(NY-24) Sept 25 John Katko Key Findings Memo
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MEMORANDUM TO: JOHN KATKO FOR CONGRESS FROM: PATRICK LANNE—PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES SUBJECT: NEW YORK CD-24 RECENT POLL RESULTS DATE: SEPTEMBER 25, 2014 Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a district-wide survey of 400 likely voters, reached via landline and cell phone on behalf of the Katko for Congress campaign. The poll was conducted September 22-23, 2014 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is to review some of the key findings of that poll. Key Findings John has momentum. John has cut Maffei’s lead in half and now trails on the ballot test by just three points, 43%-46% -- within the poll’s margin of error. John’s message is moving voters; among those who recall his TV advertising (58% of the sample) John beats Maffei, 49%-45%. Voters want a change from Maffei. Our July poll found that Dan Maffei is a wounded incumbent. His political position has slipped even further since. Dan Maffei’s personal image is highly polarized, 43% favorable – 41% unfavorable – a net eleven point negative swing since July (47%-34%). Additionally, 54% of voters would prefer a new person rather than re-elect Maffei. New York CD-24 Key Findings Page 1
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A poll conducted by a GOP firm found John Katko trails U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei by three points in the 24th Congressional District race.
Transcript of (NY-24) Sept 25 John Katko Key Findings Memo
MEMORANDUM
TO: JOHN KATKO FOR CONGRESS
FROM: PATRICK LANNE—PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
SUBJECT: NEW YORK CD-24 RECENT POLL RESULTS
DATE: SEPTEMBER 25, 2014
Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a district-wide survey of 400 likely voters, reached via landline and cell phone on behalf of the Katko for Congress campaign. The poll was conducted September 22-23, 2014 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is to review some of the key findings of that poll.
Key Findings
John has momentum. John has cut Maffei’s lead in half and now trails on the ballot test by just three points, 43%-46% -- within the poll’s margin of error. John’s message is moving voters; among those who recall his TV advertising (58% of the sample) John beats Maffei, 49%-45%.
Voters want a change from Maffei. Our July poll found that Dan Maffei is a wounded incumbent. His political position has slipped even further since. Dan Maffei’s personal image is highly polarized, 43% favorable – 41% unfavorable – a net eleven point negative swing since July (47%-34%). Additionally, 54% of voters would prefer a new person rather than re-elect Maffei.
Undecided voters look favorable to John. Importantly, as John’s name ID grows, undecided voters are primed to break in his direction. Undecided voters have a negative personal impression of Maffei (26%-43%), would strongly prefer a new person (15% re-elect – 55% new person) and a near majority (47%) say that what they have seen, read or heard about Maffei has given them a “less favorable” impression. By a strong margin (50%-26%), undecided voters would prefer a Republican candidate who will be a check on Obama and the Democrats over a Democratic candidate who will help pass the Democratic agenda.
New York CD-24 Key Findings Page 1
The Bottom LineJohn has seized the momentum in this race – even as Dan Maffei and his allies have launched a significant negative campaign against him. Undecided voters look to break John’s way. Given Maffei’s personal negatives, we can anticipate Maffei and his friends doubling down on their false attacks.
John’s progress serves as a reminder that this seat has a strong history of sending Republicans to Congress. The Cook PVI rates the 24th District as a D-5 seat, but voters here have chosen a Republican in 15 of the 17 previous congressional elections. With the resources to expand his name ID and push back against the Democrats’ scare tactics, John stands an excellent chance to be the 16th Republican winner.
New York CD-24 Key Findings Page 2
