Asia Pacific

Economic Snapshot and Outlook

1. A Very Varied Region

2. Different Economies and Outlooks

3. Risks

4. The China Focus

5. Don’t forget Japan and India

6. But China is the Wildcard

7. APAC Travel Management Centres

8. APAC TM Challenges

by Tony O’Connor of Butler Caroye

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With very different lifestyles

Based on very different incomesA

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Generated by very different economiesD

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The current mixed bag of economic performanceD

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Ou

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oks Very different experiences in the downturn, and different outlooks

Some economies are more exposed and fragile

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ks

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Having very different debt levels, and trade flows

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ks

And varying stimulus firepower, and growing asset bubble risks

The China Focus

Japan is much bigger. Why is China the focus? Because ...

China = the cashed up factory of the world. Many now depend.

Japan and India

Japan = the massive Asian economy, stuck in debt recovery mud

India = the smaller, more internal, high growth, steadying hand

China is the Wildcard

The 2 Year Risk = “Chimerica” being replaced by a massive one-off

stimulus. So either Chinese internal demand takes off, or external

demand recovers quickly, or ... ???

The 1 Year Risk = the classic emerging market asset bubble. The foam is reforming ...

The Anytime Risk = The inevitable earthquake of revaluing the yuan

The 20 Year Risk = A tip of the “Thousand Year Disunity Cycle”

Whatever happens to demand, stocks, currency or politically, the economic consequences will flow through America to the world.

Asian Pacific TM Centres

MumDelBang

ShangBei

Tokyo

SinHonk

MelSyd

Developing Markets

•Thailand•Indonesia•Korea•Taiwan•Philippines•Vietnam

and their attributes

very different

Asian Pacific Challengesfor travel buyers

TMCs are mostly not seamless and integrated across the region.

Different systems, processes, P&Ls, cultures

Systems differ, and vary greatly in availability and quality – OBTs,

EMSs, GDSs

Accommodation: Assess DP carefully, and grab the rate dips

Commissions: Huge variations in levels and attitudes

Be very careful of regional and global deals covering Asia Pac.

Justify why, not why not.