NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012...

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NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

Transcript of NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012...

Page 1: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE

PACIFIC RING OF FIRE

As of April 21, 2012

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

University of North Carolina, USA

Page 2: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

RING OF FIRE

Page 3: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

1,000 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

Page 4: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

MANY HISTORIC EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

Page 5: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

SOME OF THE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE

RING OF FIRE

Page 6: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS

ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

• THE PHILIPPINES: MOUNT PINATUBO

• USA: NORTHRIDGE, CA EARTHQUAKE

• CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: EARTHQUAKES

• SENDAI, JAPAN: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

• CHILE: VOLCANO PUYEUHE

Page 7: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

THE PHILIPPINES: MT. PINATUBO: JUNE 15, 1991

Page 8: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

Pinatubo was the second largest eruption of the 20th century and the

largest to impact a densely populated area.

Page 9: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE

4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8

4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8

Page 10: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE

• 57 DEATHS

• 9,000 INJURIES

• OVER $50 BILLION DAMAGE

• TRANSPORT-ATION SYSTEMS FAILED

Page 11: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: SEPT 2010 & FEB 2011 EARTHQUAKES

Page 12: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

TWO EARTHQUAKES SEVERELY CUT NEW

ZEALAND’S 2011 ECONOMIC GROWTH

A DEEP (33 KM) M7.1 AND A SHALLOW (4 KM) M6.3 QUAKE SIX

MONTHS APART COMBINE TO HALF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC

GROWTH

Page 13: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

M9.0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI

IMPACTED JAPAN WITH THE TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING

PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3

– 40 M TSUNAMI WAVES

2:46 pm MARCH 11, 2011

Page 14: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

JAPAN: TSUNAMI FOLLOWING M9.0

EARTHQUAKE

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CHILE’S VOLCANO PUYEHUE ERUPTED WITH A MASSIVE ASH CLOUD AND SPECTACULAR LIGHTNING

JUNE 4, 2011

Page 16: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

VOLCANO PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD: JUNE 4, 2011

Page 17: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD

The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere has impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.

Page 18: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD

The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.

Page 19: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

• CHILE: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

• COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ

Page 20: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

M8.8 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES CENTRAL CHILE:

3:34 am on February 27, 2010

Subduction Zone Quake 500 Times More Energy than the M7.0 Haiti Quake

800+ Deaths; 500+ Injured

Numerous Aftershocks

Tsunami Waves Travel Across Pacific

Estimated Loss: $30 Billion

Page 21: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

The Chilean people had to cope with the demands associated with: 1) a mega-quake, 2) a vigorous aftershock sequence with large events, 3) tsunami wave run up, 4) looting of the affluent sector, and 5) recovery after the loss of 15 percent of the GDP.

Page 22: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

It was a catastrophic experience, even though Chile has experienced many past earthquakes, has implemented a modern building code, and was well prepared to respond to all aspects of the emergency.

Page 23: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ, A 1988 DISASTER

Page 24: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

The lahar generated by the eruption of Nevada del Ruiz buried 25,000 people in the

city of Armero as they slept.

Page 25: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

SOME OF THE THREATENING EVENTS

ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

Page 26: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE

RING OF FIRE

• JAPAN: MOUNT FUJI

• JAPAN: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

• USA: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

• USA: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

• USA: CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

Page 27: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

MOUNT FUJI: JAPAN; A THREAT TO TOKYO

Page 28: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on the Hayward fault could be one of the USA's worst natural disasters.

Page 29: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,
Page 30: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

• A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.

Page 31: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. • The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

Page 32: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

THE GREAT TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

POSSIBLY THE WORLD’S FOREMOST IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

FOR WHICH JAPAN HAS BEEN PREPARING FOR 25 YEARS

Page 33: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

REGIONAL MAP

Page 34: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• The Government of Japan expects its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”

Page 35: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning and the time of day it occurs.

• Estimated property damage –- as much as $310 billion.

Page 36: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations

• Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses

Page 37: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LOS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LOS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

Page 38: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,
Page 39: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

• The magnitude 7.8 scenario earthquake will cause about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

Page 40: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

Page 41: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

CASCADIA SUDUCTION ZONE

Page 42: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON

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CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

• The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendiceno, is capable of producing earthquakes of M8 to M9 and a destructive tsunami if the M > 8.0.

Page 44: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

• Long-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a M9.0 CSZ earthquake.

• Long-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting tall buildings, long bridges, and long pipelines into vibration.

Page 45: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

• MEXICO: POPOCATEPETL

• USA: MOUNT RAINIER

• ECUADOR: SANGAY

• VANUATU: MOUNT YASUR

• GUATEMALA: SANTA MARIA

Page 46: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 20

Page 47: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

An estimated 5 million people in

the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Morelos would be affected by a major eruption of the

17,778 ft Popocatepetl

Page 48: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

MT RAINIER: TACOMA, WA

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Tacoma, the capital city is at high risk when Rainier

erupts

Page 50: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

SANGAY, ECUADOR

Page 51: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

Sangay’s steep-sided volcanic cone, which reaches a height of 17,158 feet (5,230 meters), has

been characterized by:1) a historical eruption in 1628, 2)

more or less continuous eruptions from 1728 until 1916, and 3)

continuous eruptions again from 1934 to the present.

Page 52: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

MOUNT YASUR, VANUATU

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Mount Yasur, an active volcano on Tanna Island and a part of the

archipelago nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific, has been erupting

nearly continuously for over a century with strombolian- type

eruptionsk, often occurring several times an hour.

Page 54: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

SANTA MARIA, GUATEMALA

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Santa Maria, a 12,375-foot (3,772-meter) tall stratovolcano, had a

catastrophic eruption in 1902, one of the largest eruptions of the 20th

century, that caused severe damage throughout southwestern

Guatemala

Page 56: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

SO---IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT THE ART AND SCIENCE OF MAKING ALL

CIRCUM-PACIFIC COMMUNITIES RESILIENT TO

EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES

Page 57: NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

MAKING THE RING OF FIRE’S FUTURE BETTER THAN ITS PAST

UNDER-STANDUNDER-STAND

IDENT-IFY

IDENT-IFY

HEARHEAR

PERSON-ALIZE

PERSON-ALIZE ACTACT

PERIOD OF PERIOD OF INTEGRATION INTEGRATION

1988-20121988-2012

WINDOW OF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OPPORTUNITY

20122012

PERIOD OF PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION IMPLEMENTATION

NOWNOW