November 6, 20091 A Perspective on the Wisconsin Economy: Past, Present, and Future This...

November 6, 2009 1

A Perspective on the Wisconsin Economy:

Past, Present, and Future

This presentation is based on information supplied by the U.S. Bureau Of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Authority, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of New York,

Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, various divisions of the Wisconsin Department of Revenue. National forecasts are provided by Global Insight, Inc.

Wisconsin Economics Association

November 6, 2009

November 6, 2009 2

About Us• Who We Are

– Division of Research and Policy Analysis consists of 12 professionals: economists, information technology professionals, and policy analysts

• What We Do– Analyze the State and National Economy

• Wisconsin is one of only seven states with a dedicated econometric model to forecast – Results are published quarterly– Metropolitan forecasts annually

• Prepare specialized reports of interest on the state’s economy

– Estimate the State’s General Fund Revenues

– Prepare background analysis on state taxes and local finance

– Cost and analyze state and local tax proposals• Over 300 separate legislative bills • Nearly 75 budget proposals• Many more proposals that survive the “what-if” stage

• Find Our Reports Here– http://www.revenue.wi.gov/report/e.html#economy

http://www.revenue.wi.gov/report/e.html#economy

November 6, 2009 3

Today’s Discussion

1) The Bad News: The financial crisis brought the US economy to near collapse.

2) The Good News: Recovery is underway.

3) The Bad News: The drop was so deep that full recovery will take years.

4) The Good News: Wisconsin will match or exceed US growth in 2010.

5) Wisconsin fares better than some critics realize.

The US Was In the Midst of a Long Hard Recession

That Was Then…

November 6, 2009 5

Real GDP Growth

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2006

q1

2006

q2

2006

q3

2006

q4

2007

q1

2007

q2

2007

q3

2007

q4

2008

q1

2008

q2

2008

q3

2008

q4

2009

q1

2009

q2

Pct

Ch

an

ge

At A

nn

ua

l Ra

tes

U.S. At The End of A Very Long, Deep Recession

Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis . Shaded area indicates period of recession

Actual

November 6, 2009 6

Current Recession is Longest Since the Great Depression

Length of Recession, in Months

05

101520253035404550

1918

-19

1920

-21

1923

-24

1926

-27

1929

-33

1937

-38

1945

1948

-49

1953

-54

1957

-58

1960

-61

1969

-70

1973

-75

1980

1981

-82

1990

-91

2001

2007

-09

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

November 6, 2009 7

In the Beginning, Job Losses Lighter in 2007-09 Recession than the

Two Prior Recessions

Change In Employment

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Months After Start of Recession

Tho

usan

ds o

f Jo

bs

1990-91

2001

2007-09

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

November 6, 2009 8

Then This Happened:Financial Crisis Increased Interest Rates

Despite Fed Efforts to Cut Rates

Change in BAA Corporate Bond Rates

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-6 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Months From Recession Start

Ch

an

ge

In R

ate

s fr

om

6 m

on

ths

Be

fore

R

ece

ssio

n S

tart

sin

Ba

sis

Po

ints

1990-91

2001

2007-09

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

November 6, 2009 9

Financial Crisis Comparable to Great Depression Hits Late 2008

Spread Between BAA Corporate Bonds and Long-Term Treasuries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Pre

cent

1929-33

2007-09

Average

November 6, 2009 10

Recession On Top of A RecessionAfter Eight Months, Employment Losses Took a Nasty Drop Beginning

October 2008

Change In Employment

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Tho

usan

ds o

f Jo

bs

1990-91

2001

2007-09

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

November 6, 2009 11

Wisconsin Lost a Decade of Job Growth in Six Months

3-Month Change in Employment at Annual Rates

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

US

WI

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

November 6, 2009 12

Wisconsin Unemployment More than Doubled

Percent of Labor Force Unemployed, Seasonally Adjusted

9

4.4

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan

1998

Jul 1

998

Jan

1999

Jul 1

999

Jan

2000

Jul 2

000

Jan

2001

Jul 2

001

Jan

2002

Jul 2

002

Jan

2003

Jul 2

003

Jan

2004

Jul 2

004

Jan

2005

Jul 2

005

Jan

2006

Jul 2

006

Jan

2007

Jul 2

007

Jan

2008

Jul 2

008

Jan

2009

US

WI


November 6, 2009 13

Wealth Losses From EquitiesAbout the Same at a Comparable Stage

of the Great Depression

Equity Prices Measured by S&P Price Index

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Months Before/After Economy Peak (0)

S&

P In

de

x =

10

0%

for

Pe

ak

Mo

nth

2007-09

1929-33

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Standard and Poors

November 6, 2009 14

Household Net Worth Losses Nearly $14 Trillion from Peak

Household Net Worth

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs


November 6, 2009 15

Lost Decade:Industrial Production Drops to 1998 Levels

Production Dropped 15% Over 6 Quarters

US Total Industrial Production Index

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2000

-01

Ave

rage

= 1

00


November 6, 2009 16

Record Drop in Manufacturing Activity

ISM Manufacturing Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Source: Institute for Supply Management

November 6, 2009 17

Non-Manufacturing Dropped Faster Than Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index

3035404550556065


November 6, 2009 18

Kick Them While Their DownHousing Falls 55% in Seven Months

U.S. Housing Starts in Thousands

488

1,078

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics

November 6, 2009 19

Retail Sales Lost Four Years of Growth in Just Four Months

U.S. Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars, SAAR

300000

310000

320000

330000

340000

350000

360000

370000

380000

390000

Jan-

04

Apr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct-

04

Jan-

05

Apr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct-

05

Jan-

06

Apr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct-

06

Jan-

07

Apr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct-

07

Jan-

08

Apr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct-

08

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9Ju

l-09

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

November 6, 2009 20

Wisconsin’s Sales Collections Drop for the First Time Ever in FY2009

Percent Change in Wisconsin Sales Tax Collections

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

FY1985

FY1986

FY1987

FY1988

FY1989

FY1990

FY1991

FY1992

FY1993

FY1994

FY1995

FY1996

FY1997

FY1998

FY1999

FY2000

FY2001

FY2002

FY2003

FY2004

FY2005

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

November 6, 2009 21

Consumers Paying Down Credit CardsFor the First Time, Revolving Credit is Dropping

-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Jan

1 20

00

Apr 1

200

0

Jul 1

2000

Oct

1 200

0

Jan

1 20

01

Apr 1

200

1

Jul 1

2001

Oct

1 200

1

Jan

1 20

02

Apr 1

200

2

Jul 1

2002

Oct

1 200

2

Jan

1 20

03

Apr 1

200

3

Jul 1

2003

Oct

1 200

3

Jan

1 20

04

Apr 1

200

4

Jul 1

2004

Oct

1 200

4

Jan

1 20

05

Apr 1

200

5

Jul 1

2005

Oct

1 200

5

Jan

1 20

06

Apr 1

200

6

Jul 1

2006

Oct

1 200

6

Jan

1 20

07

Apr 1

200

7

Jul 1

2007

Oct

1 200

7

Jan

1 20

08

Apr 1

200

8

Jul 1

2008

Oct

1 200

8

Jan

1 20

09

Apr 1

200

9

Jul 1

2009

Ch

an

ge

ove

r P

rior

Ye

ar

$M

November 6, 2009 22

Household Debt Service Down to 2001 Levels

Household Debt Service Pct of Disposable Income

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

00q1

00q3

01q1

01q3

02q1

02q3

03q1

03q3

04q1

04q3

05q1

05q3

06q1

06q3

07q1

07q3

08q1

08q3

09q1

November 6, 2009 23

Saving More

Change in Net Savings

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

200

0-I

200

0-II

200

0-III

200

0-IV

200

1-I

200

1-II

200

1-III

200

1-IV

200

2-I

200

2-II

200

2-III

200

2-IV

200

3-I

200

3-II

200

3-III

200

3-IV

200

4-I

200

4-II

200

4-III

200

4-IV

200

5-I

200

5-II

200

5-III

200

5-IV

200

6-I

200

6-II

200

6-III

200

6-IV

200

7-I

200

7-II

200

7-III

200

7-IV

200

8-I

200

8-II

200

8-III

200

8-IV

200

9-I

200

9-II

200

9-III

Yea

r o

ver

Yea

r C

han

ge

$M

November 6, 2009 24

Wisconsin’s Income Taxes Drop for 1st Time Aside from an ATB Tax Cut

Pct. Change in Wisconsin Individual Income Tax Collections

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

FY1986

FY1987

FY1988

FY1989

FY1990

FY1991

FY1992

FY1993

FY1994

FY1995

FY1996

FY1997

FY1998

FY1999

FY2000

FY2001

FY2002

FY2003

FY2004

FY2005

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

Yellow Bars are years of income tax rate reductions

Wisconsin Was Not the Epicenter of the Recession

November 6, 2009 26

10 States Set Unemployment Records in 2009But Not Wisconsin


State Unemployment RateRelative to State Record High

More than 1% Below Record Level (36)State Record Set in 2009 (10)Within 1% of Record High Aug 2009 (5)

November 6, 2009 27

Wisconsin Economy Grew in 2008

Real GDP Per Capita, 2008Pct Change

Over 1% (16)0% to 1% (10)-1% to 0% (12)Below -1% (12)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

November 6, 2009 28

2008 Economic GrowthWisconsin Only Great Lakes State to Expand in 2008

Real GDP Per Capita, 2008Pct Change

Over 1% (16)0% to 1% (10)-1% to 0% (12)Below -1% (12)

November 6, 2009 29

Wisconsin Has Moved Up to the Great Lakes Average in GDP

Per Capita Real GDP

32,000

32,500

33,000

33,500

34,000

34,500

35,000

35,500

36,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Wisconsin

GREAT LAKES


November 6, 2009 30

And Nudged Ahead of the Great Lakes Average in Income

Wisconsin Per Capita Personal Income

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Per

cent

of G

reat

Lak

es A

vera

ge


November 6, 2009 31

Wisconsin Housing Prices Declined Only Slightly

Housing PricesFHFA Index 1st Qtr 2009

Over 0% (4)-1% to 0% (6)-3% to -1% (8)-5% to -3% (13)-10% to -5% (14)Below -10% (6) Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority

November 6, 2009 32

Wisconsin Housing PricesWeakness In SE Corner and North of Highway 29

This is Now…The Recovery Has Started

November 6, 2009 34

Substantial Growth In Third Quarter

Real GDP Growth

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2006

q1

2006

q2

2006

q3

2006

q4

2007

q1

2007

q2

2007

q3

2007

q4

2008

q1

2008

q2

2008

q3

2008

q4

2009

q1

2009

q2

2009

q3

2009

q4

2010

q1

2010

q2

2010

q3

2010

q4

Pct

Ch

an

ge

At A

nn

ua

l Ra

tes

Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis; Forecast--Global Insight, Inc. Shaded area indicates period of recession

Actual Forecast

November 6, 2009 35

Industrial Production Up Three Straight Months First Time Since 2007

Industrial Production Index

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-0

6

Nov-0

6

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-0

7

Nov-0

7

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-0

8

Nov-0

8

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-0

9

Mo

nth

ly P

erce

nt

Ch

ang

e


November 6, 2009 36

Manufacturing Moves To Recovery

ISM Manufacturing Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


November 6, 2009 37

So Does Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index

3035404550556065


November 6, 2009 38

Equity Markets Have Recovered from Early Year Losses

S&P 500 Index--Percent Change From January 1

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Source: Standard & Poors

November 6, 2009 39

Household Net Worth Increased in 2009 2nd Quarter

Household Net Worth

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs


November 6, 2009 40

Housing Crawling Out of the Bottom

Housing Starts in Thousands

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


November 6, 2009 41

Retail Sales On the Rise

300000

310000

320000

330000

340000

350000

360000

370000

380000

390000

Jan-

04

Apr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct-

04

Jan-

05

Apr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct-

05

Jan-

06

Apr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct-

06

Jan-

07

Apr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct-

07

Jan-

08

Apr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct-

08

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9Ju

l-09

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

November 6, 2009 42

Wisconsin Employment Stabilizing

3-Month Change in Employment at Annual Rates

-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%

US

WI ES

WI HS


November 6, 2009 43

Wisconsin Unemployment Improves Relative to US

Percent of Labor Force Unemployed, Seasonally Adjusted

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan

2007

Apr 2

007

Jul 2

007

Oct 2

007

Jan

2008

Apr 2

008

Jul 2

008

Oct 2

008

Jan

2009

Apr 2

009

Jul 2

009

Oct 2

009

US

WI


November 6, 2009 44

Still Below Historic HighUnemployment During Wisconsin’s Two Worst Post-War Recessions

Wisconsin Unemployment Rate

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36


Pe

rce

nt o

f La

bo

r F

orc

e

1981-19842007-2009


November 6, 2009 45

Impact of Recession Varies Substantially by County

It Will Be A Long Road Back

November 6, 2009 47

Financial Crisis Still In The Background

Spread Between BAA Corporate Bonds and Long-Term Treasuries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Pre

cent

2007-09

Average

November 6, 2009 48

Full Recovery Will Not Be Complete Until 1st Qtr 2011

12400

12600

12800

13000

13200

13400

13600

13800

14000

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES); US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Actual Forecast

2007Q4 Real GDP

November 6, 2009 49

Job Recovery Takes Even LongerEmployment Losses More Severe Than Output Losses

Cumulative Change From 4th Quarter 2007

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2007

:q4

2008

:q1

2008

:q2

2008

:q3

2008

:q4

2009

:q1

2009

:q2

2009

:q3

2009

:q4

2010

:q1

2010

:q2

2010

:q3

2010

:q4

2011

:q1

2011

:q2

2011

:q3

2011

:q4

2012

:q1

2012

:q2

2012

:q3

2012

:q4

Employment

Real GDP

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES); US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight

Actual Forecast

Wisconsin will Match or Outpace US growth in 2010.

November 6, 2009 51

GDP:Wisconsin Matches US in 2009

Outperforms in 2010

Real GDP

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Ove

r P

rio

r Y

ear

US

WI

November 6, 2009 52

Wisconsin Employment Prospects Improve in 2010

Employment Growth

-5.0-4.0

-3.0-2.0

-1.00.0

1.02.0

3.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% C

hg O

ver

Prio

r Y

ear

United States

Wisconsin

November 6, 2009 53

Net Hiring Resumes Early 2010Wisconsin Employment Growth

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2008Q1

2008Q2

2008Q3

2008Q4

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010Q3

2010Q4

Pe

rce

nt C

ha

ng

e a

t An

nu

al R

ate

s

November 6, 2009 54

Employment Growth in Metropolitan Areas of Wisconsin

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

Ap

ple

ton

Ea

u C

lair

e

Fo

nd

du

La

c

Gre

en

Ba

y

Ja

ne

sv

ille

La

Cro

ss

e

Ma

dis

on

Mil

wa

uk

ee

-W

au

ke

sh

a-

Os

hk

os

h-

Ne

en

ah

Ra

cin

e

Sh

eb

oy

ga

n

Wa

us

au

Wis

co

ns

in

2008 2009 2010

November 6, 2009 55

Regional Unemployment Rates2008-2010

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Ap

ple

ton

Ea

u C

lair

e

Fo

nd

du

La

c

Gre

en

Ba

y

Ja

ne

sv

ille

La

Cro

ss

e

Ma

dis

on

Milw

au

ke

e

Os

hk

os

h-

Ne

en

ah

Ra

cin

e

Sh

eb

oy

ga

n

Wa

us

au

Wis

co

ns

in

2008 2009 2010

November 6, 2009 56

Personal Income GrowthBy MSA, 2009-2010

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Ap

ple

ton

Eau

Cla

ire

Fo

nd

du

Lac

Gre

en B

ay

Jan

esvi

lle

La

Cro

sse

Mad

iso

n

Mil

wau

kee

Osh

kosh

-N

een

ah

Rac

ine

Sh

ebo

ygan

Wau

sau

Wis

con

sin

2009 2010

Wisconsin Better Off Than Its Critics Realize

November 6, 2009 58

Wisconsin Among States with an Unemployment Rate Significantly Below US Average

State Unemployment RateRelative To US Average

Significantly Lower (27)About the Same (15)Significantly Higher (9)

November 6, 2009 59

Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Lowest in the Great Lakes Region

State Unemployment RatesSeptember 2009

Under 5% (3)5% to 6.9% (8)7% to 8.9% (18)9% to 9.9% (7)10% or Higher (14)

November 6, 2009 60

BLS Reports Wisconsin in Top Half For Median Wage Rates

Median Wage RateMay 2008

Over $16 per hour (18)$15 to $16 per hour (6)$14 to $15 per hour (15)Less than $14 per hour (12)

November 6, 2009 61

Wisconsin Ranks 18th in Median Household Income

Source: US Bureau of the Census

Median Household Income2007-2008 Average

Over $60,000 (9)$50,000 to $60,000 (16)$45,000 to $50,000 (14)Less than $45,000 (11)

November 6, 2009 62

Wisconsin Per Capita Income In a Consistent Range

Wisconsin Per Capita Personal Income

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

1929

1932

1935

1938

1941

1944

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Pe

rce

nt

of

US

Ave

rag

e


November 6, 2009 63

Regional Price Parities (RPP)Wisconsin Personal Income Nearly Identical to U.S. Once

Differences In Regional Prices are RecognizedPer Capita Personal Income

$30,000

$31,000

$32,000

$33,000

$34,000

$35,000

$36,000

$37,000

$38,000

2005 -CurrentPrices

2005 - RPP 2006 -CurrentPrices

2006 - RPP

U.S.

Wisconsin

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,

Survey of Current Business, Nov. 2008

November 6, 2009 64

Health Insurance CoverageWisconsin Ranks 4th in the Nation

Health Insurance Coverage% Without Insurance

Less than 10% (9)10% to 15% (24)15% to 20% (14)Over 20% (4) Source: US Bureau of the Census

November 6, 2009 65

Wisconsin Ranks 30th in Population Growth

Population Change% Chg 2000-2008

Over 10% (13)6.2% to 10% (12)3.2% to 6.1% (12)0% to 3.2% (11)Less than 0% (2)


November 6, 2009 66

Wisconsin Has Net In-Migration

Net In-Migration (36)Net Out-Migration (15)

Total Migration 2000-2008


November 6, 2009 67

Wisconsin Ranks 18th in Business Taxes Below the US Average

Source: Ernst & Young, Total State and Local Business Taxes: 50 State Estimates for Fiscal Year 2008, January 2009

U.S. Average 4.9%

Business TaxesPercent of State GDP

Less than 4.1% (10)4.2% to 4.6% (12)4.7% to 5.2% (12)5.2% to 5.9% (11)6.0% or more (6)

November 6, 20091 A Perspective on the Wisconsin Economy: Past, Present, and Future This...

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