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www.data61.csiro.au
Global Megatrends
Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD
Implications for built infrastructure and city designs
www.data61.csiro.au
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Global Megatrendsand their Impact on Cities
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz2 |
More From Less
Planetary Pushback
The Silk Highway
Forever Young
Digital Immersion
Porous Boundaries
Great Expectations
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Why a Venn Diagram?
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Ice Cream
Car TripChildren
Use activity books and
games
Take normal
careEffective strategy not
yet identified by humankind
Use serviettes
Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?
Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future
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More from Less
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz5 |
The world consumes 33% more energy, and 70% more electricity, by the year 2040
The energy mix changes. By 2040, oil & coal decrease share by 9%. Renewables increase by 5%. Gas and nuclear increase by 2%.
Renewables overtake coal for electricity by 2030
The world will spend US$68 Trillion on energy infrastructure by 2040
Artists impression on solar farm on Queensland’s sunshine coast. Will generate electricity for 500 homes. Source: Sunshine Coast Council.
Energy Supply and Demand
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Energy Storage
Source: Valentin Muenzel et al (2014) The Conversation. Drawing upon data by the University of Melbourne and IBM.
“Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs between $0.08-$0.13/kWh, 30-40% below retail price of electricity in many markets globally. In markets heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation, the ratio of coal based wholesale electricity to solar electricity cost was 7:1 four years ago. This ratio is now less than 2:1 and could likely approach 1:1 over the next 12-18 months”.
- Deutsche Bank, Markets Research, Feb 2015
Source: David van der Mark, Flickr
The Tesla Model S P90D accelerates 0 to 100km/hr in 2.9 seconds; faster than the Ferrari 458 Italia at 3.0 seconds. It retails for ~US$120,000 (25% of that is the battery) [source: Wikipedia, www.automoblog.net).
Source: Pixabay
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz6 |
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Mining Above the Ground
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One tonne of ore body yields 1-5 grams of gold
One tonne of old computer circuits yields 250 grams of gold
Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy - March 28 2014How to create wealth from waste
Images CSIRO
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Planetary Pushback
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So far 2015 was the warmest year on record. And 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001.
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Climate Change
1900-1920 1920-1940 1940-1960
1960-1980 1980-2000 2000-2016
Difference from 30 year average (1951 – 1980)
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz10 |
Deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance every year by 2050
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The Silk Highway
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz12 |
A Shifting World Economy
Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Making Cities in 20 Years - What Took Europe 400 Years
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Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cnStatistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
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The Rise of the Services SectorExample ; Transition in the Chinese Economy
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10
20
30
40
50
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Perc
ent o
f Val
ue A
dd to
the
Econ
omy
Industry
Services
Agriculture
Source: World Bank Indicators
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By 2030 China and India alone will account for more than 60% of combined OECD and G20 STEM graduates.
The BRIICS countriesa will produce three-quarters of global STEM graduates
Source: OECD (2015) Education Indicators in Focus
BRIICS = Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa.
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Forever Young
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The Ageing Population – Australia
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050
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Worldwide Obesity Prevalence Rates
“In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide”
The Lancet 2014 384, 766-781. Ng et al.
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Rising Healthcare Expenditure
Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship
Today we spend 25 percent of all government taxes in
Australia on healthcare.
By the year 2043 it will be 40 percent.
Perc
ent o
f GDP
, Aus
tral
ia
Source: AIHW health expenditure database
9.3
5.2 4.73.5
1.6
22.6
12.1
21.5
10.1
8.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cardiovascular Mental Neurological Cancer Diabetes
Expe
nditu
re P
er Y
ear (
A$ B
illio
ns) 2002–03
2032–33
Source: ACE–Prevention: Deakin University and University of Queensland.
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The pandemic of physical inactivity
“Physical inactivity is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide”- Prof Dr Harold Kohl et al., 2012 The Lancet
In Australia Physical inactivity is main cause for 21–25% of breast & colon cancers, 27% of diabetes and 30% of heart disease.
Only one-third of children undertook the recommended 60 minutes of daily physical activity.
60% of Australian adults did less than the recommended 30 minutes of moderate intensity physical activity per day.
- Australian Government, Department of HealthSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2013 - Australian Health Survey: Physical Activity, 2011-12. ABS Catalogue number 4364.0.55.004
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Rising Healthcare Expenditure
Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship
Today we spend 25
percent of all
government taxes in
Australia on
healthcare.
By the year 2043 it
will be 40 percent.
Perc
ent o
f GD
P, A
ustr
alia
Source: AIHW health expenditure database
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22 | Source: Foster & Partners Designed Bikeway shown by CNN
If we build them they will be used (shown in numerous studies) – and they’ll get healthier (mental + physical).
City Designs That Get People Moving
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz23 |
Digital Immersion
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Computing Speed
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200
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600
800
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1200
1400
1600
1971
1972
1974
1978
1982
1985
1989
1993
1995
1997
1999
2000
2003
2006
2008
2010
2012
Tran
sist
ors
(mill
ions
)
Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years
And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster …
Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?
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The Internet of Things
20062 Billion Devices
201515 Billion Devices
2020200 Billion Devices
Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia
225 times more functionality
40,000 times more functionality
Metcalfe's LawValue of a network = n2
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The Data Smart, Highly Automated and Digitally Connected City
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There Are Other Options …In Pittsburgh you can now select “Automated” when you order a taxi on your smartphone… Automated fleet cars are a transport game changer.
Source: ABC News
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Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology“A distributed ledger is a consensus of replicated, shared, and synchronized digital data geographically spread across multiple sites, countries, and/or institutions”- Blockchain Technologies
A blockchain is a type of distributed ledger comprised of highly tamper resistant digital data records stored in packages called “blocks”.- Definition Adapted from Blockchain Technologies
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Task Automation and Job ReplacementBetween 40% to 55% of current jobs to be automated?
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47% of Jobs in America at
High Risk of Automation
Michael OsbourneOxford University
Learn to race with the
Machine, not against it
Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAffee
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
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What Jobs do People Get? After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in …
20 mins.
The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
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Photographers Versus Lab Staff
31 |ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Empl
oym
ent (
'000
s)
Australian Photographic Industry
Photographers Developers/printers
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Porous Boundaries
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Rethinking the Theory of the Firm?Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
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Scenario Planning of the P2P Economy: A Case Study of Uber
New Data in a study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016
Scenario B4: Regulations bite, trust & confidence breaches
Scenario B3: Vehicle fleet automation
Scenario B2: Natural S-shaped levelling off
Scenario A2: Nothing much happens
Scenario A1: Customer trust
& quality perceptions won
Proxy measure for Market Share
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz35 |
Why All The Unusual (?) Stuff Might be Happening
Source: Harvard Business Review, 2016
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Great Expectations
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Is it really just C8H10N4O2 ?
The Experience Economy 2.0
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Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz38 | Source: World Economic Forum and VoxEUDataset for the United States
Even In a Digital World; People Still Like People
Towards a cashless society (we pay with smartphones or fingerprints, retinal scans, body movements…)?
More tech = more complex finances = more consultations
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Australian Bureau of Statistics: 4114.0 - Attendance at Selected Cultural Venues and Events, Australia
23%
34%
65%
85%
28%
34%
66%
86%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Museums Libraries Cinemas Total cultural places
2006 2014
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al A
ustr
alia
n Po
pula
tion
And people still like the physical world…
Percentage of Australian Population Visiting a Cultural Venue (per year)
Despite ever growing virtual options
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The Innovation ImperativeNow is the time to rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational structure because…
… Elephants must learn to dance.
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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Prod
uctiv
ity In
dex
Twenty Years of Productivity in AustraliaSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics “…In the long term
it’s everything”
- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Laureate, Economics
Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger.
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Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson42 |
The Innovator’s DilemmaWorld Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen
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The Data61 Insight TeamResearch excellence combined with business relevance
Please connect with us @stefanhajkowicz
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www.data61.csiro.au
Data61Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
t +61 2 9123 4567e [email protected] www.data61.csiro.au
Thank you