal Government Fiscal Deficits and National Debt
The US Fell Off the Fiscal Cliff Long Ago – It Just Hasn’t Hit the Ground Yet
The National Debt Now Stands at 100% of the GDP
The US has improved its export growth over the last few years
However, it is hard to pay back debts internationally-- if you can’t run trade surpluses or you don’t want to print money to
pay it back
#7. The Trade Balance
#8. Consumer Confidence
American Consumers Remain in a Mildly Blue Funk, but are Slowly Recovering
#9. The Housing Market
The Drop in New Housing Starts has Hit Bottom and is Recovering.But the Return to Normalcy is Slow and Painful
#10. The Distribution of Income and Wealth
Like Most Countries The US Saw Increased Inequality in the Distribution of Income From 1979 - 2007
Interesting Drop in Labor Compensation as a Percentage of National Income – Includes Benefit Packages
Thanks for Your Patience and Attention